The road to maturity: navigating between craft and science

C. Ebert presents his views on the state of software engineering as a field, its roots and inherent conflicts, its relationship to other engineering disciplines, where it is headed, and what we can do to influence that direction. T. Matsubara, T. Webb, M. Pezze, and O.W. Bertelsen offer a spectrum of further insights     

Development of a recurrent Sigma-Pi neural network rainfall forecasting system in Hong Kong

At the moment, weather forecasting is still an art — the experience and intuition of forecasters play a significant role in determining the quality of forecasting. This paper describes the development of a new approach to rainfall forecasting using neural networks. It deals with the extraction of information from radar images and an evaluation of past rain gauge records to provide shortterm rainfall forecasting. All of the meteorological data were provided by the Royal Observatory of Hong Kong (ROHK). Preprocessing procedures were essential for this neural network rainfall forecasting. The forecast of the rainfall was performed every half an hour so that a storm warning signal can be delivered to the public in advance. The network architecture is based on a recurrent Sigma-Pi network. The results are very promising, and this neural-based rainfall forecasting system is capable of providing a rain storm warning signal to the Hong Kong public one hour ahead.     

A Metallographic Study of Abnormal Grain Growth During Aging of a β-Quenched Zr-1.14 Wt% Cr-0.08 Wt% Fe Alloy

Results are reported of a detailed optical and electron metallographic study of the effects of variations in quenching rate from the β-phase and aging temperature in the + ZrCr₂ phase region, on the recrystallization and grain growth characteristics of Zr-1.14 wt% Cr-0.08 wt% Fe alloy used for nuclear fuel sheathing. It is shown that certain quenching rates, which produce a mixed martensitic-Widmanstätten structure, should be avoided during the fabrication of fuel sheathing, since recrystallization and grain growth occurs at a much lower temperature than a material quenched at such a rate that the structure is wholly Widmanstätten or wholly martensitic. Preaging at 350 or 450°C prior to the high-temperature (700–750°C) aging reduces the incidence of recrystallization and grain growth.     

Perinatal problems and the prevention of premature labor]

The article describes the experience of implementing patient-focused care from a physician's perspective. Pitfalls that guarantee failure are presented, many of which are avoidable with early participation by all parties involved: administrators, nursing staff, physicians, and patients. Contamination of the process with downsizing needs, lack of support for staff in dealing with necessary change, loss of administrative commitment, and withholding of appropriated funds are among the key errors to be avoided.     

Direct evidence of high DNA binding activity of transcription factor AP-1 in rheumatoid arthritis synovium

Green fluorescent protein (GFP) is increasingly being used in plant biology from the cellular level to whole plant level. At the cellular level, GFP is being used as an in vivo reporter to assess frequency of transient and stable transformation. GFP has also proven to be an invaluable tool in monitoring trafficking and subcellular localization of protein. At the organ level and up, many exciting applications are rapidly emerging. The development of brighter GFP mutants with more robust folding properties has enabled better macroscopic visualization of GFP in whole leaves and plants. One interesting example has been the use of GFP to monitor virus movement in and among whole plants. GFP is also emerging as a powerful tool to monitor transgene movement and transgenic plants in the field. In a proof-of-concept study, tobacco was transformed with a modified version of the GFP gene controlled by a constitutive (35S) promoter. GFP expression in progeny plants ranged from 0% to 0.5%, and approximately 0.1% GFP was the minimal amount needed for unambiguous macroscopic detection. GFP is the first truly in vivo reporter system useful in whole plants, and we project its usefulness will increase even further as better forms of GFP genes become available.     

Artificial neural networks for coordination and control: The portability of experiential representations

It is time to locate connectionist representation theory in the new wave of robotics research. The utility of representations developed in artificial neural networks (ANNs) during learning has been demonstrated in cognitive science research since the 1980s. The research reported here puts learned representations to work in a decentered control task, the disembodied arm problem, in which a mobile robot operates an arm fixed to a table to pick up objects. There is no physical linkage between the arm and the robot and so the robot's point of view must be decentered. This is done by developing a modular Artificial Neural Net system in three stages: (i) a classifier net is trained with laser scan data to output transformationally invariant position classes; (ii) an arm net is trained for picking up objects; (iii) an inter net is trained to communicate and coordinate the sensing and acting. The completed system is shown to create new nonsymbolic transformationally invariant representations in order to perform the effective generalization of decentered viewpoints.     

Study of the heart rate and energy expenditure of ponies during transport

The energy expenditure and heart rate of five Shetland ponies were measured during transport and compared with the values recorded while they were at rest and walking. Secondary aims of the study were to investigate whether there was any correlation between heart rate and energy expenditure and whether different orientations affected the values to different degrees. The measurements were recorded at one-minute intervals while the ponies were at rest, walking and being transported in four different orientations, on journeys lasting 30 minutes. There were significant increases (P < 0.001) in both heart rate and energy expenditure during transport which were similar to those associated with walking, and there was a strong correlation between the two measurements. There was no conclusive evidence that orientation affected the measurements, but it appeared that rear facing transport might have had the least effect.     

EEG spectral abnormalities and psychosis as predictors of cognitive and functional decline in probable Alzheimer's disease

We examined whether either psychotic features (e.g., delusions and hallucinations) or EEG abnormalities are associated with more rapid progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD patients with psychosis have exhibited more EEG abnormalities than those without psychosis, and both abnormal EEG and psychosis have been noted to be predictors of functional and cognitive decline in AD. Ninety-five probable AD patients participating in a longitudinal study of dementia had an EEG and a semistructured psychiatric interview at baseline. Using EEG spectral analysis, we classified records as normal/abnormal based on the parasagittal mean frequency. Patients with abnormal EEGs were more functionally (e.g., Blessed Rating Scale for activities of daily living) and cognitively (e.g., Mini-Mental State) impaired than patients with normal EEG. AD patients with psychosis were only more functionally impaired than patients without psychosis. A two-factor analysis showed no interaction between abnormal EEG and psychosis. In addition, using a Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for age and education, the presence of an abnormal EEG or psychotic symptom at study entry was associated with higher risk of reaching severe cognitive and functional impairment during follow-up. Neither abnormal EEG nor the presence of psychosis predicted death. These results indicate that both abnormal EEG and psychosis are independent predictors of disease progression but not of physical survival.     

The ultradian clocks of eukaryotic microbes: timekeeping devices displaying a homeostasis of the period

Ultra-high-sensitivity, biopolymer sequencing is a goal in many fields of molecular biology, and collisionally activated decomposition electrospray mass spectrometry (CAD ES MS/MS) using a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer has become a method of choice for work in the high- to mid-femtomole range. However, when the detection of ions becomes statistical, as it may in that range, the mass assignment of fragment ions is inaccurate and either sequencing becomes impossible or ambiguities result due, for example, to the closeness in amino acid residue masses (I/L, N or K/Q, E). Some ambiguities may be resolved by synthesizing possible sequences, but this is unsatisfactory. In considering the limitations of triple quadrupole MS/MS with respect to scanning ion detection, resolution, transmission, and mass accuracy, we reasoned that a novel geometry quadrupole orthogonal acceleration time-of-flight (Q-TOF) instrument would have special merit for ultra-high-sensitivity MS/MS sequencing, and suggested its construction for this purpose some three years ago. A prototype Q-TOF has now been built by Micromass [Morris et al. (1996), Rapid Commun. Mass Spectrom. 10, 889-896], and in the first research on the instrument, including MHC antigen and filarial nematode glycoprotein studies, we demonstrate low-femtomole- and attomole-range sequencing with mass accuracy of better than 0.1 Da throughout the daughter-ion spectrum, thus removing sequencing ambiguities in some of the most challenging work demanding the highest sensitivity.     

Epilepsy, retarded growth and onchocerciasis, in two areas of different endemicity of onchocerciasis in Burundi

A high prevalence of epilepsy (up to 1.3%) was observed in an area hyperendemic for onchocerciasis in the province of Bururi, Burundi. Following this observation, epileptics and controls were examined in 2 communes (administrative units) with different endemicity for onchocerciasis. Altogether, onchocerciasis was more frequent in epileptics (81.8%) than in controls from the same households (68.3%; P < 0.05). This difference was more marked in the hyperendemic area. Other possible causes of epilepsy, including cysticercosis, were infrequent (18 possible cases among 110 epileptics). During this survey, 9 epileptics with growth retardation were seen. They showed most characteristics of Nakalanga syndrome, which was described from Uganda. All 9 such cases were suffering from onchocerciasis. These findings give more evidence of a possible association between onchocerciasis and epilepsy, and between onchocerciasis and Nakalanga syndrome.