Symbolic hierarchical analysis in currency markets: An application to contagion in currency crises

In this paper we introduce a new method to describe dynamical patterns of the real exchange rate co-movements time series and to analyze contagion in currency crisis. The method combines the tools of symbolic time series analysis with the nearest neighbor single linkage clustering algorithm. Data symbolization allows us obtaining a metric distance between two different time series that is used to construct an ultrametric distance. By analyzing the data of various countries, we derive a hierarchical organization, constructing minimal-spanning and hierarchical trees. From these trees we detect different clusters of countries according to their proximity. We show that this methodology permits us to construct a structural and dynamic topology that is useful to study interdependence and contagion effects among financial time series.     

A study on the use of statistical tests for experimentation with neural networks: Analysis of parametric test conditions and non-parametric tests

In this paper, we focus on the experimental analysis on the performance in artificial neural networks with the use of statistical tests on the classification task. Particularly, we have studied whether the sample of results from multiple trials obtained by conventional artificial neural networks and support vector machines checks the necessary conditions for being analyzed through parametrical tests. The study is conducted by considering three possibilities on classification experiments: random variation in the selection of test data, the selection of training data and internal randomness in the learning algorithm.The results obtained state that the fulfillment of these conditions are problem-dependent and indefinite, which justifies the need of using non-parametric statistics in the experimental analysis.     

Boosting k-nearest neighbor classifier by means of input space projection

The k-nearest neighbors classifier is one of the most widely used methods of classification due to several interesting features, such as good generalization and easy implementation. Although simple, it is usually able to match, and even beat, more sophisticated and complex methods. However, no successful method has been reported so far to apply boosting to k-NN. As boosting methods have proved very effective in improving the generalization capabilities of many classification algorithms, proposing an appropriate application of boosting to k-nearest neighbors is of great interest.Ensemble methods rely on the instability of the classifiers to improve their performance, as k-NN is fairly stable with respect to resampling, these methods fail in their attempt to improve the performance of k-NN classifier. On the other hand, k-NN is very sensitive to input selection. In this way, ensembles based on subspace methods are able to improve the performance of single k-NN classifiers. In this paper we make use of the sensitivity of k-NN to input space for developing two methods for boosting k-NN. The two approaches modify the view of the data that each classifier receives so that the accurate classification of difficult instances is favored.The two approaches are compared with the classifier alone and bagging and random subspace methods with a marked and significant improvement of the generalization error. The comparison is performed using a large test set of 45 problems from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. A further study on noise tolerance shows that the proposed methods are less affected by class label noise than the standard methods.     

A multivariable control scheme in a two-stage anaerobic digestion system described by partial differential equations

This paper deals with the design and application of a nonlinear multivariable controller in an anaerobic digestion system (AD) carried out in two interconnected fixed bed bioreactors. The proposed control scheme is derived from a mathematical model of the AD system described by a set of partial differential equations and consists of an estimator and two nonlinear control laws. The first law is developed to regulate the volatile fatty acids in the first bioreactor while the second aims at maintaining the chemical oxygen demand at predetermined set-points in the second bioreactor. The performance of the control algorithm is evaluated via numerical simulations in the face of load disturbances, parameter kinetic uncertainties and set-point changes. Stability and convergence properties of the proposed control scheme are also addressed in this paper.     

Virtual wind tunnel: An alternative approach for the analysis of bridge behaviour under wind effects

The study of bridge responses under wind-induced loads is based upon full aeroelastic model testing or hybrid methods which use section model tests and subsequent computer analysis. Both methodologies present several strong points and some shortcomings, specially related with the visualization of the bridge dynamic behaviour. Nowadays, advances and improvements in computational power and computer aided design technologies make possible a new way towards the feasible design of long span bridges considering its aerodynamic and aeroelastic behaviour. The virtual wind tunnel (VWT) technique developed by the authors joins together accurate section model testing with computer aided design in order to obtain a detailed computer visualization of the complete bridge behaviour under wind flow. The results obtained for the Tacoma Narrows Bridge and the Messina Strait Bridge are presented.     

A comprehensive quality model for service-oriented systems

In a service-oriented system, a quality (or Quality of Service) model is used (i) by service requesters to specify the expected quality levels of service delivery; (ii) by service providers to advertise quality levels that their services achieve; and (iii) by service composers when selecting among alternative services those that are to participate in a service composition. Expressive quality models are needed to let requesters specify quality expectations, providers advertise service qualities, and composers finely compare alternative services. Having observed many similarities between various quality models proposed in the literature, we review these and integrate them into a single quality model, called QVDP. We highlight the need for integration of priority and dependency information within any quality model for services and propose precise submodels for doing so. Our intention is for the proposed model to serve as a reference point for further developments in quality models for service-oriented systems. To this aim, we extend the part of the UML metamodel specialized for Quality of Service with QVDP concepts unavailable in UML.

Aerodynamic optimization via multi-objective micro-genetic algorithm with range adaptation,knowledge-based reinitialization,crowding and ε-dominance

In this study, an optimization of the airfoil of a sailplane is carried out by a recently developed multi-objective genetic algorithm based on microevolution, containing crowding, range adaptation, knowledge-based reinitialization and ε-dominance. Its efficiency was tested on a set of test problems. The results are encouraging, suggesting that very small populations can be used effectively to solve real-world multi-objective optimization problems in many cases of interest.     

An observational comparison of the older and younger bus passenger experience in a developing world city

This study was an unobtrusive observational analysis of 333 older and younger bus passengers in Guadalajara, Mexico. A set of data were collected for each observed passenger, as well as more general observations related to driver behaviour, bus design and bus service characteristics. There were significant differences between older and younger passengers in terms of boarding and alighting times, use of handrails, seat location preferences, passenger stability and coping strategies in order to maintain postural stability. The conditions of travel are conducive to a poor passenger experience for the older passengers in particular. Although the problems may be attributed to bus design and driver behaviour typical of that in developing countries, they are also influenced by the wider transport infrastructure, and a lack of a regulatory regime which places drivers under time pressure and in direct competition with each other.

Practitioner Summary: Bus services must cater for all ages of passengers, including the elderly. This unobtrusive observational study investigated the passenger experience in a developing world city. Bus and wider service design were found to compromise the journey experience, with the older users being particularly negatively impacted. Design recommendations are provided.