On statistical inference in time series analysis of the evolution of road safety

Data collected for building a road safety observatory usually include observations made sequentially through time. Examples of such data, called time series data, include annual (or monthly) number of road traffic accidents, traffic fatalities or vehicle kilometers driven in a country, as well as the corresponding values of safety performance indicators (e.g., data on speeding, seat belt use, alcohol use, etc.). Some commonly used statistical techniques imply assumptions that are often violated by the special properties of time series data, namely serial dependency among disturbances associated with the observations. The first objective of this paper is to demonstrate the impact of such violations to the applicability of standard methods of statistical inference, which leads to an under or overestimation of the standard error and consequently may produce erroneous inferences. Moreover, having established the adverse consequences of ignoring serial dependency issues, the paper aims to describe rigorous statistical techniques used to overcome them. In particular, appropriate time series analysis techniques of varying complexity are employed to describe the development over time, relating the accident-occurrences to explanatory factors such as exposure measures or safety performance indicators, and forecasting the development into the near future. Traditional regression models (whether they are linear, generalized linear or nonlinear) are shown not to naturally capture the inherent dependencies in time series data. Dedicated time series analysis techniques, such as the ARMA-type and DRAG approaches are discussed next, followed by structural time series models, which are a subclass of state space methods. The paper concludes with general recommendations and practice guidelines for the use of time series models in road safety research.     

Multilevel modelling for the regional effect of enforcement on road accidents

This paper investigates the effect of the intensification of Police enforcement on the number of road accidents at national and regional level in Greece, focusing on one of the most important road safety violations: drinking-and-driving. Multilevel negative binomial models are developed to describe the effect of the intensification of alcohol enforcement on the reduction of road accidents in different regions of Greece. Moreover, two approaches are explored as far as regional clustering is concerned: the first one concerns an ad hoc geographical clustering and the second one is based on the results of mathematical cluster analysis through demographic, transport and road safety characteristics. Results indicate that there are significant spatial dependences among road accidents and enforcement. Additionally, it is shown that these dependences are more efficiently interpreted when regions are determined on the basis of qualitative similarities than on the basis of geographical adjacency.     

Explaining the road accident risk: Weather effects

This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on “Data analysis and synthesis” of the EU-FP6 project “SafetyNet – Building the European Road Safety Observatory”, which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways – exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads – as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion.     

Investigating the Potential of Using Off-Axis 3D Woven Composites in Composite Joints’ Applications

The effect of circular notch has been evaluated for three different architectures of three-dimensional (3D) carbon fibre woven composites (orthogonal, ORT; layer-to-layer, LTL; angle interlock, AI) through open-hole quasi-static tension and double-lap bearing strength tests in the off-axis (45°) direction. Damage characterisation is monitored using Digital Image correlation (DIC) for open-hole testing and X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) for double-lap bearing strength test. The off-axis notched 3D woven composites exhibits minor reduction (less than 10 %) of the notched strength compared to the un-notched strength. DIC strain contour clearly show stress/strain localisation regions around the hole periphery and stress/strain redistribution away from the whole due to the z-binder existence, especially for ORT architecture. Up to 50 % bearing strain, no significant difference in the bearing stress/bearing strain response is observed. However when ORT architecture was loaded up to failure, it demonstrates higher strain to failure (~140 %) followed by AI (~105 %) and lastly LTL (~85 %). X-ray CT scans reveal the effect of the z-binder architecture on damage evolution and delamination resistance. The study suggests that off-axis loaded 3D woven composites, especially ORT architecture, has a great potential of overcoming the current challenges facing composite laminates when used in composite joints’ applications.     

A decade of science and engineering of composite materials at the North West Composites Centre,University of Manchester,UK

The University of Manchester, School of Materials has a large multidisciplinary research programme on polymers, composites and carbon-based materials. This takes place through fundamental studies of structure-property relationships for these materials, including controlled synthesis and processing, and effects of structure andnano-, meso- and macro-scale morphology on physical properties and engineering applications.     

Nonlinear Galerkin methods for a system of PDEs with Turing instabilities

We address and discuss the application of nonlinear Galerkin methods for the model reduction and numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDE) with Turing instabilities in comparison with standard (linear) Galerkin methods. The model considered is a system of PDEs modelling the pattern formation in vegetation dynamics. In particular, by constructing the approximate inertial manifold on the basis of the spectral decomposition of the solution, we implement the so-called Euler–Galerkin method and we compare its efficiency and accuracy versus the linear Galerkin methods. We compare the efficiency of the methods by (a) the accuracy of the computed bifurcation points, and, (b) by the computation of the Hausdorff distance between the limit sets obtained by the Galerkin methods and the ones obtained with a reference finite difference scheme. The efficiency with respect to the required CPU time is also accessed. For our illustrations we used three different ODE time integrators, from the Matlab ODE suite. Our results indicate that the performance of the Euler–Galerkin method is superior compared to the linear Galerkin method when either explicit or linearly implicit time integration scheme are adopted. For the particular problem considered, we found that the dimension of approximate inertial manifold is strongly affected by the lenght of the spatial domain. Indeeed, we show that the number of modes required to accurately describe the long time Turing pattern forming solutions increases as the domain increases.     

Comparison of the abilities of ambient and manufactured nanoparticles to induce cellular toxicity according to an oxidative stress paradigm

Nanomaterial properties differ from those bulk materials of the same composition, allowing them to execute novel activities. A possible downside of these capabilities is harmful interactions with biological systems, with the potential to generate toxicity. An approach to assess the safety of nanomaterials is urgently required. We compared the cellular effects of ambient ultrafine particles with manufactured titanium dioxide (TiO2), carbon black, fullerol, and polystyrene (PS) nanoparticles (NPs). The study was conducted in a phagocytic cell line (RAW 264.7) that is representative of a lung target for NPs. Physicochemical characterization of the NPs showed a dramatic change in their state of aggregation, dispersibility, and charge during transfer from a buffered aqueous solution to cell culture medium. Particles differed with respect to cellular uptake, subcellular localization, and ability to catalyze the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) under biotic and abiotic conditions. Spontaneous ROS production was compared by using an ROS quencher (furfuryl alcohol) as well as an NADPH peroxidase bioelectrode platform. Among the particles tested, ambient ultrafine particles (UFPs) and cationic PS nanospheres were capable of inducing cellular ROS production, GSH depletion, and toxic oxidative stress. This toxicity involves mitochondrial injury through increased calcium uptake and structural organellar damage. Although active under abiotic conditions, TiO2 and fullerol did not induce toxic oxidative stress. While increased TNF-alpha production could be seen to accompany UFP-induced oxidant injury, cationic PS nanospheres induced mitochondrial damage and cell death without inflammation. In summary, we demonstrate that ROS generation and oxidative stress are a valid test paradigm to compare NP toxicity. Although not all materials have electronic configurations or surface properties to allow spontaneous ROS generation, particle interactions with cellular components are capable of generating oxidative stress.     

Dissolution of a multicomponent DNAPL pool in an experimental aquifer

This paper presents the results from a well-defined, circular-shaped, multicomponent dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) pool dissolution experiment conducted in a three-dimensional, bench scale model aquifer. The multicomponent pool is a mixture of tetrachloroethylene (PCE) and 1,1,2-trichloroethane (1,1,2-TCA); PCE was the major component and 1,1,2-TCA was the minor component. Downgradient plume concentrations were measured at five specific locations over time until the majority of the 1,1,2-TCA was depleted from the DNAPL pool source. The experimental results suggest distinct spatial-temporal plume patterns for minor DNAPL components versus major DNAPL components. The downgradient concentration varied over time for 1,1,2-TCA while a stable plume developed for PCE. A semi-analytical solution for contaminant transport resulting from dissolution of multicomponent nonaqueous phase liquid pools successfully simulated the plume structure and dynamics for both the major and minor DNAPL components.     

Pecunia olet: The role of incidental disgust in the ultimatum game.

We address the role of the incidental emotion of disgust in the Ultimatum Game. Participants had to choose whether or not to accept a ? offer from a ?0 pot made by another participant; 120 were in a room where a disgusting smell was released and 120 were in a room with no particular smell. Acceptance rates were higher in the room with the disgusting smell. The effect was mainly carried by the male participants who also reported more disgust with the disgusting smell and judged the offer as less unfair than females. We propose a spontaneous discounting explanation. Acceptance rates were higher in the room with the disgusting smell because participants misattributed the disgust induced by the offer to the ambient disgusting smell. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Efficient BDDs for bounded arithmetic constraints

Symbolic model checkers use BDDs to represent arithmetic constraints over bounded integer variables. The size of such BDDs can in the worst case be exponential in the number and size (in bits) of the integer variables. In this paper we show how to construct linear-sized BDDs for linear integer arithmetic constraints. We present basic constructions for atomic equality and inequality constraints and generalize our complexity results for arbitrary linear arithmetic formulas. We also present three alternative ways of handling out-of-bounds transitions and discuss heterogeneous bounds on integer variables. We experimentally compare our approach to other BDD-based symbolic model checkers and demonstrate that the algorithms presented in this paper can be used to improve their performance significantly.