p values, hypothesis tests, and likelihood: implications for epidemiology of a neglected historical debate

It is not generally appreciated that the p value, as conceived by R. A. Fisher, is not compatible with the Neyman-Pearson hypothesis test in which it has become embedded. The p value was meant to be a flexible inferential measure, whereas the hypothesis test was a rule for behavior, not inference. The combination of the two methods has led to a reinterpretation of the p value simultaneously as an "observed error rate" and as a measure of evidence. Both of these interpretations are problematic, and their combination has obscured the important differences between Neyman and Fisher on the nature of the scientific method and inhibited our understanding of the philosophic implications of the basic methods in use today. An analysis using another method promoted by Fisher, mathematical likelihood, shows that the p value substantially overstates the evidence against the null hypothesis. Likelihood makes clearer the distinction between error rates and inferential evidence and is a quantitative tool for expressing evidential strength that is more appropriate for the purposes of epidemiology than the p value.     

An inertia-adaptive particle swarm system with particle mobility factor for improved global optimization

Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) has recently emerged as a nature-inspired algorithm for real parameter optimization. This article describes a method for improving the final accuracy and the convergence speed of PSO by firstly adding a new coefficient (called mobility factor) to the position updating equation and secondly modulating the inertia weight according to the distance between a particle and the globally best position found so far. The two-fold modification tries to balance between the explorative and exploitative tendencies of the swarm with an objective of achieving better search performance. We also mathematically analyze the effect of the modifications on the dynamics of the PSO algorithm. The new algorithm has been shown to be statistically significantly better than the basic PSO and four of its state-of-the-art variants on a twelve-function test-suite in terms of speed, accuracy, and robustness.     

The chemistry of dicalcium silicate mineral

Dicalcium silicate is of vital importance in several fields of silicate science. It exists in several polymorphic forms, of which one (the-form) is stable at room temperature without any stabilizer. The-form is commonly found in ordinary portland cement (OPC) in association with stabilizing ions. Stabilization of other forms,,_L,_H and_m for structural and other studies have been reported. Theoretical structural analysis using topology has been reported to be of value in understanding the stabilization process of the polymorphs. The conversion of form is at times a problem in the cement industry, in addition to the formation of unwanted compounds, such as spurrite. The-form is low in hydraulic properties but in the presence of impurities such as excess CaO over the stoichiometric ratio, shows fairly high hydraulic properties. Of the other phases, the hydraulic properties of the a forms are quite encouraging but the choice of stabilizers etc. plays a dominant role. Correlation of hydraulicity with structural properties such as crystal defects, etc., has been reported but satisfactory explanation is yet to come. The hydration products of-C₂S are quite similar to those of C₃S but the kinetics are fairly slow. In the presence of active silica, and at elevated temperatures, even the-form hydrates at a faster rate. The influence of chemical accelerators on the hydration of C₂S at room temperature is well studied and NaF is found to be one of the best accelerators. The formation of reactive-C₂S by different preparative methods shows a quite interesting trend for potential manufacture of low-temperature inorganic cement or OPC with low C₃S; even utilization of low-grade limestone could be possible. The role of C₂S in the hydration of aluminous cements is being increasingly recognized and, in fact, a newer class of cements called alumina-belite cement, etc., are being developed in which C₂S is purposely maintained as a major phase.     

Determination of fibrin and fibrinogen split products by their anticoagulant activity

A new diagnostic method to determine fibrinogen and fibrin splitting products is based on the fact that high-molecular fragments acting as specific inhibitors of fibrin self-assembly compose these products. Fibrinogen and fibrin splitting products are detected and determined quantitatively by prolongation of coagulation time in the test with the standard monomeric fibrin. The number of units of anticoagulating activity in the studied urine are the results of the determinations. Sensitivity of the method if necessary may be increased by adding of a certain amount of the fibrinogen and fibrin splitting products to the test that makes a favourable background for the action of the products. The method is rather sensitive, reliable and simple. It may be used in ordinary clinical laboratories. The method proved to be quite satisfactory when testing renal diseases at the clinic. It is of great significance for early detection of the transplanted kidney rejection. The new method is compared with the known immunological method which consist in determination of the inhibitory effect of the fibrinogen and fibrin splitting products on agglutination of erythrocytes of specific antibodies; the erythrocytes being subjected to "tanning" and "loading" with fibrinogen. A satisfactory correlation is found between the results of two methods.     

Polyaniline and polypyrrole modified conductive nanocomposites of polyfuran and polythiophene with montmorillonite clay

Nanocomposites of polyfuran (PF) and polythiophene (PTP) with montmorillonite clay (MMT) were prepared and modified by loading of polyaniline (PANI) and polypyrrole (PPY) moieties via polymerization of aniline (ANI) and pyrrole (PY) in aqueous dispersions of PF-MMT and PTP-MMT nanocomposites. Formation of PANI and PPY and their subsequent incorporation in the PF-MMT and PTP-MMT composites was confirmed by FTIR absorption studies. X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns of PANI and PPY modified PF-MMT and PTP-MMT composites showed that PF-MMT and PTP-MMT intercalates were still present in the modified composites. Scanning electron microscopic analysis revealed distinctive morphological patterns of the various composite particles. The dc conductivity values of PANI and PPY modified PF-MMT and PTP-MMT composites were in the order of 10⁻² S/cm in either system – a value much improved compared to the same for both of the unmodified PF-MMT (10⁻⁷ S/cm) and PTP-MMT (10⁻⁵ S/cm) nanocomposites respectively.     

Novel wet-chemical synthesis and characterization of nanocrystalline CeO2 and Ce0.8Gd0.2O1.9 as solid electrolyte for intermediate temperature solid oxide fuel cell (IT-SOFC) applications

Novel wet-chemical methods of synthesis have been adopted to synthesize nano-crystalline CeO₂ and Gd-substituted compositions aiming to explore an efficient oxide ion conducting solid electrolyte for intermediate temperature solid oxide fuel cell (IT-SOFC) applications. Nano-crystalline CeO₂ powders were synthesized by combustion method using redox mixture of cerric ammonium nitrate or cerium nitrate and maleic acid or 1,3-dimethylurea and compared with high surface area CeO₂ powders prepared by hydrothermal technique with microwave precipitated precursor from aqueous solutions of (NH₄)₂Ce(NO₃)₆ and urea. The grain size achieved by the hydrothermal technique is ∼7 nm which is smaller than that of commercial nano CeO₂ powders. Conventional or microwave sintering was used to prepare dense Ce_0.8Gd_0.2O_1.9 pellets from the ceria powders made of redox mixture of cerium nitrate, 1,3-dimethylurea (DMU) and Gd₂O₃ as the starting ingredients. The samples were characterized by X-ray diffractometry (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and ac impedance spectroscopy. The ionic conductivity measured for the pellet sintered at 1400 °C is 1 × 10⁻² and 2.4 × 10⁻² S/cm at 700 °C and 800 °C respectively.     

Incorporating Ancestors' Influence in Genetic Algorithms

A new criterion of fitness evaluation for Genetic Algorithms is introduced where the fitness value of an individual is determined by considering its own fitness as well as those of its ancestors. Some guidelines for selecting the weighting coefficients for quantifying the importance to be given to the fitness of the individual and its ancestors are provided. This is done both heuristically and automatically under fixed and adaptive frameworks. The Schema Theorem corresponding to the proposed concept is derived. The effectiveness of this new methodology is demonstrated extensively on the problems of optimizing complex functions including a noisy one and selecting optimal neural network parameters.     

A mixture-of-experts framework for adaptive Kalman filtering

This paper proposes a modular and flexible approach to adaptive Kalman filtering using the framework of a mixture-of-experts regulated by a gating network. Each expert is a Kalman filter modeled with a different realization of the unknown system parameters such as process and measurement noise. The gating network performs on-line adaptation of the weights given to individual filter estimates based on performance. This scheme compares very favorably with the classical Magill filter bank, which is based on a Bayesian technique, in terms of: estimation accuracy; quicker response to changing environments; and numerical stability and computational demands. The proposed filter bank is further enhanced by periodically using a search algorithm in a feedback loop. Two search algorithms are considered. The first algorithm uses a recursive quadratic programming approach which extremizes a modified maximum likelihood function to update the parameters of the best performing filter in the bank. This particular approach to parameter adaptation allows a real-time implementation. The second algorithm uses a genetic algorithm to search for the parameter vector and is suited for post-processed data type applications. The workings and power of the overall filter bank and the suggested adaptation schemes are illustrated by a number of examples.