Bayesian assessment of the characteristic concrete compressive strength using combined vague-informative priors

Bayesian statistics can be used in order to determine the characteristic value of an unknown distribution based on a limited number of test samples. In cases where no previous test results are available, most often a Bayesian method based on vague prior information is used. The assumption of a vague or uniform prior results in a conservative approach in cases where only a limited number of test results are available. However, in case of concrete, prior information on concrete strength can be found in literature or country-specific prior information can be determined. Therefore, the use of a combined vague-informative prior is of particular interest, more specifically in the form of scaled inverse-χ² distributions that can be used for updating the standard deviation of the strength distribution of concrete. The differences between the use of a vague and a combined vague-informative prior are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Because prior information is taken into account, the uncertainty regarding the standard deviation of the predictive strength distribution is significantly reduced.     

DOPO‐Based Phosphorus‐Containing Methacrylic (Co)Polymers: Glass Transition Temperature Investigation

A two‐step synthetic procedure is designed for preparing new flame‐retardant methacrylic monomers containing 9,10‐dihydro‐9‐oxa‐10‐phosphaphenanthrene‐10‐oxide (DOPO) as a substituent side group. DOPO and methacrylate moieties are linked by linear aliphatic hydrocarbon spacers (3 to 11 carbon atoms). Copolymerization with methyl methacrylate is carried out leading to copolymers containing between 2 and 10 wt% phosphorus. All homo‐ and copolymers exhibit a unique glass transition temperature (T_g ). A new group contribution for DOPO‐based substituent is extracted that leads to reasonable estimations of T_g s of other published polymers. The Fox equation provides a good estimation of T_g s for most copolymers and for physical blends of poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) and DOPO. When using monomers having three and four carbon atoms in the hydrocarbon spacer, the T_g of copolymers remains close to that of PMMA over a wide range of composition.     

Transient and steady states of Gd2Zr2O7 and 2ZrO2∙Y2O3 (ss) interactions with calcium magnesium aluminium silicates

Reactions between calcium magnesium aluminium silicates (CMAS) and Gd₂Zr₂O₇ or 2ZrO₂?Y₂O₃ (ss) are investigated within a temperature range of 1200–1300 °C and for durations of 1 h–100 h. The evolution of CMAS penetration depth in Gd₂Zr₂O₇ and 2ZrO₂?Y₂O₃ (ss) pellets varies considerably depending on the interaction time. A quantitative analysis of the nature and composition of phases observed in stationary conditions (powder/powder interaction) is performed by SEM-FEG coupled with WDS analyses using micro-agglomerated nanoparticles of Gd₂Zr₂O₇ and 2ZrO₂?Y₂O₃. Faster kinetics of the gadolinium-based system are illustrated through an analysis of the morphology of the reaction area and of the resulting CMAS tightness of reaction products. The compositions and quantities of reaction products observed at equilibrium are very similar for the two systems, but transient states are significantly different.     

Selecting creep models using Bayesian methods

The development of creep prediction models has been a field of extensive research and many different models have already been proposed. This paper presents an evaluation method of the prediction quality of creep models for specific experimental data. Within the scope of this paper, the model according to Bockhold and the model according to Heidolf are examined. First, the parameters of the models are identified with respect to existing experimental data. This is done using a sampling based approach of Bayesian updating developed by Ba?ant and Chern. In extension to the method by Ba?ant and Chern, the uncertainty coming from inaccurate measurement data is taken into account in the definition of the likelihood function within the updating algorithm. The more inaccurate the measurements are, the more uncertain the estimated model parameters and model prognoses become. The identification is performed for different short- and long-term creep tests. The intension is not to validate these models intensively, but to evaluate their prognoses for the individually tested creep behavior. The results show that the identifiability of the models?? parameters is different for both models and consequently the models prognoses differ in their uncertainties. Second, the models are evaluated using two different strategies: the stochastic model selection according to MacKay, Beck and Yuen based on the Ockham factor, and a comparison of the uncertainties taking into account parameter and model uncertainties. The results of the evaluation of the creep models differ for various experimental tests. Model Heidolf is more flexible and gives a better fit to the data, however, it fails to predict reliable long-term creep deformations using only short-term measurements compared to model Bockhold. Comparing the evaluation methods, the analysis of uncertainties of the creep prognosis proofs to be more stable than the evaluation using the stochastic model selection.     

Neuroprotective Role of Liver Growth Factor “LGF” in an Experimental Model of Cerebellar Ataxia

Cerebellar ataxias (CA) comprise a heterogeneous group of neurodegenerative diseases characterized by a lack of motor coordination. They are caused by disturbances in the cerebellum and its associated circuitries, so the major therapeutic goal is to correct cerebellar dysfunction. Neurotrophic factors enhance the survival and differentiation of selected types of neurons. Liver growth factor (LGF) is a hepatic mitogen that shows biological activity in neuroregenerative therapies. We investigate the potential therapeutic activity of LGF in the 3-acetylpiridine (3-AP) rat model of CA. This model of CA consists in the lesion of the inferior olive-induced by 3-AP (40 mg/kg). Ataxic rats were treated with 5 µg/rat LGF or vehicle during 3 weeks, analyzing: (a) motor coordination by using the rota-rod test; and (b) the immunohistochemical and biochemical evolution of several parameters related with the olivo-cerebellar function. Motor coordination improved in 3-AP-lesioned rats that received LGF treatment. LGF up-regulated NeuN and Bcl-2 protein levels in the brainstem, and increased calbindin expression and the number of neurons receiving calbindin-positive projections in the cerebellum. LGF also reduced extracellular glutamate and GABA concentrations and microglia activation in the cerebellum. In view of these results, we propose LGF as a potential therapeutic agent in cerebellar ataxias.     

Introduction to the special issue on IEEE NEWCAS 2017

A contactless detector is presented for evaluating hand tremors caused by exercise-induced fatigue and early Parkinson’s disease. The device consists of a spiral coil, a microcontroller, and an inductive sensor circuitry. Theory shows that the resonant frequency of the circuitry increases when the distance between the hand and the spiral coil decreases, thus small variations of distance from tremor can be detected from the changes of resonant frequencies. A mechanical hand was built for experiments to simulate human hand tremors with repeatability at a fixed frequency. The magnitudes and frequencies of the tremors in the mechanical hand were quantitatively identified using the inductive sensor. Hence, feasibility and accuracy of the contactless hand tremor detector were determined. A triaxial accelerometer was used for comparison. By comparing spectral distributions and magnitudes of the tremors, the inductive sensor performed better than the accelerometer. The detector was applied to evaluate actual hand tremors of three subjects who had undergone exercise to induce tremors. The tremor waveform amplitudes of the subjects were quantitatively analyzed by the standard deviations method. The increased signal energies of exercise-induced tremor within 8–12 Hz were confirmed. Then, a subject with early Parkinson’s disease was evaluated by the proposed hand tremor detector. The tremor magnitudes and frequencies of the patient hand were quantitatively identified within in 4–7 Hz. Therefore, the new contactless hand tremor detector can be developed as a clinical instrument for monitoring the fatigue symptoms of post-exercise and diagnosing the early Parkinson’s disease.