Stochastic Simulation of Construction Bidding and Project Management

Abstract: A stochastic simulation model of a project management game was developed to assist in training estimators in developing bidding strategies in construction. This paper discusses the development of the conceptual gaming model for bidding on construction projects and the implementation of the model on portable software. The model simulates the actual bidding in construction by creating projects, initiating random phenomena, and keeping track of the performance of the individual players of the game. Upon conclusion of the game the winner is selected as the player that maximizes his relative return on the original investment assigned to him by the game. The paper describes the underlying construction management concepts and the bidding process in general. The database management model is then detailed focusing on the requirements and strategy behind the development of the various databases. The paper also describes the various models utilized in simulating the involved random processes. Finally the operation of the program is introduced and its use in educating construction engineers and managers is highlighted.     

Environmental exposure to lead and its correlation with biochemical indices in children

Lead is a global concern because of its ubiquity in the environment and known to be associated with abnormal neurobehavioral and cognitive development of young children. There is no study from India to describe a composite profile of blood lead and its biochemical influences in children. The present study was aimed at determining the proportion of children with >10 mug/dL blood lead levels (BLLs), association between BLLs, and sociodemographic characteristics, if any, and alterations in biochemical indices in the blood as an underlying mechanism of lead intoxication. A total of 62 children (4--12 y) of Lucknow and nearby areas were recruited to determine BLLs, delta-amimolevulinic acid dehydratase (delta-ALAD) activity, catalase (CAT) activity, and malondialdehyde (MDA) and glutathione (GSH) levels in the blood. Mean level of blood lead was 7.47+/-3.06 microg/dL (2.78--15.0) and 29%-exceeded 10 microg/dL, CDC intervention level. The BLLs were found to be significantly influenced by social status, area of residence, source of water supply, maternal educational status (p<0.001), type of house, and proximity to traffic density (p<0.01). delta-ALAD was significantly lower in the group of children with BLLs 11.39+/-1.39 microg/dL when compared to children with BLLs 7.11+/-1.25 microg/dL and 3.93+/-0.61 microg/dL (p=0.0007, 0.0005, respectively). However, CAT activity was higher in the groups of children with higher blood levels than with lower BLLs (p=0.0159, 0.0001, respectively). There was an increase in MDA level with a concomitant decrease of GSH in children with BLLs 11.39+/-1.39 microg/dL compared with those of children with BLLs 7.11+/-1.25 microg/dL and 3.93+/-0.61 microg/dL (p=0.0001, 0.0002, and p=0.0001, respectively). There was statistically significant correlation of BLLs with delta-ALAD (r=-0.44, p=0.00035), MDA (r=0.46, p=0.00018), GSH (r=-0.62, p=0.00001), and CAT (r=0.44, p=0.00035). Significantly, CAT activity, MDA, and GSH levels were in turn, found to be correlated with delta-ALAD (r=-0.45, p=0.00024; r=-0.43, p=0.00053; r=0.43, p=0.00053, respectively). Results of the present study indicate a declining trend of BLLs in children when compared with those reported from metropolitan cities of India when leaded gasoline was in practice and that the BLLs were significantly associated with biochemical indices in the blood which have the potential to be used as biomarkers of lead intoxication.     

The characterisation of friction stir welding process effects on stiffened panel buckling performance

The introduction of advanced welding methods as an alternative joining process to riveting in the manufacture of primary aircraft structure has the potential to realise reductions in both manufacturing costs and structural weight. However, welding processes can introduce undesirable residual stresses and distortions in the final fabricated components, as well as localised loss of mechanical properties at the weld joints. The aim of this research is to determine and characterise the key process effects of friction stir welding assembly methods on stiffened panel static strength performance. Utilising experimentally validated finite element modelling methods, it is demonstrated that welding induced residual stresses have a significant influence, and that collapse behaviour is less sensitive to advanced process effects and process effect magnitudes than panel initial buckling behaviour.     

Haloacetic acids and trihalomethanes in finished drinking waters from heterogeneous sources

Trihalomethanes (THM) and haloacetic acids (HAA) are the most frequent chlorination by-products (CBP) in finished drinking waters. Traditionally, THM have been used as surrogates for CBP although the quantitative association between THM and other CBP is not well established. This problem is addressed in the present study from the analysis of THM and HAA in drinking water samples from four Spanish regions, representing areas with very different CBP composition, e.g. between 86 and 8.0 microg/l of THM and 50-3.0 microg/l of HAA.The resulting dataset exhibit a statistically significant correlation between total THM and HAA (Pearson's correlation coefficient, r(p)=0.815,p<0.0005). Furthermore, specific HAA are highly correlated with specific THM or their combinations. Accordingly, multivariate linear regression analysis of the concentrations observed show that the levels in total and specific HAA can be predicted from the THM content. These results are relevant for epidemiological studies on health effects from CBP exposure since they usually involve comparison of populations consuming waters of very distinct quality.     

Radionuclide contamination of foods imported into Iraq following the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident

Since early 1986, a monitoring program for radionuclides in imported foods has been carried out by the Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission. After the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident in the Soviet Union, the program was expanded; our laboratory was officially designated by the Iraqi Government to measure radionuclide activity concentrations in foodstuff imported from countries known to be severely contaminated by Chernobyl radioactive fallout. Gamma-spectrometric analysis was used. Food items such as powdered milk, lamb meat, poultry, cereals and grains imported into Iraq before the Chernobyl accident did not contain any detectable fission products. However, all lamb meat, 81% of the lentil, 44% of the powdered milk and chick-pea, and 17% of the roast beef samples were contaminated with 137Cs or 134Cs and 137Cs. The highest 137Cs contamination levels found were 82, 147, 420, 6 and 4 Bq kg-1, respectively. Contamination by 134Cs was approximately 50% of the values given above.     

Organochlorine insecticides and PCB'S in sediments of Lake St. Claire (1970 and 1974) and Lake Erie (1971).

Sediments were collected on a grid from Lake St. Clair in 1970 and 1974 and from Lake Erie in 1971 and analysed for organochlorine insecticides and PCBs. Suspended solids were centrifuged from pumped water in the Detroit River in 1974. Residues of DDE, TDE and DDT were highest in sediment from the Western Basin (70.3 ppb) Lake Erie and lowest in sediment from Lake St. Clair (6.6 ppb in 1970 and 2.6 ppb in 1974). The Central and Eastern Basins of Lake Erie contained residues that fell about mid-way between these means. TDE was the predominant component of ΣDDT and was followed by DDE at approximately half this residue. While DDT represented the lowest component in lake sediments, it was the highest component in suspended solids from the Detroit River.HEOD was present in the entire lake system but at only a fraction of the level of ΣDDT. The mean residue in Lake St. Clair was only 0.1 ppb while Lake Erie sediments contained 1–2 ppb. The highest mean residue (3.6 ppb) was in suspended solids in the Detroit River. Other organochlorine insecticides were only occasionally identified.PCB residues in sediment were approximately 3 times higher than the total organochlorine insecticide residue, being highest in the Western Basin (252 ppb) and lowest in Lake St. Clair (19 ppb in 1970 and 10 ppb in 1974). The Detroit River and Central and Eastern Basins of Lake Erie had intermediate residues.Residues in Lake St. Clair indicated a decline in ΣDDT, HEOD, and PCB residues between 1970 and 1974, and this coincided with the restrictions on the materials. A core sample from the Western Basin of Lake Erie indicated that ΣDDT, HEOD and PCB began to accumulate in sediments in 1958, 1953, and 1956, respectively. This appeared to indicate a lag period of 2–5 years after wide-spread use occurred.     

Predictions of nitrate diffusion in sediment using horizontal attenuated total reflection (HATR) by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometry

Using a novel and simple method based on horizontal attenuated total reflection (HATR) by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometry, the effective diffusion coefficient, De, of nitrate in a contaminated anthropogenic sediment was estimated as 7.34 x 10(-6)cm2 s(-1). This method, which requires as little as 1 mL of sediment sample, was able to measure the De of a chemical species with a reproducibility of +/-3% in about 5h. Based on this De and a pre-determined nitrate reduction rate, the profiles of nitrate concentration in two sediment columns were satisfactorily predicted from a mathematical model. Results showed that the profile in this aged sediment depended mainly on the diffusion of nitrate and, only to a much lesser degree, the rate of nitrate reduction. Measurements in 55 anthropogenic sediment samples collected from five locations and various depths of a contaminated site further showed that the De of nitrate increased linearly with the water content of the sediment, but decreased with the sediment density. The technique demonstrated in this study shall be applicable for the risk assessment of toxic pollutants in contaminated sediments, and for planning the spatial and time intervals of nitrate injection strategy in bioremediation.     

A new mathematical model to evaluate simazine removal in three different immobilized-biomass reactors

A new mathematical model based on the cinetical Langmuir equation is developed to interpret and predict the effectiveness of simazine (SZ) removal in immobilized-biomass reactor (IBR), to consider herbicide-support affinity (Cx), and herbicide-cell affinity (Cy). Three solid supports: sepiolite monolith, granular sepiolite, and alginate were used in pilot-scale reactors that were inoculated with Klebsiella planticola DSZ. The abiotic process was analysed by measuring the SZ sorption capacity of the reactor supports. Sepiolite monolith showed the maximum value for herbicide-support affinity (28.02+/-0.9%). The effectiveness of the biotic process was estimated considering the formation of biomass and SZ biodegradation. Granular sepiolite showed either higher affinity with SZ and viability rate (0.90) throughout the process, and SZ removal rate was 3.39+/-0.06 mg/h. The mathematical model presented in this paper provides useful insights into the interpretation of experimental data as well as prediction for the implementation of biological reactors.     

Congratulations to Valerii Viktorovich Mikheev

Anniversaries and Memorable Dates

Congratulations to Valerii Viktorovich Mikheev Candidate of Technical Sciences, honorable builder of the Russian Federation, and recipient of the prize awarded by the Council of Ministers of the USSR     

Does oyster size matter for modelling trace metal bioaccumulation?

The aim of this study was assessing whether trace metal bioaccumulation models for oysters need to account for the effect of size-structured demography. To achieve this, we used a Bayesian generalised additive mixed modelling (BGAMM) approach. This nonparametric regression approach allowed us to estimate potentially nonlinear size effects of the oysters as well as random and structured spatial effects. Native oysters were collected from ten locations around the shoreline of Moreton Bay, a subtropical estuary in southeast Queensland, Australia. The soft-tissue of these sampled oysters were weighed (dry weight basis) and then analysed for Al, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn and Zn. Of the six trace metals analysed, only Mg was found to have a significant (negative) effect of soft-tissue mass. The correlated spatial effects for Cu, Mn and Zn indicated that the source of these trace metals in the oysters was from anthropogenic inputs while the correlated spatial effects for Al and Mg indicated natural inputs. The correlated spatial effect for Fe was characterised by 'hotspot' concentrations in regions of Moreton Bay where algal blooms have previously occurred and consequently oysters might be useful as an indicator of algal blooms in the Bay. Overall, the absence of an observed size effect for five of the six trace metals indicates that bioaccumulation models do not necessarily need to account for size-structured demography therefore enabling simpler models to be used.