An evolutionary real options framework for the design and management of projects and systems with complex real options and exercising conditions

To address the issue of decision support for designing and managing flexible projects and systems in the face of uncertainties, this paper integrates real options valuation, decision analysis techniques, Monte Carlo simulations and evolutionary algorithms in an evolutionary real options framework. The proposed evolutionary real options framework searches for an optimized portfolio of real options and makes adaptive plans to cope with uncertainties as the future unfolds. Exemplified through a test case, the evolutionary framework not only compares favorably with traditional fixed design approaches but also delivers considerable improvements over prevailing real options practices.     

From insect to Internet: Situated control for networked robot teams

Ant-like systems take advantage of agents' situatedness to reduce or eliminate the need for centralized control or global knowledge. This reduces the need for complexity of individuals and leads to robust, scalable systems. Such insect-inspired situated approaches have proven effective both for task performance and task allocation. The desire for general, principled techniques for situated interaction has led us to study the exploitation of abstract situatedness – situatedness in non-physical environments. The port-arbitrated behavior-based control approach provides a well-structured abstract behavior space in which agents can participate in situated interaction. We focus on the problem of role assumption, distributed task allocation in which each agent selects its own task-performing role. This paper details our general, principled Broadcast of Local Eligibility (BLE) technique for role-assumption in such behavior-space-situated systems, and provides experimental results from the CMOMMT target-tracking task. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Interactive visual steering--rapid visual prototyping of a common rail injection system

Interactive steering with visualization has been a common goal of the visualization research community for twenty years, but it is rarely ever realized in practice. In this paper we describe a successful realization of a tightly coupled steering loop, integrating new simulation technology and interactive visual analysis in a prototyping environment for automotive industry system design. Due to increasing pressure on car manufacturers to meet new emission regulations, to improve efficiency, and to reduce noise, both simulation and visualization are pushed to their limits. Automotive system components, such as the powertrain system or the injection system have an increasing number of parameters, and new design approaches are required. It is no longer possible to optimize such a system solely based on experience or forward optimization. By coupling interactive visualization with the simulation back-end (computational steering), it is now possible to quickly prototype a new system, starting from a non-optimized initial prototype and the corresponding simulation model. The prototyping continues through the refinement of the simulation model, of the simulation parameters and through trial-and-error attempts to an optimized solution. The ability to early see the first results from a multidimensional simulation space--thousands of simulations are run for a multidimensional variety of input parameters--and to quickly go back into the simulation and request more runs in particular parameter regions of interest significantly improves the prototyping process and provides a deeper understanding of the system behavior. The excellent results which we achieved for the common rail injection system strongly suggest that our approach has a great potential of being generalized to other, similar scenarios.     

Morphometric and some immunohistochemical characteristics of human choroids plexus stroma and psammoma bodies

Psammoma bodies (PBs) are one of many choroids plexus aging changes. The aim of our research was to perform the quantification of PBs' presence in human choroids plexus stroma, as well as to evaluate the characteristics of choroids plexus stroma in cases in which PBs were present. Afterwards, the observations of the histochemical analysis would be confirmed by immunohistochemical analysis. Choroid plexuses of 30 cadavers were used for the histochemical and, choroids plexuses of 15 cadavers in which PBs' presence was confirmed during the histochemical analysis, were used as material for the immunohistochemical analysis. Light microscopy, histochemical, immunohistochemical, and morphometric method were applied during the study. Classification of the cases was performed by cluster analysis. We observed increase of choroids plexus PBs' presence during the aging process. But this increase is not linear. Their presence is the largest in the second cluster that is younger than the third and older than the first. Nuclear morphometric parameters of the stroma in these cases showed that the cellular composition in this cluster is different than in other two and, that contain larger number of lymphoid cells. Immunohistochemical analysis showed PBs' positive reaction on vimentin, CD45R0, and LCA markers, while in their vicinity, as well as inside them, numerous T-cells were observed. So, the presence of CD45R0 and LCA-positive T cells, PBs' positive reaction on the same markers, indirectly connect these cells with PBs' formation process.     

On the Convergence of Temporal-Difference Learning with Linear Function Approximation

The asymptotic properties of temporal-difference learning algorithms with linear function approximation are analyzed in this paper. The analysis is carried out in the context of the approximation of a discounted cost-to-go function associated with an uncontrolled Markov chain with an uncountable finite-dimensional state-space. Under mild conditions, the almost sure convergence of temporal-difference learning algorithms with linear function approximation is established and an upper bound for their asymptotic approximation error is determined. The obtained results are a generalization and extension of the existing results related to the asymptotic behavior of temporal-difference learning. Moreover, they cover cases to which the existing results cannot be applied, while the adopted assumptions seem to be the weakest possible under which the almost sure convergence of temporal-difference learning algorithms is still possible to be demonstrated.     

Kernel least-squares models using updates of the pseudoinverse

Sparse nonlinear classification and regression models in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) are considered. The use of Mercer kernels and the square loss function gives rise to an overdetermined linear least-squares problem in the corresponding RKHS. When we apply a greedy forward selection scheme, the least-squares problem may be solved by an order-recursive update of the pseudoinverse in each iteration step. The computational time is linear with respect to the number of the selected training samples.     

Interactive visual analysis of families of function graphs

The analysis and exploration of multidimensional and multivariate data is still one of the most challenging areas in the field of visualization. In this paper, we describe an approach to visual analysis of an especially challenging set of problems that exhibit a complex internal data structure. We describe the interactive visual exploration and analysis of data that includes several (usually large) families of function graphs f_i(x, t). We describe analysis procedures and practical aspects of the interactive visual analysis specific to this type of data (with emphasis on the function graph characteristic of the data). We adopted the well-proven approach of multiple, linked views with advanced interactive brushing to assess the data. Standard views such as histograms, scatterplots, and parallel coordinates are used to jointly visualize data. We support iterative visual analysis by providing means to create complex, composite brushes that span multiple views and that are constructed using different combination schemes. We demonstrate that engineering applications represent a challenging but very applicable area for visual analytics. As a case study, we describe the optimization of a fuel injection system in diesel engines of passenger cars     

Definition of the optimal freezing rate-2. Investigation of the physico-chemical properties of beef M. longissimus dorsi frozen at different freezing rates

The influence of freezing rate on weight loss during the freezing, thawing and cooking, on water-binding capacity, on sensory and other physico-chemical properties of beef M. longissimus dorsi was investigated. The changes in myofibrillar proteins in muscle samples frozen at different freezing rates were also investigated.

The greatest weight losses during the freezing, thawing and cooking were registered at slow freezing procedures (freezing rate of 0·22 cm/h and 0·29 cm/h), when the meat was tougher and less soft. The solubility of myofibrillar proteins was least from those muscles frozen at such freezing rates.

The freezing of samples at freezing rates of 3·33 cm/h and 3·95 cm/h had less influence on their physico-chemical characteristics. The solubility of the myofibrillar proteins from such samples was greatest, and the cooked samples were the most tender.

From analysis of the results it was concluded that optimal conditions for meat freezing seem to be those when the average freezing rate is 2–5 cm/h.     

Estimation and setting starting values in ARMA algorithms

For the given observations set of the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) process, the likelihood function depends, not only on model parameters, but on the starting values of the input and output. Therefore, it is called theconditional likelihood function. Theunconditional likelihood function can be obtained in two ways. The first is to set the starting values to zero, as is often done, and the second is to set them to the properly estimated values. The difference between these two types of likelihood functions is significant when the given data sequence is short, and any of the zeros of the moving average part is close to the boundary of the unit circle.In this paper the direct method of starting value estimation and its application to two off-line ARMA estimation algorithms, the maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm and the iterative inverse filtering (ITIF) algorithm, is proposed. Experimental results prove both increased efficiency and stability of these algorithms.The importance of setting the starting values properly is also significant when the recursive algorithm, with previously estimated parameters, has to be restarted. The advantage of the proposed reinitialization method is shown on the recursive lattice algorithm working in the block mode.     

Transition layer thickness in microlaminar deposits

A theoretical analysis was carried out on the change of composition of a deposit obtained by the dual pulse method of forming laminar metal foils, with transition from a low current to a high current pulse, both in the galvanostatic and the potentiostatic mode of deposition. It was shown that the existence of a transition layer of varying composition between a layer of pure metal 1 and a layer consisting predominantly of the metal 2 is an inherent consequence of the electrochemical process, primarily because of an induction period in the concentration polarization with respect to ions of metal 1. The importance of this transition layer increases as the thickness of the layers of the two metals decreases. Eventually this limits the possibility of obtaining a sharp boundary between the layers, when the nanometre region of layer thickness is reached. Equations are given for calculating the deposition current density and rate of stirring of the electrolyte which provide a deposit of a required level of metal 1 in the layer of metal 2, as well as a required sharpness of the boundary between two layers. Experimental proof of the correctness of the analysis was sought. It was found that significant changes in the properties of the deposit occur in the same range of layer thickness in which the transition of the composition takes places.Nomenclature _c,1, a_c,2 transfer coefficient of the cathodic processes - C interfacial capacitance - C₁, C₂ concentration of the ions of metals 1 and 2 at the interface r - C ₀ ¹ , C ₀ ² concentration of ions of the metals 1 and 2 in solution - D ₁ diffusion coefficient for the diffusion of ions of the metal 1 - E _r,1,E _r,2 reversible potentials of metals 1 and 2, respectively - F the Faraday constant - J ₀ ¹ ,J ₀ ² exchange current density of the metals 1 and 2, respectively - M ₁,M ₂ atomic weights of the metals 1 and 2, respectively - kinematic viscosity of solution - ₁, ₂ densities of the metals 1 and 2 respectively - rotation speed (r.p.s.) - z number of electrons exchanged in the deposition process This paper is dedicated to Professor Brian E. Conway on the occasion of his 65th birthday, and in recognition of his outstanding contribution to electrochemistry.