Gaming Prediction Markets: Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker

We study the equilibrium behavior of informed traders interacting with market scoring rule (MSR) market makers. One attractive feature of MSR is that it is myopically incentive compatible: it is optimal for traders to report their true beliefs about the likelihood of an event outcome provided that they ignore the impact of their reports on the profit they might garner from future trades. In this paper, we analyze non-myopic strategies and examine what information structures lead to truthful betting by traders. Specifically, we analyze the behavior of risk-neutral traders with incomplete information playing in a dynamic game. We consider finite-stage and infinite-stage game models. For each model, we study the logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR) with two different information structures: conditionally independent signals and (unconditionally) independent signals. In the finite-stage model, when signals of traders are independent conditional on the state of the world, truthful betting is a Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium (PBE). Moreover, it is the unique Weak Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium (WPBE) of the game. In contrast, when signals of traders are unconditionally independent, truthful betting is not a WPBE. In the infinite-stage model with unconditionally independent signals, there does not exist an equilibrium in which all information is revealed in a finite amount of time. We propose a simple discounted market scoring rule that reduces the opportunity for bluffing strategies. We show that in any WPBE for the infinite-stage market with discounting, the market price converges to the fully-revealing price, and the rate of convergence can be bounded in terms of the discounting parameter. When signals are conditionally independent, truthful betting is the unique WPBE for the infinite-stage market with and without discounting.     

Effects of soil composition and mineralogy on remote sensing of crop residue cover

The management of crop residues (non-photosynthetic vegetation) in agricultural fields influences soil erosion and soil carbon sequestration. Remote sensing methods can efficiently assess crop residue cover and related tillage intensity over many fields in a region. Although the reflectance spectra of soils and crop residues are often similar in the visible, near infrared, and the lower part of the shortwave infrared (400-1900 nm) wavelength region, specific diagnostic chemical absorption features are evident in the upper shortwave infrared (1900-2500 nm) region. Two reflectance band height indices used for estimating residue cover are the Cellulose Absorption Index (CAI) and the Lignin-Cellulose Absorption (LCA) index, both of which use reflectances in the upper shortwave infrared (SWIR). Soil mineralogy and composition will affect soil spectral properties and may limit the usefulness of these spectral indices in certain areas. Our objectives were to (1) identify minerals and soil components with absorption features in the 2000 nm to 2400 nm wavelength region that would affect CAI and LCA and (2) assess their potential impact on remote sensing estimates of crop residue cover. Most common soil minerals had CAI values ≤ 0.5, whereas crop residues were always > 0.5, allowing for good contrast between soils and residues. However, a number of common soil minerals had LCA values > 0.5, and, in some cases, the mineral LCA values were greater than those of the crop residues, which could limit the effectiveness of LCA for residue cover estimation. The LCA of some dry residues and live corn canopies were similar in value, unlike CAI. Thus, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or similar method should be used to separate out green vegetation pixels. Mineral groups, such as garnets and chlorites, often have wide ranges of CAI and LCA values, and thus, mineralogical analyses often do not identify individual mineral species required for precise CAI estimation. However, these methods are still useful for identifying mineral soils requiring additional scrutiny. Future advanced multi- and hyperspectral remote sensing platforms should include CAI bands to allow for crop residue cover estimation.     

Ontogeny of Ia messenger RNA in the mouse small intestinal epithelium is modulated by age of weaning and diet

BACKGROUND: Exogenous antigenic peptides are presented to T cells by class II major histocompatibility complex (Ia) molecules on the surface of antigen-presenting cells. Class II-associated invariant chain (Ii) is also required for effective antigen presentation. Because messenger RNAs (mRNAs) for Ii chain and for class II I-A beta chain appear in the mouse intestinal epithelium after weaning, experiments were conducted to test the effect of age of weaning and diet on the appearance of Ia and Ii mRNA. METHODS: Four litters were split at day 17; one half was weaned and the other remained with the mother until day 24. On day 23, 25, 27, and 29, enterocytes were isolated from full-length small intestine by vascular perfusion with 30 mmol/L ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid, and the RNA was extracted. RESULTS: Appearance of Ii and I-A beta was significantly delayed by late weaning, as judged by RNA hybridization blots (Ii chain) and complementary DNA amplification (I-A beta chain). In mice on elemental diets, the appearance of Ii and I-A beta chain was delayed compared with littermates reared on standard chow. Ii mRNA failed to appear in mice maintained on the elemental diet by day 40, despite normal growth. CONCLUSIONS: Appearance of mRNA for both Ia and Ii depends on the introduction of a complex diet and not the "stress" of weaning or elimination of breast milk. Introduction of foreign dietary antigens or development of an altered intestinal flora may contribute to this process.     

The use of angiostatic steroids to inhibit cartilage destruction in an in vivo model of granuloma-mediated cartilage degradation

Angiogenesis is an important component of the development of chronic inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis. It is known that clinically used anti-rheumatic drugs exert, in part, effects on the angiogenic response. Little work, however, has investigated the potential of experimental angiostatic therapies in chronic inflammatory disease models. The effect of one such angiostatic treatment, cortisone combined with heparin, was tested in an in vivo model of granuloma-mediated cartilage degradation. Angiostatic treatment significantly retarded the growth of granulomatous tissue, mononuclear cell influx into the granuloma, and the degradation of juxtaposed cartilage. This correlated with a decrease in the vascularity of the granulomatous tissue. Modulation of this component of pathogenesis of "angiogenesis-dependent disease" may be useful as a new therapeutic approach.     

Hypoxic ventilatory responsiveness in Tibetan compared with Han residents of 3,658 m

Lifelong high-altitude residents of North and South America acquire blunted hypoxic ventilatory responses and exhibit decreased ventilation compared with acclimatized newcomers. The ventilatory characteristics of Himalayan high-altitude residents are of interest in the light of their reportedly lower hemoglobin levels and legendary exercise performance. Until recently, Sherpas have been the only Himalayan population available for study. To determine whether Tibetans exhibited levels of ventilation and hypoxic ventilatory drives that were as great as acclimatized newcomers, we compared 27 lifelong Tibetan residents of Lhasa, Tibet, China (3,658 m) with 30 acclimatized Han ("Chinese") newcomers matched for age, body size, and extent of exercise training. During room air breathing, minute ventilation was greater in the Tibetan than in the Han young men because of an increased respiratory frequency, but arterial O2 saturation and end-tidal PCO2 did not differ, indicating similar levels of effective alveolar ventilation. The Tibetan subjects had higher hypoxic ventilatory response shape parameter A values and hypercapnic ventilatory responsiveness than the Han subjects. Among the Han subjects, duration of high-altitude residence correlated with the degree of blunting of the hypoxic ventilatory drive. Paradoxically, hyperoxia (inspired O2 fraction 0.70) increased minute ventilation and decreased end-tidal PCO2 in the Tibetan but not in the Han men. We concluded that lifelong Tibetan residents of high altitude neither hypoventilated nor exhibited blunted hypoxic ventilatory responses compared with acclimatized Han newcomers, suggesting that the effects of lifelong high-altitude residence on ventilation and ventilatory response to hypoxia differ in Tibetan compared with other high-altitude populations.     

Proteinase activity in the isolates of Trichomonas vaginalis according to their pathogenicity

Ten axenic isolates of Trichomonas vaginalis were subcutaneously injected to the BALB/c mice in order to assess their pathogenicity by means of so-called "mouse assay" method. All the isolates revealed neutral and acid proteinase activities both in their lysates and in culture media, but the specific activities of both proteinases in the severely pathogenic group were significantly higher than the mildly pathogenic group (p < 0.05). In the SDS-PAGE system in which the electrophoretic gels contained 0.4% gelatin as the substrate, five different banding patterns of trichomonal proteinases were detected, and the patterns were closely related with the pathogenicity of the isolates of T. vaginalis. All five bands might be regarded as cysteine proteinases group in the inhibitor assays. The cytotoxicity of the lysates of T. vaginalis to the target Chinese hamster ovarian (CHO) cell line was also significantly different according to the pathogenicity of the isolates, and generally lower in the lysates treated with cysteine proteinase inhibitors than in the control lysates. In summarizing the results, it might be considered that the proteinases of T. vaginalis showing five electrophoretic banding patterns are closely related with the pathogenicity and cytotoxicity of the isolates of T. vaginalis.     

Grafting of enzymes on collagen films using Woodward''s reagent "K" and a water-soluble carbodiimide derivative

Two new methods of activation were developed to graft enzymes on collegen films. They involved chemical modifications of surface groups of collagen either by Woodward's reagent "K" or by EDC, a water-soluble derivative of carbodiimide. EDC was a better coupling agent and a detailed study was conducted with this agent. It could be used either in a global method of activation and coupling, or in a two-step procedure of activation of collagen, followed by spontaneous coupling of enzyme. All enzymes tested were successfully bound: malate dehydrogenase, lactate dehydrogenase, aspartate aminotransferase, urease, creatine kinase, hexokinase. The influence on the yield of grafted enzyme, of pretreatment of films, time and temperature of EDC activation, concentration of EDC and enzyme, protecting agents was studied. Stability of enzyme activity on storage was greatly increased after grafting. A co-grafted dual system creatine kinase/heoxkinase, was achieved which exhibited a good efficiency. A striking renaturing process at 0-4degreesC after thermal denaturation, was observed with hexokinase.     

31P NMR studies of unsonicated aqueous dispersions of neutral and acidic phospholipids. Effects of phase transitions, p2H and divalent cations on the motion in the phosphate region of the polar headgroup

1. The 129 MHz (non-proton decoupled) and 36.4 MHz (proton decoupled) 31P NMR spectra arising from unsonicated aqueous dispersions of well defined species of phospholipid have been investigated. The phospholipids employed (and the parameters varied) include phosphatidylcholine (temperature), phosphatidylethanolamine (temperature), phosphatidic acid (temperature and p2H) and phosphatidylglycerol (temperature, p2H and Ca2+ (or Mg2+)) concentration. 2. At p2H = 7 the 31 P MNR spectra arising from saturated species of phosphatidylcholine, phosphatidylethanolamine and phosphatidylglycerol become progressively broader as the temperature is reduced below the phase transition, demonstrating reduced motion in the phosphate region of the polar headgroup. 3. In the liquid crystalline state at p2H = 7 the molecular dipolar order parameters obtained for saturated species of phosphatidylcholine, phosphatidylethanolamine and phosphatidylglycerol and very similar, and are independent of the acyl chain length for species derived from lauric and myristic acid. Thus the motion in the methylene-phosphate-methylene region is similar for these different liquid crystaline phospholipid species. 4. The 31 P NMR spectra of aqueous dispersions of 14:0/14:0 phosphatidic acid display anomalous temperature and p2H dependences. The effective chemical shift anistropy (delta v CSA EFF) at 5 degrees C varies from 71 ppm at p2H = 8.5 to 38 ppm at p2H = 2.5. Further, the motion in the phosphate region is relatively insensitive to the gel or liquid crystalline nature of the hydrocarbon chains. 5. The addition of 40 mol% Ca2+ (or Mg2+) to saturated species of phosphatidylglycerol causes an increase of approx. 20 degrees C in the hydrocarbon phase transition temperature as indicated by 31 P NMR. Equimolar concentrations of Ca2+ increase the transition temperature by approx. 70 degrees C, and no 31P NMR signal could be observed for the very condensed precipitate formed below this temperature. In the liquid crystalline state the motion in the phosphate region of the polar headgroup is not significantly affected by the presence of Ca+ or Mg2+. 6. The 31P NMR spectra obtained from 18 : 1c/18 : 1c phosphatidylethanolamine are consistent with a phase transition from a lamellar to an hexagonal (HII) phase in the region 10-15 degrees C. 7. The observed narrowing of the 31 P NMR spectra of aqueous dispersions of phospholipids as the temperature is raised toward the hydrocarbon transition temperature is discussed in terms of the "pretransition" observed in calorimetric studies.     

Trading agents competing: performance, progress, and market effectiveness

The annual trading agent competition offers agent designers a forum for evaluating programmed trading techniques in a challenging market scenario. TAC aims to spur research by enabling researchers to compare techniques on a common problem and build on each other's ideas. A fixed set of assumptions and environment settings facilitates communication of methods and results. As a multiyear event, TAC lets researchers observe trading agents' progress over time, in effect accelerating the evolution of an adapted population of traders. Given all the participant effort invested, it is incumbent on us to learn as much from the experience as possible. After three years of TAC, we're ready to examine there we stand. To do this, we used data from actual TAC tournaments and some post-competition experimentation. We based our analysis almost entirely on outcomes (profits and allocations), with very little direct accounting for specific agent techniques.