Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems

The development of ensemble-based 'probabilistic' climate forecasts is often seen as a promising avenue for climate scientists. Ensemble-based methods allow scientists to produce more informative, nuanced forecasts of climate variables by reflecting uncertainty from various sources, such as similarity to observation and model uncertainty. However, these developments present challenges as well as opportunities, particularly surrounding issues of experimental design and interpretation of forecast results. This paper discusses different approaches and attempts to set out what climateprediction.net and other large ensemble, complex model experiments might contribute to this research programme.     

Biomimetic peptides that engage specific integrin-dependent signaling pathways and bind to calcium phosphate surfaces

Many important matrix proteins involved in bone remodeling contain separate domains that orient the protein on hydroxyapatite and interact with target cell receptors, respectively. We have designed two synthetic peptides that mimic the dual activities of these large, complex proteins by binding to calcium phosphate minerals and by engaging integrin-dependent signaling pathways in osteoblasts. The addition of either PGRGDS from osteopontin or PDGEA from collagen type I to the HAP-binding domain of statherin (N15 domain) did not alter its alpha-helical structure or diminish its affinity for hydroxyapatite. Immobilized N15-PGRGDS bound MC3T3-E1 osteoblasts predominantly via the alpha v beta 3 integrin and induced focal adhesion kinase (FAK) phosphorylation at comparable levels to immobilized osteopontin. Immobilized N15-PDGEA bound MC3T3-E1 osteoblasts predominantly through the alpha 2 beta 1 integrin and induced similar levels of FAK phosphorylation. Although both peptides induced FAK phosphorylation with similar time courses, only the N15-PDGEA peptide induced ERK1/2 phosphorylation, showing that these peptides are also capable of engaging integrin-specific signaling pathways. This peptide system can be used to study adhesion-dependent control of signaling in the context of the relevant biomineral surface and may also be useful in biomaterial and tissue engineering applications.     

Sensitivity analysis techniques applied to a revised model of molybdenum biokinetics

A revised model of molybdenum biokinetics in humans was recently developed on the basis of experimental data gathered in specific investigations conducted with stable tracers. The model can be used for radiation protection purposes, and it is also a suitable working tool for designing new investigations aimed at further improvements to the model. For the latter goal, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to determine the most significant model parameters in relation to output measurements performed in studies of molybdenum metabolism. A typical sensitivity analysis approach was adopted, considering the effects in variation of model parameters on the time courses of model outputs such as urinary excretion and blood clearance. A recent new sensitivity technique was considered too, based on the calculation of the so-called generalised sensitivity functions. This combines the sensitivities of the model output with respect to model parameters (as in the typical sensitivity analysis method), with the sensitivities of parameter estimates with respect to changes in model outputs. The results obtained in this analysis suggests that data collected in the first 7 h are critical for the definition of the process of blood clearance and related parameters, whereas reliable information at later times is required for a proper characterisation of urinary excretion.     

Purinoceptor activation of chloride transport in cystic fibrosis and CFTR-transfected pancreatic cell lines

The regulation of chloride efflux from cystic fibrosis pancreatic adenocarcinoma cells (CFPAC-1) and wild-type CFTR-transfected CFPAC-1 cells (TPAC) was compared. Forskolin (10 microM) stimulated chloride efflux from the corrected TPAC cells but not from CFPAC-1 cells. Chloride efflux from both cell types was activated by thapsigargin (0.5 microM). The nucleotides ATP and UTP and the non-hydrolyzable ATP analogue, adenosine 5'-O-(3-thio) triphosphate (ATPgammaS), stimulated chloride efflux from both cell types. None of the other P2 purinoceptor agonists investigated elicited a response. The order of potency was ATP > or = UTP > or = ATPgammaS. Adenosine (10-100 microM) activated choride efflux from the TPAC but not the CFPAC cell line with no increase in intracellular cyclic AMP. Small but statistically significant inhibitions of the adenosine-(50 microM)-stimulated increase in chloride efflux were elicited by the A1 receptor antagonist 8-cyclopentyl-1,3-dipropylxanthine (CPX, 100 nM) and the A2 receptor antagonist 3,7-dimethyl-1-propylargylxanthine (DMPX, 10 microM). The A2A receptor antagonist 8-(3-chlorostyryl)caffeine (CSC, 100 nM) had no significant effect. These results provide evidence for the regulation of chloride efflux by P2Y2 purinoceptors in genetically-corrected and CF pancreatic cell lines. Studies with adenosine receptor antagonists indicate some possible involvement of A1 and A2 (but not A2A) receptors in the adenosine stimulation of chloride efflux, but the relatively small effects of the inhibitors coupled with lack of increase in cyclic AMP and a response only in the CFTR-transfected cells also suggests a possible direct effect of adenosine on CFTR.     

The impact of antigen density and antibody affinity on antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity: relevance for immunotherapy of carcinomas

We studied the sensitivity of human melanoma (Bro strain) xenografts to drugs of the nitrosoalkylurea (NAU) class: nitrosomethylurea (NMM), karmustin (BCNU), nimustin (ACNU), nitrulin, and ADEKO. High antitumor activity of NAM was shown when the drugs were applied not only at the early, but also at the late stages of tumor progression (tumor mass 400 and 1200 mg, respectively). The therapeutic effect of the drugs was estimated with the use of criteria characterizing the kinetics of tumor regression, increased life span, and survival of treated animals. After early administration of the drugs (Day 4 after tumor transplantation), 67% and 50% of animals survive under the influence of nitrulin and ACNU, respectively, while the rate of tumor regression increased in the sequence nitrulin < karmustin < NMM < ACNU. After late administration (11 days after tumor transplantation), NMM was most effective at increasing survival (35% of survived animals by 35 days of observation), while the rate of tumor regression increased in the sequence ADEKO < NMM < karmustin < nitrulin < ACNU.     

Novel diversity in Th1, Th2 type differentiation of hemagglutinin-specific T cell clones elicited by natural influenza virus infection in three major haplotypes (H-2b,d,k)

The serotonin 5-HT3 receptor, a ligand-gated ion channel, has previously been shown to be present on a subpopulation of brain nerve terminals, where, on activation, the 5-HT3 receptors induce Ca2+ influx. Whereas postsynaptic 5-HT3 receptors induce depolarization, being permeant to Na+ and K+, the basis of presynaptic 5-HT3 receptor-induced calcium influx is unknown. Because the small size of isolated brain nerve terminals (synaptosomes) precludes electrophysiological measurements, confocal microscopic imaging has been used to detect calcium influx into them. Application of 100 nM 1-(m-chlorophenyl)biguanide (mCPBG), a highly specific 5-HT3 receptor agonist, induced increases in internal free Ca2+ concentration ([Ca2+]i) and exocytosis in a subset of corpus striatal synaptosomes. mCPBG-induced increases in [Ca2+]i ranged from 1.3 to 1.6 times over basal values and were inhibited by 10 nM tropisetron, a potent and highly specific 5-HT3 receptor antagonist, but were insensitive to the removal of external free Na+ (substituted with N-methyl-D-glucamine), to prior depolarization induced on addition of 20 mM K+, or to voltage-gated Ca2+ channel blockade by 10 microM Co2+/Cd2+ or by 1 microM omega-conotoxin MVIIC/1 microM oemga-conotoxin GVIA/200 nM agatoxin TK. In contrast, the Ca2+ influx induced by 5-HT3 receptor activation in NG108-15 cells by 1 microM mCPBG was substantially reduced by 10 microM Co2+/Cd2+ and was completely blocked by 1 microM nitrendipine, an L-type Ca2+ channel blocker. We conclude that in contrast to the perikaryal 5-HT3 receptors, presynaptic 5-HT3 receptors appear to be uniquely calcium-permeant.     

Opinions of disease management programs among medical directors of managed care organizations

Anastomotic infection is an uncommon but potentially life-threatening complication after lung transplantation. We recently encountered three lung transplant recipients with invasive candidal anastomotic infection. Two patients were admitted with dyspnea and fever, and one asymptomatic infection was detected on surveillance bronchoscopy. All three patients were treated similarly with a combination of intravenous amphotericin B, inhaled amphotericin B, and oral fluconazole. The combination of systemic and inhaled antifungal agents successfully treated all three cases of anastomotic infection.