Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

FMR and EXAFS modeling of heat-treated Fe-rich and Co-rich TM-M thin films

Ion-beam sputter-deposited alloy films of Co/sub 74/Fe/sub 6/B/sub 15/Si/sub 5/ and Fe/sub 75/Ni/sub 5/B/sub 15/Si/sub 5/ were examined for their magnetic and structural properties. Films were characterized by ferromagnetic resonance, vibrating sample magnetometry, and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) analysis. Using atomic parameters deduced from EXAFS modeling and fitting procedures, magnetic properties were calculated with no adjustable parameters. Correlation between perpendicular FMR measurements and EXAFS first-shell modeling suggests a low-temperature formation of cobalt-borides in the Co/sub 74/Fe/sub 6/B/sub 15/Si/sub 5/ alloy. Annealed Fe/sub 75/Ni/sub 5/B/sub 15/Si/sub 5/ samples did not display evidence of structural and/or magnetic instabilities until the onset of long-range crystallization near T/sub ann/=400 degrees C.<>     

A construction of codes with exponential error bounds on arbitrarydiscrete memoryless channels

This correspondence proposes an explicit construction of codes achieving capacity for arbitrary discrete memoryless channels. The proposed code is obtained by concatenating variable inner codes and an algebraic geometry code. Further, we clarify that the proposed code achieves the error exponent obtained by Forney for concatenated codes     

A probabilistic method for the design of power grounding systems

An improved multivariable, probabilistic method for the safety analysis of power grounding systems is presented. The application of this method is demonstrated in four examples. The first three examples illustrate the practical evaluation of one new and two existing substation grounding grids when the substation is connected to an overhead distribution system. The fourth example ascertains the relative impact of a difference between the S curve of IEC Publication 479 and Dalziel's equation for the allowable body current used in ANSI/IEEE Std 80-1986 on the validity of an exposure model based on the requirements of Std 80. In this example, the statistical data on ground faults have been taken from actual system records. Further possible refinements of the exposure model are discussed