On the effectiveness of early life cycle defect prediction with Bayesian Nets

Standard practice in building models in software engineering normally involves three steps: collecting domain knowledge (previous results, expert knowledge); building a skeleton of the model based on step 1 including as yet unknown parameters; estimating the model parameters using historical data. Our experience shows that it is extremely difficult to obtain reliable data of the required granularity, or of the required volume with which we could later generalize our conclusions. Therefore, in searching for a method for building a model we cannot consider methods requiring large volumes of data. This paper discusses an experiment to develop a causal model (Bayesian net) for predicting the number of residual defects that are likely to be found during independent testing or operational usage. The approach supports (1) and (2), does not require (3), yet still makes accurate defect predictions (an R ² of 0.93 between predicted and actual defects). Since our method does not require detailed domain knowledge it can be applied very early in the process life cycle. The model incorporates a set of quantitative and qualitative factors describing a project and its development process, which are inputs to the model. The model variables, as well as the relationships between them, were identified as part of a major collaborative project. A dataset, elicited from 31 completed software projects in the consumer electronics industry, was gathered using a questionnaire distributed to managers of recent projects. We used this dataset to validate the model by analyzing several popular evaluation measures (R ², measures based on the relative error and Pred). The validation results also confirm the need for using the qualitative factors in the model. The dataset may be of interest to other researchers evaluating models with similar aims. Based on some typical scenarios we demonstrate how the model can be used for better decision support in operational environments. We also performed sensitivity analysis in which we identified the most influential variables on the number of residual defects. This showed that the project size, scale of distributed communication and the project complexity cause the most of variation in number of defects in our model. We make both the dataset and causal model available for research use.     

Overview of randomized trials of intravenous heparin in patients with acute myocardial infarction treated with thrombolytic therapy

Intravenous heparin is routinely given after thrombolytic therapy for patients with acute myocardial infarction in the United States and in some, but by no means all, other countries. Several trials have documented improved infarct-artery patency in patients treated with heparin; however, none was large enough individually to assess the effect of heparin on clinical outcomes. We performed a systematic overview of the 6 randomized controlled trials (1,735 patients) to summarize the available data concerning the risks and benefits of intravenous heparin versus no heparin after thrombolytic therapy. Mortality before hospital discharge was 5.1% for patients allocated to intravenous heparin compared with 5.6% for controls (relative risk reduction of 9%, odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.59 to 1.39). Similar rates of recurrent ischemia and reinfarction were observed among those allocated to heparin therapy or control. The rates of total stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, and severe bleeding were similar in patients allocated to heparin; however, the risk of any severity of bleeding was significantly higher (22.7% vs 16.2%; odds ratio 1.55, 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 1.98). There was no significant difference in the observed effects of heparin between patients receiving tissue-type plasminogen activator and those receiving streptokinase or anisoylated plasminogen streptokinase activator complex, or between patients who did and did not receive aspirin. The findings of this overview demonstrate that insufficient clinical outcome data are available to support or to refute the routine use of intravenous heparin therapy after thrombolysis. It is not known if these findings are due to lack of statistical power, inappropriate levels of anticoagulation, or lack of benefit of intravenous heparin. Large randomized studies of heparin (and of new antithrombotic regimens) are needed to establish the role of such therapy.     

Metrics and mappings: A framework for understanding real-world quantitative estimation.

Estimation is influenced by a variety of processes: application of heuristics, domain-specific reasoning, and intuitive statistical induction among them. In this article, the authors propose the metrics and mapping framework to account for how these processes are integrated to generate estimates. This framework identifies 2 types of information as critical: knowledge of distributional properties (metric knowledge) and knowledge of relative status of individual entities within the distribution (mapping knowledge). Heuristics and domain-specific knowledge are both viewed as cues that contribute to mapping knowledge; intuitive statistical induction is viewed as providing cues to metric properties. Results of 4 experiments illustrate the framework's usefulness for integrating these types of information and for predicting when people emphasize heuristics and when they emphasize domain-specific knowledge. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Benefits of collecting local data on breast cancer and mammography practices in northwestern Pennsylvania

OBJECTIVES: A randomized trial was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a work-site health promotion program in reducing obesity and the prevalence of cigarette smoking. METHODS: Thirty-two work sites were randomized to treatment or no treatment for 2 years. Treatment consisted of health education classes combined with a payroll-based incentive system. Evaluation was based on cohort and cross-sectional surveys. RESULTS: Of 10,000 total employees in treatment work sites, 2041 and 270 participated in weight control and smoking cessation programs, respectively. Weight losses averaged 4.8 lbs, and 43% of smoking participants quit. Net 2-year reductions in smoking prevalence in treatment vs control work sites were 4.0% and 2.1% in cross-sectional and cohort surveys, respectively. No treatment effect was found for weight. Treatment effects for smoking prevalence and weight were both positively correlated with participation rates in the intervention programs (r = .45 for smoking and r = .55 for weight). CONCLUSIONS: This work-site health promotion program was effective in reducing smoking prevalence at a cost that is believed to make the investment worthwhile.     

Sequence diversity in the NIb coding region of eight sugarcane mosaic potyvirus isolates infecting sugarcane in Australia

We have sequenced the NIb coding region of sugarcane mosaic potyvirus strain SC (SCMV-SC) and eight field isolates of SCMV from Australia. This region comprised 1563 nucleotides and encoded a putative protein of 521 amino acids containing the consensus motif GDD. The protease cleavage sites between the NIa/NIb and the NIb/coat protein were found to be Q/C and Q/A, respectively. The SCMV sequences were most similar to sorghum mosaic potyvirus with identities of 70% and 78% at the nucleotide and amino acid levels, respectively. When the sequences were compared to each other, there was a maximum of 3.3% variation between isolates at the nucleotide level and a maximum of 0.8% at the amino acid level. Phylogenetic analysis of the sequences indicated the field isolates were grouped according to their geographical location. The SCMV sequence with most homology to all other isolates has been selected to generate constructs for replicase-mediated resistance.     

Activated partial thromboplastin time and outcome after thrombolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction: results from the GUSTO-I trial

BACKGROUND: Although intravenous heparin is commonly used after thrombolytic therapy, few reports have addressed the relationship between the degree of anticoagulation and clinical outcomes. We examined the activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) in 29,656 patients in the Global Utilization of Streptokinase and t-PA for Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO-I) trial and analyzed the relationship between the aPTT and both baseline patient characteristics and clinical outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: Intravenous heparin was administered as a 5000-U bolus followed by an initial infusion of 1000 U/h, with dose adjustment to achieve a target aPTT of 60 to 85 seconds. aPTTs were collected 6, 12, and 24 hours after thrombolytic administration. Higher aPTT at 24 hours was strongly related to lower patient weight (P < .00001) as well as older age, female sex, and lack of cigarette smoking (all PT< .0001). At 12 hours, the aPTT associated with the lowest 30-day mortality, stroke, and bleeding rates was 50 to 70 seconds. There was an unexpected direct relationship between the aPTT and the risk of subsequent reinfarction. There was a clustering of reinfarction in the first 10 hours after discontinuation of intravenous heparin. CONCLUSIONS: Although the relationship between aPTT and clinical outcome was confounded to some degree by the influence of baseline prognostic characteristics, aPTTs higher than 70 seconds were found to be associated with higher likelihood of mortality, stroke, bleeding, and reinfarction. These findings suggest that until proven otherwise, we should consider the aPTT range of 50 to 70 seconds as optimal with intravenous heparin after thrombolytic therapy.     

Noninvasive assessment of the direct action of oral nifedipine and nicardipine on left ventricular contractile state in patients with systemic hypertension: importance of reflex sympathetic responses

BACKGROUND: Alveolar macrophages from patients with sarcoidosis were analyzed for their ability to secrete tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), interleukin-1-beta (IL-1-beta), and interleukin-6 (IL-6). RESULTS: Constitutive release of all three monokines in these patients was concomitantly increased in the active state of disease in comparison with inactive sarcoidosis or healthy control subjects. Alveolar macrophages from patients with inactive sarcoidosis compared with cells from healthy subjects showed increased spontaneous secretion of TNF-alpha and IL-6 only, whereas the constitutive release of IL-1-beta was similar as in healthy volunteers. In vitro stimulation of alveolar macrophages from healthy control subjects with lipopolysaccharide or pokeweed mitogen led to a time- and dose-dependent enhanced secretion of TNF-alpha, IL-1-beta, and IL-6. In a similar manner, with corresponding cells from patients with sarcoidosis the secretion of all three cytokines could be further increased by stimulation with lipopolysaccharide or pokeweed mitogen. CONCLUSIONS: The data presented indicate that an increased release of TNF-alpha, IL-1-beta, and IL-6 correlates to disease activity and may play a critical part in the pathogenesis of sarcoidosis.     

Hand-assisted laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy

Selenium is essential for humans because it protects the heart against cardiomyopathy. It may also reduce ischaemic heart disease owing to its antioxidant activity. It is known that Indian migrants in a number of countries have high incidences of ischaemic heart disease. In this study, fasting plasma selenium concentrations of Sikh migrants in Sydney (Australia) were measured to investigate whether selenium concentration is reduced in this community. The mean concentration of selenium in plasma (91.8 +/- 15.0 ng ml-1, n = 196) was within the normal range. A significantly higher plasma selenium concentration was demonstrated in males than in females (p < 0.01). This was mainly due to the difference in mean selenium concentrations between genders in vegetarians because no significant difference was observed in non-vegetarian males versus females. The mean concentration of selenium in teetotal males was similar to those who consumed alcohol. Despite significant variations with gender and diet, the selenium concentrations were within the normal range. The results suggest that selenium status is adequate in the Sikh community even though vegetarian diet is common and alcohol use is condones in males.     

Acute arthritis of cats associated with feline calicivirus infection

Twelve specific pathogen-free cats were infected either by intra-articular inoculation or by contact exposure to one of two strains of feline calicivirus (FCV), either F65, a field strain originating from an outbreak of lameness in a group of cats, or a vaccine strain. Following either route of exposure, both strains induced signs typical of FCV infection including oral and nasal ulceration, conjunctivitis and ocular discharge. These signs were of equal severity for both virus strains, but overall, following either route of infection, F65 induced more severe disease than the vaccine strain, with marked pyrexia, lethargy and lameness. Vaccine virus only induced a relatively mild lameness following intra-articular inoculation. Gross pathological and histopathological lesions were seen in some of the joints, but again changes were more severe in the F65-exposed cats. Virus was isolated from both normal and affected joints from both groups of F65-exposed cats, and from a joint from each cat inoculated intra-articularly with vaccine virus. Mild transient lameness was also seen in one of two control cats inoculated intra-articularly, but no pathological changes were seen or virus isolated from joints. A cDNA probe used in RNA dot blot hybridisation experiments was found to be specific and more sensitive than virus isolation in detecting FCV in selected tissues. This may be useful in future studies on the pathogenesis of FCV disease and in studies on viral persistence in FCV carriers.