Application of finite mixture models for vehicle crash data analysis

Developing sound or reliable statistical models for analyzing motor vehicle crashes is very important in highway safety studies. However, a significant difficulty associated with the model development is related to the fact that crash data often exhibit over-dispersion. Sources of dispersion can be varied and are usually unknown to the transportation analysts. These sources could potentially affect the development of negative binomial (NB) regression models, which are often the model of choice in highway safety. To help in this endeavor, this paper documents an alternative formulation that could be used for capturing heterogeneity in crash count models through the use of finite mixture regression models. The finite mixtures of Poisson or NB regression models are especially useful where count data were drawn from heterogeneous populations. These models can help determine sub-populations or groups in the data among others. To evaluate these models, Poisson and NB mixture models were estimated using data collected in Toronto, Ontario. These models were compared to standard NB regression model estimated using the same data. The results of this study show that the dataset seemed to be generated from two distinct sub-populations, each having different regression coefficients and degrees of over-dispersion. Although over-dispersion in crash data can be dealt with in a variety of ways, the mixture model can help provide the nature of the over-dispersion in the data. It is therefore recommended that transportation safety analysts use this type of model before the traditional NB model, especially when the data are suspected to belong to different groups.     

Combining hygrothermal and corrosion models to predict corrosion of metal fasteners embedded in wood

A combined heat, moisture, and corrosion model is presented and used to simulate the corrosion of metal fasteners embedded in solid wood exposed to the exterior environment. First, the moisture content and temperature at the wood/fastener interface is determined at each time step. Then, the amount of corrosion is determined spatially using an empirical corrosion rate model and the inputs of the first step. The result is a corrosion profile along the length of the fastener generated by summing the corrosion depths determined at each time step. We apply the combined model to predict the annual corrosion depth along a metal fastener in wood decks situated in nine different US cities. Corrosion profiles are found to exhibit the same general shape independently of climatic load, with the largest amount of corrosion occurring at 1–5 mm from the wood surface with corrosion depths ranging from 5 μm in Phoenix, Arizona to 45 μm in Hilo, Hawaii. Corrosion is confined to the first 7–20 mm of the fastener below the wood surface. By varying the climatic loads, we find that although there is a definite relation between total annual rain and total annual corrosion, under the same rain loads corrosion is higher for a climate with more evenly distributed rain events. The proposed combined model is able to capture corrosion behavior under varying loading. A sensitivity analysis gives guidelines for future corrosion modeling work for fasteners in wood.     

Low-frequency scattering from perfectly conducting spheroidal bodies in a conductive medium with magnetic dipole excitation

Inductive electromagnetic means that are currently employed in the exploration of the Earth’s subsurface and embedded voluminous bodies often call for an intensive use, primary at the modeling stage and later on at the inversion stage, of analytically demanding tools of field calculation. Under the aim of modeling implementation, this contribution is concerned with some interesting aspects of the low-frequency interaction of arbitrarily orientated (i.e. three-dimensional) time-harmonic magnetic dipoles, with 3-D perfectly conducting spheroidal bodies embedded in an otherwise homogeneous conductive medium. For many practical applications involving buried obstacles such as Earth’s subsurface electromagnetic probing at low-frequency or any other physical cases (e.g. geoelectromagnetics), non-axisymmetric spheroidal geometry approximates sufficiently such kind of metallic shapes. On the other hand, our analytical approach deals with prolate spheroids, since the corresponding results for the oblate spheroidal geometry can be readily obtained through a simple transformation. The particular physical model concerns a solid impenetrable (metallic) body under a magnetic dipole excitation, where the scattering boundary value problem is attacked via rigorous low-frequency expansions for the incident, scattered and total electric and magnetic fields in terms of positive integral powers of (ik), that is (ik)ⁿ for n ? 0, where k stands for the complex wavenumber of the exterior medium. The purpose of the modeling is to contribute to a simple yet versatile tool to infer information on an unknown body from measurements of the three-component electric and magnetic fields nearby. Our goal is to obtain the most important terms of the low-frequency expansions of the electromagnetic fields, that is the static (for n = 0) and the dynamic (n = 1, 2, 3) terms. In particular, for n = 1 there are no incident fields and thus no scattered ones, while for n = 0 the Rayleigh electromagnetic expression is easily obtained in terms of infinite series. Emphasis is given on the calculation of the next two non-trivial terms (at n = 2 and at n = 3) of the aforementioned fields. Consequently, those are found in closed form from exact solutions of coupled (at n = 2, to the one at n = 0) or uncoupled (at n = 3) Laplace equations and they are given in compact fashion, as infinite series expansions for n = 2 or finite forms for n = 3. Nevertheless, the difficulty of the Poisson’s equation that has to be solved for n = 2 is presented, whereas our analytical approach demands the use of the well-known cut-off method in order to obtain an analytical closed solution. Finally, this research adds useful reference results to the already ample library of scattering by simple shapes using analytical methods.     

Multiple-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann models in three dimensions

This article provides a concise exposition of the multiple-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann equation, with examples of 15-velocity and 19-velocity models in three dimensions. Simulation of a diagonally lid-driven cavity flow in three dimensions at Re = 500 and 2000 is performed. The results clearly demonstrate the superior numerical stability of the multiple-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann equation over the popular lattice Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook equation.     

Nanometer-scale organic thin film transistors from self-assembled monolayers

A survey of the most interesting results on nanometer-scale organic thin film transistors (nano-OTFT) is presented. Additionally, we discuss our recent results on the properties of end-group functionalized organic self-assembled monolayers and on their use in the fabrication of nanometer-scale field-effect transistors. Nanometer-scale organic transistors (channel length 30 nm) were fabricated, with a self-assembled monolayer as gate insulator. The carrier transport in these transistors, as a function of the channel length, was investigated, and a transition from a dispersive to a ballistic transport at a channel length of 200 nm was observed. On a molecular scale, alkyl monolayers functionalized at their omega-ends by aromatic moieties were prepared. A high anisotropic conductivity in molecular insulator/semiconductor heterostructures of monolayer thickness was observed. These molecular architectures provide a basis for the building blocks of molecular transistors.     

Retrieval of the ultraviolet aerosol optical depth during a spring campaign in the Bavarian Alps

A measurement campaign was organized in March 1999 in the Bavarian Alps as part of the European project, Characteristics of the UV Radiation Field in the Alps (CUVRA), to analyze the effect of altitude, aerosols, and snow cover on ground-level UV spectral irradiance. We present the results of simultaneous measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) made at various sites on two cloudless days in March 1999. The two days exhibited different aerosol conditions. Results derived from spectral measurements of UV irradiance are compared with data from filter radiometer measurements made at discrete wavelengths extending from the UV to the near IR. The different methods generated values for the AOD that were in good agreement. This result confirms that one can use either method to retrieve the AOD with an uncertainty of approximately 0.03-0.05. On 18 March, high turbidity was observed at low altitude (400-nm AOD approximately 0.5 at 700 m above sea level), and the AOD decreased regularly with altitude; on 24 March, the turbidity was much less (0.11 at 700 m above sea level). On both days very low AODs (0.05-0.09) were measured at 3000 m above sea level. The spectral dependence of the AOD is often parameterized by the angstrom relationship; the alpha parameter is generally difficult or impossible to retrieve from spectral measurements because of the relatively narrow wavelength range (320-400 nm), and only one of the spectro-radiometers used during the campaign permits this retrieval. In most cases, during this field campaign, alpha was found by filter sunphotometers to be 1.1-1.5.     

Toxic effects of Irgarol 1051 on phytoplankton and macrophytes in Lake Geneva

Irgarol 1051 is a recent herbicidal compound, inhibitor of photosynthesis, used in antifouling paints. This toxic is persistent in aquatic environments, with low abiotic and biotic degradation, highly phytotoxic, and has already been detected in estuaries and coastal areas, with suspected negative impacts on non-target organisms (aquatic plants and algae). We measured the toxicity of Irgarol 1051 to macrophytes and phytoplankton from Lake Geneva (between Switzerland and France) by determining chlorophyll fluorescence yield, and phytoplankton primary production. Long-term toxicity for phytoplankton was estimated in a microcosm study, and growth inhibition tests were performed with isolated algal strains. The concentration of Irgarol 1051 was analysed in the water, and the most polluted site showed a higher level (up to 135 ng/L) than the lowest observed effect concentration for phytoplankton (8-80 ng/L), while the macrophytes appeared to be more tolerant to Irgarol 1051 in short-term tests. The microcosm study showed that phytoplankton structure might be even more sensitive to Irgarol 1051.     

Development of an electromagnetic tool for the accurate synthesis of manifold multiplexers: The dynamic inverter

This article presents an electromagnetic tool for the synthesis of manifold multiplexers — the dynamic inverter. By associating this model with the classical circuit model of the filter, the broadband behaviour of each filter can be analysed rapidly and then optimised accurately for an efficient synthesis of the manifold multiplexer. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J RF and Microwave CAE, 2005.