Calibration of Expert Judgments Applied to Uncertainty Assessment

Abstract:

This article contributes a methodology for eliciting expert judgment in support of decision analysis associated with the conceptual design of advanced engineering systems. To provide a basis for decision making in the presence of model and input parameter uncertainties, experts in several disciplines can be utilized to provide model parameter estimates to facilitate analyses. The judgment elicitation methodology was developed to cover a multitude of system disciplines using multiple experts. To address consistency in expert assessments, the methodology includes expert assessment calibration means. A sample application of the resultant expert judgment methodology is discussed. An engineering manager can use the methodology described in this article to assess viability of potential courses of action in high-risk or advanced state-of-the-art technology systems development ventures.     

What installed mobile applications tell about their owners and how they affect users’ download behavior

The rapid growth in the mobile application market presents a significant challenge to find interesting and relevant applications for users. An experimental study was conducted through the use of a specifically designed mobile application, on users’ mobile phones. The goals were; first, to learn about the users’ personality and the applications they downloaded to their mobile phones, second to recommend applications to users via notifications through the use of experimental mobile application and learn about user behavior in mobile environment. The question of how the personality features of users affect their compliance to recommendations is explored in this study. It is found that conscientiousness is positively related with accepting recommended applications and being agreeable is related with the preference for the applications of editor’s choice. Furthermore, in this study, applications owned by the user and the composition of applications under categories and their relation with personality features are explored. It is shown that the number of user owned applications and their category differ according to gender and personality. Having similar applications and the number of applications owned under specific categories increase the probability of accepting recommended applications.     

Chemical and microbiological status and volatile profiles of mouldy Civil cheese,a Turkish mould‐ripened variety

The objective of this study is to characterise the gross chemical and microbiological status and identify the volatile compounds of mouldy Civil cheeses. A total of forty‐one samples were surveyed, and gross compositional status of the cheeses was (as mean values): 6.5 for pH, 6.2% for fat‐in‐dry matter, 51.8% for moisture and 15.3% for water‐soluble nitrogen (as% of total nitrogen). Chemical composition of the cheese samples varied widely. Mouldy Civil cheese has similar pH values and moisture contents when compared with blue‐type cheeses, but it has distinct feature for fat contents. The microbiological counts of the samples were found to be high and some samples contained coliform bacteria. A total of 95 volatiles, including esters (28), acids (6), ketones (12), aldehydes (3), alcohols (15), terpenes (10), sulphur compounds (3) and miscellaneous (18), were identified in the volatile fractions of the cheeses, and principal volatile groups were esters, alcohols and ketones.     

Geochemical characteristics of major and trace elements in Sahinali Coals,Aydin, Turkey

In this study, geochemical behavior of elements is investigated in 25 coal samples collected at 10 locations of ?ahinli coaliferous units at southeast of Ayd?n, Turkey. In all the samples, X-ray powder diffraction and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analyses were performed and element and mineral compositions were determined. Total organic carbon (TOC) values of coals are between 14.6 and 37.7 wt% with average of 28.5 wt%. Samples are composed of quartz, calcite, feldspar, dolomite, mica, gypsum, and salt minerals which are accompanied by illite-, kaolinite-, and smectite-type clay minerals. Comparison of average element contents of world coals and studied samples yields that K > Fe > As > U > Cs > Y > Er > Al > Th > Rb > Yb > W > Tb > Dy > Lu > Ce > Sm > La > Ho > Si > Nd > Gd > Tm > Eu > Nb > Pr > Pb > Sn > Ni > Cu > Ga > Ta > Sb > Zr > Cd > V > Zn > Co > Mo > P > Hf > Ba are found to be enriched, while Mn > Be > Ca > Sr > Bi > Mg are found to be depleted. Statistically elements are correlated with TOC.     

On-Chip-Integrated Nanowire Device Platform With Controllable Nanogap for Manipulation, Capturing, and Electrical Characterization of Nanoparticles

We propose and demonstrate nanowire (NW) device platforms on-chip integrated using electric-field-assisted self-assembly. This platform integrates from nanoprobes to microprobes, and conveniently allows for on-chip manipulation, capturing, and electrical characterization of nanoparticles (NPs). Synthesizing segmented (Au-Ag-Au) NWs and aligning them across predefined microelectrode arrays under ac electric field, we controllably form nanogaps between the self-aligned end (Au) segments by selectively removing the middle (Ag) segments. We precisely control and tune the size of this middle section for nanogap formation in the synthesis process. Using electric field across nanogaps between these nanoprobes, we capture NPs to electrically address and probe them at the nanoscale. This approach holds great promise for the construction of single NP devices with electrical nanoprobe contacts.     

Electrokinetic and antibacterial properties of needle like‐TiO2/polyrhodanine core/shell hybrid nanostructures

The aim of this study was to fabricate needle like‐TiO₂/polyrhodanine nanostructures by polymerizing rhodanine monomer on the TiO₂ nanoparticles' surfaces and investigate their antibacterial activities. The structural, thermal, morphological, surface and electrical properties of non‐covalently functionalized nanoparticles were characterized by using FTIR, XPS, elemental analysis, TGA, XRD, SEM‐EDX, TEM, contact angle, and conductivity measurements. Characterization results confirmed the formation of needle like‐TiO₂/polyrhodanine (PRh) core/shell hybrid nanostructures. Alterations on the surface and electrokinetic properties of the materials were characterized by zeta (ζ)‐potential measurements with the presence of various salts and surfactants. The ζ‐potential of needle like‐TiO₂ was observed to increase from ?7.6 mV to +28.4 mV after forming a core/shell needle like‐TiO₂/PRh nanocomposite structure and with the presence of cetyltrimethyl ammonium bromide (CTAB) surfactant. Thereby colloidally more stable dispersions were formed. Antibacterial properties of needle like‐TiO₂/PRh were also tested against Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Escherichia coli by various methods and they showed good antibacterial activity. The highest killing efficiency was determined for needle like‐TiO₂/PRh against E. coli by colony‐counting method as 0.95. TEM experiments also showed the immobilizations of the nanoparticles on E. coli and revealed the interactions between E. coli and the nanoparticles. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Appl. Polym. Sci. 2015 , 132, 41554.     

Modeling of heat and mass transfer in accelerator targets during postulated accidents

The modeling of thermal-chemical behavior of targets used in accelerator applications is an important part of safety analysis. Tungsten is considered as a target material to produce tritium in a linear proton accelerator. The prediction of the chemical reactivity of tungsten in a steam flow at high temperatures is the most important part of a safety analysis of target design. The oxidation and volatilization of tungsten in steam at high temperatures is a complex phenomenon that involves various mechanisms (depending on the temperature), steam pressure, and steam velocity. A simple diffusion model that considers chemical equilibrium at the reaction interface and effective diffusion thickness, including the boundary and oxide layers, is proposed for predicting the volatilization rate. The proposed simple model predicts the available data reasonably well. The proposed model is implemented into a computer program that is developed to predict the radiological releases during postulated loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). The computer program models heat production, heat transfer, and oxidation reactions in the multiple radiation enclosures representing the accelerator target elements. It treats each element of the radiation enclosures as a lumped control volume, or heat structure. Each heat structure may generate or lose heat by conduction, convection, or radiation and is subject to mass loss as a result of oxidation, melting, and volatilization. Postulated beyond-design-basis LOCAs are simulated with this computer program for the accelerator-production-of-tritium target. Sample calculations demonstrate oxidation/volatilization model capabilities and sensitivity to the assumptions selected.     

Poly(Li‐2‐hydroxyethyl methacrylate)‐co‐poly(4‐vinyl pyridine): Molar mass effects on strong electrorheological response

Electrorheological (ER) fluids display remarkable rheological behavior, being able to convert rapidly and repeatedly from a fluid to a solid‐like when an external electric field (E) is applied or removed. In this study, electrical and ER properties of poly(Li‐2‐hydroxyethyl methacrylate)‐co‐poly(4‐vinyl pyridine), poly(Li‐HEMA)‐co‐poly(4‐VP), copolymeric salts (ionomers) were investigated. For this purpose six ionomers were synthesized with different molar masses. They were then ground‐milled for a few hours to obtain micron size ionomers. The particle sizes of the ionomers were determined by dynamic light scattering. Suspensions of ionomers were prepared in silicone oil (SO), at a series of concentrations (c = 5–30%, m/m). The gravitational stability of suspensions against sedimentation was determined at constant temperature (T = 25°C). Flow times of the suspensions were measured under no electric field (E = 0 kV/mm), and under an external applied electric field (E ≠ 0 kV/mm) strengths and a strong ER activities were observed for all the poly(Li‐HEMA)‐co‐poly(4‐VP)/SO suspensions. Further, the effects of suspension concentration, mole ratios of poly(HEMA) and poly(4‐VP), and the overall molar mass of the copolymers, shear rate, electric field strength, frequency, promoter, and temperature onto ER activities of ionomer suspensions were investigated. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Appl Polym Sci 101: 1065–1074, 2006