ARMAX modelling of international tourism demand

Box–Jenkins (1970) models are often used to capture the autoregressive moving average of past observations of tourist arrivals from Japan to Taiwan and New Zealand. However, other explanatory variables, such as real income in the origin country, have also affected the demand for international travel. The purpose of this paper is to use the ARMAX model to investigate the dynamic relationship between tourism demand and real income of Japan, and to compare the findings with the single-equation model. Unit root tests and diagnostics are performed before estimating the income elasticity of travel demand by Japan for New Zealand and Taiwan based on seasonally unadjusted quarterly data for 1980(1) to 2004(2). The empirical results of the ARMAX model support the economic theory that the demand for international travel is positively related to income of the origin country.     

Experimental analysis and numerical modelling of the forming process of polypropylene replicas of micro-cavities using hot embossing

Numerical modelling of the deformation of a polymer using the finite elements method in axisymetrical mode was performed using the LsDyna^® software to describe the filling of micro-cavities during the forming process of the material using the hot embossing. These simulations firstly allow verifying whether the chosen forming process conditions promote or not an optimized filling of the superficial cavities in order to achieve precise replicas which best reproduce the superficial topography of the mould. The simulations were carried out to evaluate the filling of the cavities taking into account the mechanical behaviour of the selected polymer into the model. Moreover, these models were developed to verify the effect of the distribution of the mould cavities on their filling. The influence of the mobility of non deformable rigid plates on the filling of the cavities represents an auxiliary variable. In the approach presented, the compression plates are assumed to be parallel and non deformable, whereas the polymer disk follows a rubbery behaviour around a temperature equal to 140°C. Globally the modelling results are satisfactory for they are rather close to the experimental observations conducted. In summary, the effect of the normal stress as also the distribution of micro-cavities at the mould surface seem to prevail in the case of the forming process by hot embossing.     

On the relationship between subjective and objective measures of fatigue

Objective: Objective and subjective methods have been used in the past to assess workplace fatigue, but little is known about correlations between them. We examine correlations between subjective and objective measures, including measures collected in a workplace scenario. Methods: 15 young and 17 older participants were assessed before and after work with four types of fatigue measure: objective physical (posturography), objective mental (psychomotor vigilance task), subjective physical and mental (self-assessment), objective and subjective realistic (oculomotor behaviour, observer-rated facial expression, typing performance). Results: Pre- and post-test scores were analysed with an ANOVA, significant differences were submitted to a factor analysis. It yielded three factors: one representing posturography, the second self-rated mental and physical fatigue and the third observer-rated facial expression. Conclusions: Results advocate the existence of three independent fatigue components: Objective physical fatigue, introspective and extrospective fatigue.

Practitioner Summary: This study analyses correlations between different subjective and objective fatigue markers to better understand the complex nature of workplace fatigue. Measurements were conducted directly at the workplace. Results reveal that fatigue comprises three independent fatigue components: Objective physical fatigue, introspective and extrospective fatigue.     

Using knowledge structures to redesign an instructor-operator station

Frequently, user interface (UI) designers must choose between modifying an established, but suboptimal and familiar, UI or to avoid such changes. Changing the UI’s, organization may frustrate users who have become familiar with the original design, whereas failing to make changes may force users to perform at an unsatisfactory level. This paper presents two studies that investigate whether users familiar with a poorly designed UI would find items faster, and prefer a reorganized UI that conformed to domain expert knowledge, or would their familiarity with the original UI yield faster performance and higher satisfaction.This paper describes activities to redesign a menu structure in a simulator instructor–operator station (IOS) using hierarchical card sorting and cluster analysis (Romesburg, 2004). This analysis was used to reorganize the menu structure to reflect the knowledge representations of domain experts in accordance with the principle of proximity compatibility (Wickens and Carswell, 1995, Rothrock et al., 2006). The new design was validated with a separate set of users by a reaction time experiment and preference selection.     

Robust estimators and tests for bivariate copulas based on likelihood depth

Estimators and tests based on likelihood depth for one-parametric copulas are given. For the Gaussian and Gumbel copulas, it is shown that the maximum depth estimators are biased. They can be corrected and the new estimators are robust against contamination. For testing, simplicial likelihood depth is considered. Because of the bias of the maximum depth estimator, simplicial likelihood depth is not a degenerated U-statistic so that easily asymptotic α-level tests can be derived for arbitrary hypotheses. Tests are in particular investigated for the one-sided alternatives. Simulation studies for the Gaussian and Gumbel copulas show that the power of the first test is rather good, but the latter one has to be improved, which is also done here. The new tests are robust against contamination.     

On benefits and drawbacks of aging strategies for randomized search heuristics

Quite different search heuristics make use of the concept of assigning an age to search points and systematically remove search points that are too old from the search process. In evolutionary computation one defines some finite maximal lifespan and assigns age 0 to each new search point. In artificial immune systems static pure aging is used. There a finite maximal lifespan is defined but new search points inherit the age of their origin if they do not excel in function value. Both aging mechanisms are supposed to increase the capabilities of the respective search heuristics. A rigorous analysis for two typical difficult situations sheds light on similarities and differences. Considering the behavior on plateaus of constant function values and in local optima both methods are shown to have their strengths and weaknesses. A third aging operator is introduced that provably shares the advantages of both aging mechanisms. Experimental supplements are provided to point out practical implications of the theoretical results and discuss further issues concerning the considered aging strategies.     

Analyzing different variants of immune inspired somatic contiguous hypermutations

Artificial immune systems can be applied to a variety of very different tasks including function optimization. There are even artificial immune systems tailored specifically for this task. In spite of their successful application there is little knowledge and hardly any theoretical investigation about how and why they perform well. Here rigorous analyses for a specific class of mutation operators introduced for function optimization called somatic contiguous hypermutation is presented. Different concrete instantiations of this operator are considered and shown to behave quite differently in general. While there are serious limitations to the performance of this type of operator even for simple optimization tasks it is proven that for some types of optimization problems it performs much better than standard bit mutations most often used in evolutionary algorithms.     

Efficient search of combinatorial maps using signatures

In this paper, we address the problem of computing canonical representations of n-dimensional combinatorial maps and of using them for efficiently searching for a map in a database. We define two combinatorial map signatures: the first one has a quadratic space complexity and may be used to decide an isomorphism with a new map in linear time whereas the second one has a linear space complexity and may be used to decide an isomorphism in quadratic time. We show that these signatures can be used to efficiently search for a map in a database.     

Overcoming impediments to virtual team effectiveness

The term virtual team denotes an organizational team whose members rarely meet face to face but who nevertheless perform interdependent tasks in pursuit of collective goals. This article identifies the unique aspects of virtual teams that generate major barriers to their effectiveness, and suggests ways in which these may be either overcome or mitigated. A process‐oriented model of virtual team effectiveness is presented, identifying issues associated with the development of transactive memory systems, work engagement, and collective efficacy as major challenges to virtual team effectiveness. These issues are illustrated with reference to the experience of virtual teams within a minerals processing firm. Finally, the authors discuss aspects of virtual team leadership and team climate that may help overcome some of the potential process losses associated with virtual teamwork. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Digital microfluidic design and optimization of classic and new fluidic functions for lab on a chip systems

This paper deals with microfluidic studies for lab-on-a-chip development. The first goal was to develop microsystems immediately usable by biologists for complex protocol integrations. All fluid operations are performed on nano-liter droplet independently handled solely by electrowetting on dielectric (EWOD) actuation. A bottom-up architecture was used for chip design due to the development and validation of elementary fluidic designs, which are then assembled. This approach speeds up development and industrialization while minimizing the effort in designing and simplifying chip-fluidic programming. Dispensing reproducibility for 64 nl droplets obtained a CV below 3% and mixing time was only a few seconds. Ease of the integration was demonstrated by performing on chip serial dilutions of 2.8-folds, four times. The second part of this paper concerns the development of new innovative fluidic functions in order to extend EWOD-actuated digital fluidics’ capabilities. Experiments of particle dispensing by EWOD droplet handling are reported. Finally, work is shown concerning the coupling of EWOD actuation and magnetic fields for magnetic bead manipulation.