Stochastic epidemics: the probability of extinction of an infectious disease at the end of a major outbreak

The aim of this study is to derive an asymptotic expression for the probability that an infectious disease will disappear from a population at the end of a major outbreak ('fade-out'). The study deals with a stochastic SIR-model. Local asymptotic expansions are constructed for the deterministic trajectories of the corresponding deterministic system, in particular for the deterministic trajectory starting in the saddle point. The analytical expression for the probability of extinction is derived by asymptotically solving a boundary value problem based on the Fokker-Planck equation for the stochastic system. The asymptotic results are compared with results obtained by random walk simulations.     

Selective perturbation of apical membrane traffic by expression of influenza M2, an acid-activated ion channel, in polarized madin-darby canine kidney cells

The function of acidification along the endocytic pathway is not well understood, in part because the perturbants used to modify compartmental pH have global effects and in some cases alter cytoplasmic pH. We have used a new approach to study the effect of pH perturbation on postendocytic traffic in polarized Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells. Influenza M2 is a small membrane protein that functions as an acid-activated ion channel and can elevate the pH of the trans-Golgi network and endosomes. We used recombinant adenoviruses to express the M2 protein of influenza virus in polarized MDCK cells stably transfected with the polymeric immunoglobulin (Ig) receptor. Using indirect immunofluorescence and immunoelectron microscopy, M2 was found to be concentrated at the apical plasma membrane and in subapical vesicles; intracellular M2 colocalized partly with internalized IgA in apical recycling endosomes as well as with the trans-Golgi network marker TGN-38. Expression of M2 slowed the rate of IgA transcytosis across polarized MDCK monolayers. The delay in transport occurred after IgA reached the apical recycling endosome, consistent with the localization of intracellular M2. Apical recycling of IgA was also slowed in the presence of M2, whereas basolateral recycling of transferrin and degradation of IgA were unaffected. By contrast, ammonium chloride affected both apical IgA and basolateral transferrin release. Together, our data suggest that M2 expression selectively perturbs acidification in compartments involved in apical delivery without disrupting other postendocytic transport steps.     

Prevalence and risk factors for diabetic retinopathy among Omani diabetics

To determine the minimal contrast dosage required for diagnostic contrast-enhanced three-dimensional (3D) magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) image quality of the pulmonary (PAs) or renal arteries (RAs). In 12 volunteers (10 females, 2 males; mean age 24 years) imaging was performed with 4 different dosages: 0.05, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3 mmol/kg of body weight (BW) 0.5 M gadolinium (Gd) contrast agent. The PAs and RAs were evaluated separately each in groups of six volunteers. Qualitative and quantitative signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) image analysis was performed. For the PAs, the increases in signal-to-noise ratio were paralleled by increases in image quality ratings. For the PAs, with the use of 0.05 mmol/kg, only 50.3% of all segments were rated diagnostic, whereas with higher dosages the percentage rose to 89.2% for 0.1 mmol/kg, 98.2% for 0.2 mmol/kg. and 99.1% for 0.3 mmol/kg. For the RAs, 0.3 mmol/kg provided no significant increase in singal-to-noise ratio compared to 0.2 mmol/kg (p = 0.4). Only by a dosage of 0.2 and 0.3 mmol/kg, all evaluated segments were diagnostic evaluable. A dose of 0.2 mmol/kg is required for proper assessment of the RAs or PAs.     

Iatrogenic posterior tibial nerve division during ankle arthroscopy

AIM: To evaluate the validity of cumulative rim/disc area (RA/DA) curve analysis as a clinical tool for the identification of glaucoma induced optic disc pathology. METHODS: 71 normal and 83 glaucomatous eyes were evaluated from a series of 154 subjects recruited for this study. For each eye, the cumulative distribution of RA/DA was calculated from 36 equally spaced rim sectors of each optic disc obtained by the automatic evaluation of simultaneous videographics (Image-net X Rev.3/51b). To increase the sensitivity of this analysis in early glaucoma and in normal eyes, these cumulative curves were subsequently divided into two equal segments and the slopes of their respective regression lines compared. RESULTS: The median RA/DA value obtained from the 36 sectors was significantly different in glaucomatous eyes compared with normals (p < 0.001). Nevertheless, the curves (5th-95th percentile of the cumulative curves distribution) of early glaucomatous eyes fell within the normal range. When the cumulative curve of these marginal cases was then divided into two equal segments, the comparison of the slopes of the regression lines showed a significant difference (p < 0.05) in 100% of early glaucomatous eyes. Furthermore, normal eyes were shown to be true negatives in 93% of the cases in which no significant difference between the two slopes was observed. CONCLUSION: Analysis of the RA/DA cumulative curve from 36 sectors of the optic disc was a valid method for the identification of glaucomatous disc pathology; however, a further calculation of the slopes of the two RA/DA regression lines was needed to identify early glaucomatous damage.     

Correlation of the risk factors and stomach cancer morbidity in men and women

A comparative analysis is given of the gastric cancer incidence in the Tjumen Province for a period of 1959--1973. There was noted a direct dependence between the rate and number of risk factors (the complexes of unfavourable factors) in males and females. A conclusion is made that a higher incidence rate (1.7 times more) of gastric cancer among males may be attributed to the complexes of infavourable factors to which they are subject to a greater extent, 1.7 times as often as females, (mainly to bad habits) but not to biological features of the organism. Elimination of these harmful effects on the body would lessen the risk of this affection.     

Serious infections due to Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Infections due to Ps. aeruginosa are a problem in the tropics as in other parts of the world. Over a four year period, 15 patients attending University College Hospital, Ibadan, were proved to have septicaemia due to this organism and 13 patients died rapidly as a direct result of the infection. The two patients who survived the acute episode had received immediate treatment with at least one antibiotic active against Ps. aeruginosa: a third patient, who received immediate appropriate antibiotic therapy, was already suffering from aplastic anaemia and died rapidly despite treatment. The remaining patients received inappropriate antibiotic therapy because pseudomonas infection was not suspected at the time the diagnosis of septicaemia was made. Patients most at risk appear to be the very young and those with pre-existing malignant or other conditions affecting the defence mechanisms of the body: it is suggested that routine initial management of such patients should include a blood culture, followed by immediate treatment with an antibiotic combination that includes at least one agent likely to be active against Ps. aeruginosa. The development of medical services can lead to the introduction of ophthalmic or other operations on tissues that are highly susceptible to infection before facilities are provided for the maintenance of a pathogen-free environment. Following an outbreak of eye infection after cataract extractions, carried out in an old and unsatisfactory theatre, wide-spread room contamination was demonstrated with the same strains of Ps. aeruginosa that had been responsible for the clinical infections. Chemical disinfection of the theatre floor failed to eliminate the organisms, although other experiments suggested that the drying effect of air-conditioning would be successful in this respect. The wisdom of introducing such operations before the provision of adequate facilities is seriously questioned.     

Structure and function of hepatocyte lysosomes and peroxisomes of rachitic rats

The submicroscopic organization and activity of acid phosphatase and catalase in lysosomes and peroxisomes of the rat hepatocytes were studied with experimental rachitis. It is determined that total and free activity of acid phosphatase in the liver tissue and certain lysosomes with rachitis increases whereas the catalase activity in the tissue and certain peroxisomes decreases. Permeability of the lysosome and peroxisome membranes rises for enzymes and cations. The process of peroxisome differentiation with rachitis is disturbed: there appear peroxisomes containing the marginal plates, that is not peculiar to the redont peroxisomes.