0?1膨胀负二项回归模型在COVID?19疫情分析中的应用

在公共卫生等应用领域，经常会同时出现零观测值、一观测值较多的情况. 为更好地拟合这类数据，采用0?1膨胀负二项分布及其回归模型进行分析. 在数据扩充基础上，结合Pólya?Gamma潜变量对模型参数进行贝叶斯推断. 最后，对我国湖北省2019冠状病毒病(COVID?19)死亡数据集进行分析. 研究表明，0?1膨胀负二项回归模型能够达到更好的拟合效果.     

紫色马铃薯酒发酵工艺优化及主发酵期花青素与色泽的动态变化

以紫色马铃薯为原料，在单因素的基础上，通过响应面法对紫色马铃薯酒的发酵工艺参数进行优化。最佳发酵工艺参数为:马铃薯与面粉比1:0.6、料水比1:1 (g/mL)、α-淀粉酶添加量8.5 U/g、酒曲添加量0.45%。此工艺在28 ℃下发酵14 d，得到的紫色马铃薯酒酒精度13.5%vol，花青素含量166.34 mg/mL，酒体澄清透明呈紫红色，酸甜适中，有独特酒香，综合感官评定得分90分。测定主发酵期花青素和色泽的动态变化，分析表明，紫色马铃薯酒在发酵过程中花青素呈现先上升后下降的趋势，色度呈现先下降后趋于平缓的趋势，色调则与之相反。聚合色度和褐变指数总体均呈现逐渐上升的趋势。试验结果为工业化生产紫色马铃薯酒提供理论依据。     

Mixture ratio modeling of dynamic systems

Any knowledge extraction relies (possibly implicitly) on a hypothesis about the modelled-data dependence. The extracted knowledge ultimately serves to a decision-making (DM). DM always faces uncertainty and this makes probabilistic modelling adequate. The inspected black-box modeling deals with “universal” approximators of the relevant probabilistic model. Finite mixtures with components in the exponential family are often exploited. Their attractiveness stems from their flexibility, the cluster interpretability of components and the existence of algorithms for processing high-dimensional data streams. They are even used in dynamic cases with mutually dependent data records while regression and auto-regression mixture components serve to the dependence modeling. These dynamic models, however, mostly assume data-independent component weights, that is, memoryless transitions between dynamic mixture components. Such mixtures are not universal approximators of dynamic probabilistic models. Formally, this follows from the fact that the set of finite probabilistic mixtures is not closed with respect to the conditioning, which is the key estimation and predictive operation. The paper overcomes this drawback by using ratios of finite mixtures as universally approximating dynamic parametric models. The paper motivates them, elaborates their approximate Bayesian recursive estimation and reveals their application potential.     

基于Freescale的水质氨氮检测系统的设计

针对水质污染情况的严重性和水质主要污染源之一的氨氮缺乏实时检测的情况，设计了一套基于Freescale单片机芯片的水质氨氮检测系统，可以实时和快速地计算出水质中氨氮的含量。检测系统的硬件部分设计主要包括微处理器模块、温度控制模块、存储模块、信号采集模块以及通信模块的电路设计，软件部分对不同的模块进行程序设计以及上位机软件平台的开发。最后对整个系统进行实验测试，实验结果表明检测系统可以满足氨氮检测的精度要求。     

Biodegradability Study of the Biosurfactant Contained in a Crude Extract from Corn Steep Water

Over the last few years, the global biosurfactant market has raised due to the increasing awareness among consumers, for the use of biological or bio-based products. Because of their composition, it can be speculated that these are more biocompatible and more biodegradable than their chemical homologous. However, at the moment, no studies exist in the literature about the biodegradability of biosurfactants. In this work, a biosurfactant contained in a crude extract, obtained from a corn wet-milling industry stream that ferments spontaneously in the presence of lactic acid bacteria, was subjected to a biodegradation study, without addition of external microbial biomass, under different conditions of temperature (5–45 °C), biodegradation time (15–55 days), and pH (5–7). For that, a Box–Behnken factorial design was applied, which allowed to predict the percentage of biodegradation for the biosurfactant contained in the crude extract, between the range of the independent variables selected in the study, obtaining biodegradation values between 3 and 80%. The percentage of biodegradation for the biosurfactant was calculated based on the increase in the surface tension of samples of the crude extract. Furthermore, it was also possible to predict the variation in t_1/2 for the biosurfactant (time to achieve the 50% of biodegradation) under different conditions.     

Strength of pure alumina ceramics above 1 GPa

Up to now, commercially available alumina ceramics were claimed to have strength between 400 and 550 MPa. However, our study shows strength ~ 2 times higher for commercially available alumina than commonly believed. The average and characteristic strength, measured on 31 pure alumina ceramic discs by ball on three balls (B3B) test, were 1205 ± 93 MPa and 1257 MPa, respectively, with a Weibull modulus of m = 11.8. Tested specimens were in form of discs with a diameter of 5 mm and thickness 0.5 mm. The grain size distribution of the alumina is bimodal with an average grain size of ~ 850 nm measured at the surface. The fracture reveals a mixed transgranular / intergranular failure mode. To avoid incorporation of additional flaws, the discs were tested as sintered. The characteristic flexural strength measured in B3B was recalculated according to Weibull theory for standard 4-point bending bars of size 3 × 4 × 45 mm as bend 856 MPa. The measured strength of nearly 900 MPa shows the potential of strength for high purity alumina ceramics.     

Towards Diastereomeric Pure Salts with Antisolvent Methods

Chiral molecules, especially enantiomers and diastereomers of purity > 99 %, present a significant market share within the chemical, pharmaceutical, and flavor industries. Antisolvent precipitations, both batch and semicontinuous operations to serve the current trends in flow chemistry were demonstrated to be environmentally benign and efficient tools in achieving high optical purities. Although salts are known to be insoluble in supercritical CO₂, instabilities of the nascent salts were detected and applied for increasing efficiency. Diastereomeric excess values of the crystalline products exceeded 99 % in maximum of three consecutive steps both by repeated resolution with half molar equivalent of the amine to the acid and by direct recrystallization of the salts.     

A simple model for the semicontinuous heterophase polymerization: Ethyl methacrylate as a case example

A simple but comprehensive model considering homogeneous and micellar nucleation, coagulation, entry of radicals to particles and to micelles and radicals' exit from particles, is presented. The model is validated, in a starved semicontinuous heterophase polymerization of ethyl methacrylate, at three monomer addition rates. The model accurately describes the overall and instantaneous conversion, the average particle density and diameter, and the number and weight average molar masses evolutions over time. It is found that even though the average number of radicals is much smaller than 0.5, the system is not 0-1. An empirical function was used to describe the gel effect. The homogeneous nucleation was the prevailing mechanism for particle formation and large exit rates of radicals were observed. POLYM. ENG. SCI., 60: 223–232, 2019. © 2019 Society of Plastics Engineers