Untangling decision tree and real options analyses: a public infrastructure case study dealing with political decisions,structural integrity and price uncertainty

Managerial flexibility in infrastructure investment and replacement decisions adds value. Real options analysis (ROA) captures this value under uncertain market prices. The concept of ROA is that future unfavourable payoffs can be deferred as soon as more information about market prices becomes available. The popularity of ROA is seen in a growing number of case studies on real assets. Despite its increasing popularity, ROA has not gained a foothold in public infrastructure decision making. One of the difficulties in the application of ROA is the required estimation of market variables. To avoid this, a simplified but not correct version of ROA is easily applied, referred to as a Decision Tree Approach (DTA) to ROA. Another difficulty is that infrastructure assets are subject to other types of uncertainties, defined here as asset uncertainties. This study investigates the value of managerial flexibility in a public infrastructure replacement decision. The uncertainty drivers are the strength of a bridge, political decisions regarding traffic flow and the price development of construction costs. Three valuation approaches are compared: DTA, ROA and the DT approach to ROA. Although it is complex, ROA certainly adds value in public infrastructure decision making when market price uncertainty is prevalent. However, in the absence of reasonable estimates of market variables, the DT approach to ROA is the best alternative. In the absence of market price uncertainties, ROA should be avoided DTA is to be preferred.     

Native Liquid Chromatography and Mass Spectrometry to Structurally and Functionally Characterize Endo-Xylanase Proteoforms

Xylanases are of great value in various industries, including paper, food, and biorefinery. Due to their biotechnological production, these enzymes can contain a variety of post-translational modifications, which may have a profound effect on protein function. Understanding the structure–function relationship can guide the development of products with optimal performance. We have developed a workflow for the structural and functional characterization of an endo-1,4-β-xylanase (ENDO-I) produced by Aspergillus niger with and without applying thermal stress. This workflow relies on orthogonal native separation techniques to resolve proteoforms. Mass spectrometry and activity assays of separated proteoforms permitted the establishment of structure–function relationships. The separation conditions were focus on balancing efficient separation and protein functionality. We employed size exclusion chromatography (SEC) to separate ENDO-I from other co-expressed proteins. Charge variants were investigated with ion exchange chromatography (IEX) and revealed the presence of low abundant glycated variants in the temperature-stressed material. To obtain better insights into the effect on glycation on function, we enriched for these species using boronate affinity chromatography (BAC). The activity measurements showed lower activity of glycated species compared to the non-modified enzyme. Altogether, this workflow allowed in-depth structural and functional characterization of ENDO-I proteoforms.     

Reinvestigation of the antioxidant properties of conjugated linoleic acid

Despite repeated suggestions that antioxidant activity of conjugated linoleic acid (CLA), a collective of conjugated dienoic isomers of linoleic acid, underlies its reported anticarcinogenic and antiatherosclerotic effects, the antioxidant properties of CLA remain ill-defined. Therefore, this study was undertaken to gain more insight into the mechanism of potential CLA antioxidant activity. It was tested whether CLA could protect membranes composed of 1-palmitoyl-2-linoleoyl phosphatidylcholine (PLPC) from oxidative modification under conditions of metal ion-dependent or-independent oxidative stress. Progress of oxidation was determined by direct spectrophotometric measurement of conjugated diene formation and by gas chromatographic/mass spectrometric analysis of fatty acids. The oxidative susceptibility of CLA was higher than that of linoleic acid, and comparable to arachidonic acid. When oxidation of PLPC (1.0 mM) was initiated using the lipid-soluble 2,2′-azobis(2,4-dimethylvaleronitrile) or the water-soluble 2,2′-azobis(2-amidinopropane) hydrochloride, the radical scavengers vitamin E and butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT) at 0.75 μM efficiently inhibited PLPC oxidation, as evident from a clear lagphase. In contrast, 0.75 μM CLA did not have any significant effect on PLPC oxidation. Inhibition of PLPC oxidation by higher concentrations of CLA appeared due to competition, not to an antioxidant effect. When oxidation of PLPC was initiated by hydrogen peroxide/Fe²⁺ (500 μM/0.05–20 μM), both vitamin E (1 μM) and ethylene glycol-bis(aminoethyl ether) tetraacetic acid (50 μM) efficiently inhibited PLPC oxidation. However, CLA (1–50 μM) did not show a clear protective effect under any of the conditions tested. We conclude that CLA, under these test conditions, does not act as an efficient radical scavenger in any way comparable to vitamin E or BHT. CLA also does not appear to be converted into a metal chelator under metal-ion dependent oxidative stress, as had previously been suggested. On the basis of our observations, a role for CLA as an antioxidant does not seem plausible.     

Microstructural analysis of MTR fuel plates damaged by a coolant flow blockage

In 1975, as a result of a blockage of the coolant inlet flow, two plates of a fuel element of the BR2 reactor of the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK•CEN) were partially melted. The fuel element consisted of Al-clad plates with 90% ²³⁵U enriched UAl_x fuel dispersed in an Al matrix. The element had accumulated a burn up of 21% ²³⁵U before it was removed from the reactor. Recently, the damaged fuel plates were sent to the hot laboratory for detailed PIE.Microstructural changes and associated temperature markers were used to identify several stages in the progression to fuel melting. It was found that the temperature in the center of the fuel plate had increased above 900-950 °C before the reactor was scrammed. In view of the limited availability of such datasets, the results of this microstructural analysis provide valuable input in the analysis of accident scenarios for research reactors.     

The actin content of different muscles from beef and pork

In the literature 3-methylhistidine (3-MeHis) is mentioned as a parameter for the determination of meat content. Because of the variable molar ratio of 3-MeHis in the myofibrillar protein myosin, this indicator cannot be used without some restriction. However, the content of 3-MeHis in the myofibrillar protein actin is constant. Moreover, actin is relatively heat-stable in comparison with other muscle proteins. These facts made actin an interesting parameter for determination of the meat (protein) content of heated and raw meat products.

Fast protein liquid chromatography (FPLC) was used to separate from a meat extract an actin-containing fraction without myosin. The actin content of the meat was calculated from its content in the fraction. The latter was determined by means of a 3-MeHis method.

Several muscles of the beef and pig carcass were examined for their actin contents. Generally, the actin values were comparable with the data reported in the literature.

The influence of heat treatment was also studied on one type of beef muscle. The determined actin content was not affected up to a temperature of 85°C.     

UO2 dissolution in Boom Clay conditions

The solubility of uranium dioxide (UO₂) was measured in real and synthetic Boom Clay waters with varying concentrations of humic acids and carbonate under reducing conditions at 20 °C. Uranium concentrations in function of time suggest the reduction of U(VI) to U(IV) by the humic acids which is occurring faster in real clay water than in synthetic clay waters. Humic acids induce also a competition to complex U(VI) in carbonate-containing solution, but they are not able to control the uranium concentration at high bicarbonate concentration (0.02 mol dm⁻³). Nevertheless they may play a role at low carbonate concentration. In our experimental conditions, the geochemical calculations indicate that two uranium secondary phases (U₄O₉ and UO_2(c)) are susceptible to control the uranium concentration in solution. These calculations are in good agreement with results of the X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. At the end of tests, uranium concentrations reach steady-state values between 3 × 10⁻⁸ and 5 × 10⁻⁸ mol dm⁻³ in the bicarbonate-rich solutions. Although these concentrations are considered as conservative, they are 10-100 times higher than in natural Boom Clay. The consequence is that spent fuel could slowly dissolve in the interstitial clay water undersaturated with respect to UO₂/UO_2+x of the fuel.     

Time to clinical stability in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia: implications for practice guidelines

CONTEXT: Many groups have developed guidelines to shorten hospital length of stay in pneumonia in order to decrease costs, but the length of time until a patient hospitalized with pneumonia becomes clinically stable has not been established. OBJECTIVE: To describe the time to resolution of abnormalities in vital signs, ability to eat, and mental status in patients with community-acquired pneumonia and assess clinical outcomes after achieving stability. DESIGN: Prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study. SETTING: Three university and 1 community teaching hospital in Boston, Mass, Pittsburgh, Pa, and Halifax, Nova Scotia. PATIENTS: Six hundred eighty-six adults hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to resolution of vital signs, ability to eat, mental status, hospital length of stay, and admission to an intensive care, coronary care, or telemetry unit. RESULTS: The median time to stability was 2 days for heart rate (< or =100 beats/min) and systolic blood pressure (> or =90 mm Hg), and 3 days for respiratory rate (< or =24 breaths/min), oxygen saturation (> or =90%), and temperature (< or =37.2 degrees C [99 degrees F]). The median time to overall clinical stability was 3 days for the most lenient definition of stability and 7 days for the most conservative definition. Patients with more severe cases of pneumonia at presentation took longer to reach stability. Once stability was achieved, clinical deterioration requiring intensive care, coronary care, or telemetry monitoring occurred in 1% of cases or fewer. Between 65% to 86% of patients stayed in the hospital more than 1 day after reaching stability, and fewer than 29% to 46% were converted to oral antibiotics within 1 day of stability, depending on the definition of stability. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates of time to stability in pneumonia and explicit criteria for defining stability can provide an evidence-based estimate of optimal length of stay, and outline a clinically sensible approach to improving the efficiency of inpatient management.     

Comparison of factor VIII-related antigen and erythrocyte sedimentation rate in outpatient management of vasculitis

Electroimmunodiffusion (Laurell rocket) determinations of factor VIII-related antigen in plasma were ordered to determine the cost/benefit ratio for factor VIII-related antigen as a putative test for endothelial damage in suspected vasculitis. Twenty-seven consecutive patients referred for vasculitis or suspected vasculitis were identified and followed up for an average of 9.1 +/- months (range: one to thirty-three months) in a prospective, unblinded study performed in a clinic, associated with a 1054-bed inner-city university hospital. There was no difference in Westergren erythrocyte sedimentation rate (WESR) in patients with final diagnosis of systemic vasculitis (SV) (38 +/- 12 mm/hour) compared to those without vasculitis (NV) (27 +/- 7) as the final diagnosis. The mean plasma concentration of factor VIII-related antigen was significantly elevated in SV (344 +/- 100%) when compared with NV (147 +/- 39%) (P < 0.016). The factor VIII-related antigen test in this study was 2.56 times more likely (crude odds ratio) than the WESR to contribute to a change in diagnosis or therapy (P = 0.016). Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) for factor VIII-related antigen (abnormal at greater than 220% of the normal value) were both 70%. PPV and NPV for WESR were 56% and 86%, respectively. The factor VIII-related test was less cost-effective than the WESR in the follow-up period unless it was important to define complete remission or differentiate vasculitis flare from infection. The authors conclude that factor VIII-related antigen is a useful test in the initial diagnosis of vasculitis.