Finite sample properties of ARMA order selection

The cost of order selection is defined as the loss in model quality due to selection. It is the difference between the quality of the best of all available candidate models that have been estimated from a finite sample of N observations and the quality of the model that is actually selected. The order selection criterion itself has an influence on the cost because of the penalty factor for each additionally selected parameter. Also, the number of competitive candidate models for the selection is important. The number of candidates is, of itself, small for the nested and hierarchical autoregressive/moving average (ARMA) models. However, intentionally reducing the number of selection candidates can be beneficial in combined ARMA(p,q) models, where two separate model orders are involved: the AR order p and the MA order q. The selection cost can be diminished by creating a nested sequence of ARMA(r,r-1) models. Moreover, not evaluating every combination (p,q) of the orders considerably reduces the required computation time. The disadvantage may be that the true ARMA(p,q) model is no longer among the nested candidate models. However, in finite samples, this disadvantage is largely compensated for by the reduction in the cost of order selection by considering fewer candidates. Thus, the quality of the selected model remains acceptable with only hierarchically nested ARMA(r,r-1) models as candidates.     

Immunoelectron localization of mitochondrial F1 factor in cryosections of heart muscle cells

Immunocytochemistry was used to investigate the localization of F1 ATPase in mitochondria of cryosections of adult mouse heart muscle cells. The initial aldehyde fixation was the only denaturation step for antigens. The fine structure was preserved with contrast enhancement as the sections were maintained hydrated, with the advantage that the entire procedure is completed in one working day. The reaction was highly specific, and entire mitochondria were labeled with the Protein A-gold complex. A new analytical technique, electron spectroscopic imaging (ESI), contributed to a better visualization of the localization of the F1 factor.     

It takes two to mimic: Behavioral consequences of self-construals.

The present studies demonstrated the moderation of self-construal orientation on mimicry. Recent research has indicated that an interdependent self-construal is associated with assimilation of the other to the self whereas an independent self-construal is associated with minimizing the influence of others on the self (H. R. Markus & S. Kitayama, 1991; D. Stapel & W. Koomen, 2001). Therefore, the authors hypothesized that an interdependent self-construal would be associated with more mimicry than an independent self-construal. When self-construal orientations were experimentally primed. as in Studies 1 and 2, independent self-construals produced less nonconscious mimicry than interdependent self-construals. When self-construals were examined as cultural differences with either a chronically dominant independent (Americans) or interdependent (Japanese) construal of the self, these results were replicated. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Critical Shear Stress of Bimodal Sediment in Sand-Gravel Rivers

A new model for the critical shear stress and the transport of graded sediment is presented. The model is based on the size distribution of the bed surface and can be used to compute sediment transport rates in numerical simulations with an active layer model. This model makes a distinction between unimodal and bimodal sediments. It is assumed that all size fractions of unimodal sediments have the same critical shear stress while there is selective transport for the gravel fractions of bimodal sediments. A recently published laboratory transport data set is used to calibrate our model.     

W-35%Cu液相活化烧结工艺研究

本文从钨铜两相迁移机制和固溶扩散的角度 ,实验研究了钨铜复合粉的活化和常规烧结 ,分析了钨铜复合粉液相活化烧结过程中球磨时间、烧结温度、保温时间和升温速度对材料致密度的影响。结果表明 ,短时间球磨的钨铜复合粉具有良好的烧结性能 ,烧结温度和保温时间对材料致密度影响很大 ,活化烧结能有效降低烧结温度 ,提高烧结致密度     

Development of New Sulphonyl Resin from Modification of Commercial Resin

Summary This article deals with the handy synthesis of sulfonyl resins, which were produced by the treatment of a commercial sulfonic resin (Lewatit VPOC1812^® based at divinylbenzene (DVB) and styrene (STY). The preliminary chemical modification was based on the reaction of the Lewatit VPOC1812^® with thionyl chloride aiming to produce the sulfonyl chloride groups. The best conditions to obtain the sulfonyl chloride groups were: SOCl₂/SO₃H (molar ratio) =13 at 79 °C during 72 h. The resin chlorinated was afterward treated with urea, thiourea or guanidine. The functionalized resins with urea, thiourea or guanidine were produced with 56, 68 and 93% yield, respectively. The commercial and modified resins were characterized by apparent density, swelling degree, elemental analysis (CHNS), FTIR, optical microscopy (OM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM).     

Missed opportunities for immunisation at hospitals in the western Cape--a reappraisal

Immunisation practices were examined at 6 hospitals in the western Cape during the latter half of 1992 to determine whether these practices had improved subsequent to the February 1991 resolution of the Health Matters Committee (HMC) on immunisation in hospitals, and since a similar study was undertaken in 1990. Exit interviews were conducted with the escorts of all children aged 3-59 months who attended the study hospitals on the days designated for the study. In the second study, 88 of the 311 children studied (28.3%) were in need of immunisation on arrival, but only 12 of the 88 (13.6%) were immunised during the hospital visit. There was no evidence of an increase in requests to see children's Road-to-Health cards (37.1% compared with 35.2% previously). The incidence of missed opportunities for measles immunisation in children aged 6-59 months remained unacceptably high (51.4% compared with 63.7% previously, when a strict definition was used; and 15.7% compared with 18.1% previously, when a lenient definition was used). Health authorities at all levels need to take urgent action to address the problem of missed opportunities for immunisation at hospitals.     

Cost-effectiveness of preoperative localization studies in primary hyperparathyroid disease

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of preoperative localization studies on the surgical management of patients with primary hyperparathyroid disease (PHPT). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Reported cure rates of initial surgical exploration for PHPT are close to 95%. Preoperative localization studies are frequently obtained to improve surgical success and decrease operative time. METHODS: Initial cervical exploration was performed in 113 patients with PHPT from 1981 to 1993. Twenty-four patients (21%) had surgery without preoperative localization studies. The remaining 89 patients (79%) had 132 noninvasive preoperative localization studies. Success of the localization studies in tumor localization, pathologic findings, postoperative serum calcium levels, and operative times were compared. Patient costs of the studies were calculated. RESULTS: Disease was identified during operation in 23 of 24 patients (96%) having cervical exploration without preoperative localization studies, and they had normal calcium levels after surgery. Eighty-seven of 89 patients (98%) having preoperative localization studies were surgically cured. The highest sensitivity rate (60%) and highest positive predictive value (79%) of the localization studies were found with thallium-technetium scintiscanning. Average cost of the localization studies was $901 per patient. Combination studies were obtained in 32 patients at an average cost of $1,314 per patient without improving sensitivity. Mean operating time did not differ for localized and nonlocalized patients. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative localization studies did not improve parathyroid localization or cure rate and did not substantially shorten operating time in initial cervical exploration for PHPT. The economic burden of routine preoperative localization studies in these patients is not justified.