Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

Design of software systems based on axiomatic design

The ability to utilize fully automated flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) or develop reliable computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) systems will depend on our ability to develop reliable and reusable software for large complex systems on a timely basis. To date, software design has not gone very far beyond the ad hoc trial-and-error stage. Consequently, the development of software is slow, expensive, unreliable, and unmanageable. The purpose of this paper is to provide a scientific basis for designing software. The approach used here is that of axiomatic design, which is based on two design axioms: the Independence Axiom and the Information Axiom. The axiomatic approach is based on the recognition of the following common elements in design: the existence of independent domains (i.e. the consumer domain, the functional domain, the physical domain, and the process domain); the need to map between various domains during the design process; the decomposition of the characteristic vectors (i.e. functional requirements, design parameters, and process variables) in their respective domains; the zig-zagging required between the domains for decomposition; and the need to satisfy the design axioms during the design process. The axiomatic approach discussed in this paper provides decision making tools for software design in addition to systematic means of knowledge and data representation, synthesis and analysis of software, and the construction of the module-junction structure diagram.     

Laser coupling to single-mode fibre using graded-index lenses and compact disc 1.3 ?m laser package

A 1.3 ?m laser in a compact disc package is coupled to single-mode fibre using two graded-index lenses in a nearly confocal scheme. An increase in the alignment tolerance at the lens-lens interface by a factor of six suggests the design for a potentially very low-cost connectorised laser package. The coupling efficiency of approx. 6% (?12 dB) is shown to be adequate for local loop applications.     

Nucleation of solidification in liquid droplets

Analytical and numerical methods have been developed to analyze the solidification kinetics of a mass of liquid droplets dispersed in a fluid or solid matrix using classical nucleation theory. The resulting analytical expressions and numerical calculations can be compared directly with calorimetric measurements of the droplet solidification exotherms to obtain information about the nucleation mechanism. With increasing contact angle at the solid-liquid-matrix triple point, the solidification onset, peak, and end temperatures and exothermic peak height all decrease sharply and the droplet solidification exotherms become broader. Decreasing either the droplet radius or the number of potential catalytic nucleation sites produces a similar but smaller effect. Distributions in droplet radius, contact angle, and nucleation sites have no effect on the solidification peak temperature, but the droplet solidification exotherms become broader and more symmetric. The solidification onset temperature is independent of cooling rate in the calorimeter, but the solidification peak and end temperatures decrease and the exothermic peak height increases with increasing cooling rate. Predicted droplet solidification exotherms are in excellent agreement with detailed experimental measurements on 10-nm-radius Cd droplets embedded in a solid Al matrix. Analytical predictions give best-fit values of 43 deg and 430 for the contact angle and the number of potential catalytic nucleation sites per droplet, respectively; numerical predictions give best-fit values of 43 deg and 750 for the contact angle and the number of potential catalytic nucleation sites per droplet, respectively.     

Lateral habits ofn-alkane single crystals

The lateral crystal habits ofn-alkanes (n-C _n H_2n+2) have been observed just below the melting points by optical microscopy forn=18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 34, 44, 50 and 65. The shape of the crystals depends on the crystal phase: circular in the rotator phase, lenticular in phase C, and diamond in the low-temperature phase. The rounding of the lateral shape can be explained in terms of thermal roughening of the lateral faces in the disordered phases at high temperature.     

Peripheral nerve injury as a complication from orthopedic operation

We report a case of pulmonary carcinosarcoma. Surgery is required for this rare mixed type, biphasic tumor. It is generally considered to be a malignant formation issuing from a single cell line but with a two-way differentiation into epithelial and conjunctive components. There is a differentiation continuum between spindle-cell carcinomas (also called monophasic sarcomatoid carcinoma) and carcinosarcoma (or biphasic sarcomatoid carcinoma) leading to debate concerning the immunohistochemical and ultrastructural features.     

The predominant contribution of oligopeptide transporter PepT1 to intestinal absorption of beta-lactam antibiotics in the rat small intestine

Although recent evidence suggests that certain beta-lactam antibiotics are absorbed via a specific transport mechanism, its nature is unclear. To confirm whether peptide transport in the rat can be largely ascribed to the intestinal oligopeptide transporter PepT1, the transporter has been functionally characterized and its significance in the intestinal absorption of beta-lactam antibiotics was evaluated. For evaluation of transport activity complementary RNA (cRNA) of rat PepT1 was synthesized in-vitro and expressed in Xenopus laevis oocytes. cRNA induced uptake of several beta-lactam antibiotics and the dipeptide [14C]glycylsarcosine; this was specifically inhibited by various dipeptides and tripeptides but not by their constituent amino acids or by tetra- or pentapeptides. The transport activity of PepT1 for beta-lactam antibiotics correlated well with their in-vivo intestinal transport and absorption. Furthermore, mutual inhibitory effects on uptake were observed between glyclsarcosine and beta-lactam antibiotics. Hybrid depletion of the functional expression of rat PepT1 in oocytes injected with rat intestinal epithelial total mRNA was studied using an antisense oligonucleotide corresponding to the 5'-coding region of PepT1. In oocytes injected with rat mRNA pre-hybridized with the antisense oligonucleotide against rat PepT1, the uptake of [14C]glycylsarcosine was almost completely abolished, whereas its uptake was not influenced by a sense oligonucleotide for the same region of PepT1. Similarly, the uptake of beta-lactam antibiotics was also reduced by the antisense oligonucleotide against rat PepT1. These results demonstrate that the intestinal proton-coupled oligopeptide transporter PepT1 plays a predominant role in the carrier-mediated intestinal absorption of beta-lactam antibiotics and native oligopeptides in the rat.     

Infrequent mutation of the H-cadherin gene on chromosome 16q24 in human breast cancers

To investigate the molecular basis of altered expression of the H-cadherin gene, we used polymerase chain reaction-single strand conformation polymorphism and DNA sequencing to examine the H-cadherin gene in 48 primary breast cancers in which loss of the long arm of chromosome 16 had been detected. We identified no mutations other than somatic 5-bp deletion within the coding region in a single tumor. The very low frequency of mutation found in these experiments suggests that H-cadherin is usually not a primary target for carcinogenesis in human breast cancers, and that reduction of its expression is likely to be a consequence of some other genetic event(s).     

Viscoelastic response of solid rocket motor components for service life assessment

A methodology for determining the response of rocket motor materials and bondlines to thermal loadings by measuring their dynamic mechanical properties is reported. The critical temperatures at which debonding and/or propellant cracking occur and the number of thermal cycles required to induce failure were evaluated. These results were compared with those from instrumented rocket motors subjected to similar thermal loadings. A model, developed for fibre reinforced composites, was applied to the propellant-inhibitor bimaterial obtained from a rocket motor. The internal energy dissipation due to a lack of perfect adhesion at the propellant–inhibitor interface, tan δ_adh, was used to give an indication of the failure mode of the bondline (i.e., adhesive failure at the interface or cohesive failure in the propellant) and the bond adhesion parameter, C, was related to the bond strength measured by rectangular bond-in-tension tests. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Pulmonary complications in hematological diseases

A clinical study was conducted to compare the analgesic effect of clonidine with those of sumatriptan and their mixture and their effects on hemodynamics. 40 patients undergoing elective total hysterectomy were randomly divided into 4 groups in terms of the epidurally administered drugs with 10 patients in each group (group C1: clonidine 150 micrograms, group C2: clonidine 75 micrograms, group S: sumatriptan 6 mg and group S + C: clonidine 75 micrograms + sumatriptan 3 mg). MAP, HR, SpO2, VT VAS, VRS and ePDT were measured in the initial 4 h. The demographic data and the doses of intraoperative local anesthetics among the 4 groups were not statistically different. It was found that no significant difference in the pre- and postadministration values of HR, SpO2 and VT. A obvious reduction of MAP appeared in the groups of C1 and C2, but in the other groups the hemodynamical parameters were stable. The groups of C1, C2 and S + C showed significant increase in VAS and VRS, along with increase of ePDT when compared with the pre-drug level. There was no obvious alteration in group S after the drug administration. It was concluded that (1) single use of sumatriptan is ineffective in the dose given in this study; (2) small dose (150 micrograms and 75 micrograms) of clonidine has epidurally analgesic effects; (3) combined use of sumatriptan and clonidine is an acceptable way in epidural analgesia, in terms of its analgesic effect and hemodynamic changes.