Forecasting Financial Failure of Firms via Genetic Algorithms

Given a wide amount of possible ratios available for constructing a LOGIT model for forecasting bankruptcy, this paper provides a computational search methodology, only guided by data, for selecting the financial ratios employed in the model. This procedure is based on genetic algorithms which are used to explore the universe of models made available by all possible existing financial ratios (with very redundant information). This search process of the correct model is guided by the Schwarz information criterion. As an empirical illustration, the methodology is applied to forecasting the failure of firms in the Spanish building industry using annual public accounting information.     

An efficient algorithm for optimal routing applied to convoy merging manoeuvres in urban environments

This paper describes an innovative routing strategy for intelligent transportation units willing to perform merging manoeuvres with a moving convoy. In particular, we consider a transportation unit located inside a city (pursuer unit), and which wishes to join a convoy that is constantly moving around the city. We first describe a solution that considers idealistic conditions, i.e., the traveling time along each street is constant. We then go on to improve our first approach to deal with the realistic random nature of the traveling times experienced by the pursuer and by the convoy leader. Our search strategy applies Dynamic Programming to achieve a meeting point that is optimal in two ways: on one hand, the optimal destination is the one closest to the current pursuer??s position; on the other hand, the optimal meeting point must minimize the time that elapses until the pursuer meets the convoy (considering that the pursuer must always arrive first). Calculating the optimal path to every possible destination is highly inefficient, error prone and time consuming. On the contrary, we propose an efficient search strategy that will achieve the meeting point and the path to it, both optimally and in a very short time. This enables the real-time application of our approach either for finding new solutions or for re-planning old ones owing to unexpected real-conditions.     

Optimizing location and size of rural schools in Chile

The Chilean Ministry of Education oversees preschool, primary, and secondary education in both urban and rural areas. Many parts of Chile are sparsely populated and there are currently over 4,000 rural schools (almost 38% of all schools in Chile) educating 9.5% of the students in the country. Many of the rural schools are small with only one teacher responsible for instruction of all local students (multigrade schools). The geographical distribution of the rural schools has not been coordinated and this has resulted in unequal utilization of existing schools and some unreasonably long travel distances by students. Good management of the rural schools is fundamental to meeting Chile's goal of providing quality education to its citizens. Seeking to improve the situation, the Ministry of Education ordered a study of the optimal location and size of rural schools with the general goals of reducing the number of lesser quality multigrade schools and reducing student travel distances while maintaining reasonable costs. This paper presents results of this study obtained using an integer linear program that has been embedded in a geographical information system. We present computational results for the entire country. Recommendations include where to open new rural schools as well as where to expand, reduce, close, or leave unchanged existing schools. We show how recommendations are sensitive to key parameters such as the cost of transportation.     

Cyclic staff scheduling: optimization models for some real-life problems

In this work, we propose a general integer programming model to address the staff scheduling problem, flexible enough to be easily adapted to a wide-range of real-world problems. The model is applied with slight changes to two case studies: a glass plant and a continuous care unit, and also to a collection of benchmark instances available in the literature. The emphasis of our approach is on a novel formulation of sequence constraints and also on workload balance, which is tackled through cyclic scheduling. Models are solved using the CPLEX solver. Computational results indicate that optimal solutions can be achieved within a reasonable amount of time.     

Do Intelligent Leaders Make a Difference? The Effect of a Leader's Emotional Intelligence on Followers' Creativity

This research investigates the connection between emotional intelligence (EI) and creativity. This was studied by exploring: (i) an association between leaders' EI and their followers' creative output; (ii) an association between six sub‐dimensions of EI and creativity; and (iii) a mediating role of climate in the link between EI and creativity. Two questionnaires (one for leaders and one for employees) were used to collect data in a hospital. Sixty‐six usable leader‐employee dyads were collected. The findings confirmed a positive relationship between leaders' EI and employees' creativity. At an EI's sub‐dimensions level, the current research showed an association between creativity, on one hand, and self‐encouragement and understanding of own emotions, on the other. Finally, no mediating effect of climate was observed. The absence of a mediating effect is interesting, since it suggests a direct link between leaders' EI and employees' creativity, regardless of the climate. This is important, since it calls attention to the paramount role of leaders in shaping individual and organizational behaviours as far as creativity is concerned. The paper also discusses implications for management and practice.     

Generalization of recommender systems: Collaborative filtering extended to groups of users and restricted to groups of items

In this paper we present a collaborative filtering method which opens up the possibilities of traditional collaborative filtering in two aspects: (1) it enables joint recommendations to groups of users and (2) it enables the recommendations to be restricted to items similar to a set of reference items. By way of example, a group of four friends could request joint recommendations of films similar to “Avatar” or “Titanic”. In the paper, using experiments, we show that the traditional approach of collaborative filtering does not satisfactorily resolve the new possibilities contemplated; we also provide a detailed formulation of the method proposed and an extensive set of experiments and comparative results which show the superiority of designed collaborative filtering compared to traditional collaborative filtering in: (a) number of recommendations obtained, (b) quality of the predictions, (c) quality of the recommendations. The experiments have been carried out on the databases Movielens and Netflix.     

Validation of SeaWiFS-derived chlorophyll for the Rio de la Plata Estuary and adjacent waters

The South Atlantic Ocean near the Río de la Plata Estuary is a highly dynamic region that encompasses four different water bodies: the Río de la Plata, the continental shelf and the Brazil and Malvinas currents. Bio-optical measurements obtained during 6–11 November 1999 provided the initial field data for validating Sea viewing Wide Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS)-derived chlorophyll imagery for this region. The turbid waters of the Río de la Plata Estuary showed the highest variability and complexity in water optical properties, while the offshore waters of the Brazil Current had the lowest. In most cases, the estimates of chlorophyll using the SeaWiFS algorithm were higher than in situ measured values.     

Effect of drying methods on the reactivity of chitosan towards Maillard reaction

The effect of drying methods on chitosan reactivity towards Maillard reaction during storage of dried chitosan–lactose systems was investigated. Two different structural forms of chitosan, scaffold and microspheres, were prepared. Then they were dried by lyophilization or using supercritical fluid technology (SF-CO₂) and stored with lactose under controlled temperature conditions (60 °C) and water activity (a_w = 0.65). The drying method produced slight modifications on the chitosan structure especially in samples submitted to SF-CO₂ treatment. Differences were more evident in the reactivity of chitosan–lactose systems during storage. Maillard reaction development was assessed by quantification of a new compound which originated from the acid hydrolysis of Amadori compounds (NFMD) resulting from chitosan–lactose interactions, and not detected in the acid hydrolysates of freshly prepared chitosan-lactose systems. Maillard reaction was influenced by different factors such as the manner of lactose addition, structure of chitosan (microspheres and scaffolds) and drying method. Lyophilized chitosan in the form of microspheres with lactose, presented the highest values of NFMD (428.45 mg/100 g of sample). The determination of this compound could be used as an index of the progress of Maillard reaction.     

Chryseobacterium meningosepticum in a parapneumonic effusion in a chronic kidney disease patient on hemodialysis

Chryseobacterium meningosepticum is an uncommon human pathogen, which is an inhabitant of soil and water. It should be included in the list of suspected nosocomial infections, especially in patients with immunocompromised status. C. meningosepticum infections are not common but are clinically important because the organism is naturally resistant to multiple antibiotics. We report a case where the bacterium was isolated from the pleural fluid from a chronic kidney disease patient on hemodialysis, who developed pneumonia with complicated parapneumonic effusion. To the best of our knowedge, this is the first case where C. meningosepticum is isolated from the pleural effusion, from India.     

MnO2-Based Electrochemical Supercapacitors on Flexible Carbon Substrates

Manganese dioxide films were grown on large area flexible carbon aerogel substrates. Characterization by x-ray diffraction confirmed α-MnO₂ growth. Three types of films were compared as a function of hexamethylenetetramine (HMTA) concentration during growth. The highest concentration of HM TA produced MnO₂ flower-like films, as observed by scanning electron microscopy, whose thickness and surface coverage lead to both a higher specific capacitance and higher series resistance. Specific capacitance was measured to be 64 F/g using a galvanostatic setup, compared to the 47 F/g-specific capacitance of the carbon aerogel substrate. Such supercapacitor devices can be fabricated on large area sheets of carbon aerogel to achieve high total capacitance.