Forecasting the Level of Reservoirs Using Multiple Input Fuzzification in ANFIS

Estimation the Level of water is one of the crucial subjects in reservoir management influencing on reservoir operation and decision making. One of the most accurate artificial intelligence model used broadly in water resource aspects is adaptive neuro-fuzzy interface system (ANFIS) taking in to account the membership functions (MF) on the basis of the smoothness characteristics and mathematical components each for set of input data. All researches in hydrological estimation used ANFIS, merely a type of MF has been noticed for all sets of inputs without considering the response of each of them. This study is applying a specified certain MFs for each type of input to improve the accuracy of ANFIS model in forecasting the water level in Klang Gates Dam in Malaysia. On the basis of the previous studies, two most popular MFs, Generalized Bell Shape MF and, Gaussian MF, are employed for examine the new pattern in two inputs ANFIS architecture resulted less stress in error performance, and higher accuracy in estimation, compare to the traditional ANFIS model. The aim is achieved by evaluating the performance in and fitness of the model in daily reservoir estimation.     

Optimisation of Multiple Hydropower Reservoir Operation Using Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm

In this study, the Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm was developed to solve the Chenderoh Reservoir operation optimisation problem which located in the state of Perak, Malaysia. The proposed algorithm aimed to minimise the water deficit in the operating system and examine its performance impact based on monthly and weekly data input. Due to its capability to identify different possible events occurring in the reservoir, the ABC algorithm provides promising and comparable solutions for optimum release curves. The optimal release curves were then used to stimulate the reservoir release under different operating times under different inflow scenarios. To investigate the performance of both the monthly and weekly ABC optimisation employed in the reservoir, the well-known reliability, resilience and vulnerability indices were used for performance assessment. The indices tests revealed that weekly ABC optimisation outperformed in terms of reliability and vulnerability leading to the development of a better release policy for optimal operation.     

Assessment of Stochastic Operation Optimization for Reservoirs of Contrasting Scales

Deriving optimal release policies for dams and corresponding reservoirs is crucial for the sustainable water resources management of a region as they directly control the distribution of water to several users. Mathematical optimization algorithms can help in finding efficient reservoir operating strategies taking into account complex system constraints and hydrologic uncertainty. The robustness of operation optimization models may be influenced by physical reservoir characteristics such as size and scale and the effectiveness of a model for a particular case study does not always guarantee the same level of success for another application. This research focused on assessing the applicability of an implicit stochastic optimization (ISO) procedure to derive rule curves for two different dams of contrasting reservoir scales in terms of physical and operational characteristics. The results demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed technique for both small- and large-scale systems in view of the lower vulnerability provided by the ISO-derived policies in contrast to operations carried out by the standard reservoir operating policy as well as the proximity of the ISO operations with those by perfect-forecast deterministic optimization. The ISO procedure also provided operating rules similar to, and even less vulnerable than, those derived by stochastic dynamic programming.     

Optimized River Stream-Flow Forecasting Model Utilizing High-Order Response Surface Method

Accurate and reliable stream-flow forecasting has a key role in water resources planning and management. Most recently, soft computing approaches have become progressively prevalent in modelling hydrological variables and most specifically stream-flows. This is due to their ability to capture the non-linearity and non-stationarity characteristics of the hydrological variables with minimum information requirements. Despite this, they present several challenges in the modelling architecture, as there is a need to establish a suitable pre-processing method for the stream-flow data and an appropriate optimization model has to be integrated in order re-adjust the weights and biases associated with the model structure. On top of that, artificial intelligent models require “trial and error” procedures in order to be properly tuned (number of hidden layers, number of neurons within the hidden layers and the type of the transfer function). However, soft computing approach experienced several problems while calibration such as over-fitting. In this research, the Response Surface Method (RSM) is improved based on high-order polynomial functions for forecasting the river stream-flow namely; High-Order Response Surface (HORS) method. Several higher orders have been examined, second, third, fourth and fifth polynomial functions in order to figure out the best fit that able to mimic the pattern of stream-flow. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, monthly stream-flow time series data located in Aswan High Dam (AHD) has been examined. A detailed analysis of the overall statistical indicators revealed that the proposed method showed outstanding performance for monthly stream-flow forecasting at AHD. It could be concluded that the fifth order polynomial function outperforms the other orders of the polynomial functions especially with May model who achieved minimum MAE 0.12, NRMSE 0.07, MSE 0.03 and maximum SF and R² (0.97, 0.99) respectively.     

New Approach: Integrated Risk-Stochastic Dynamic Model for Dam and Reservoir Optimization

Multiple studies have developed management models to identify optimal operating policies for reservoirs in the last four decades. In an uncertain environment, in which climatic factors such as stream flow are stochastic, the economic returns from reservoir releases that are based on policy are uncertain. Furthermore, the consequences of reservoir release are not fully realized until it occurs. Rather than explicitly recognizing the full spectrum of consequences that are possible within an uncertain environment, the existing optimization models have focused on addressing these uncertainties by identifying the release policies that optimize the summative metric of the risks that are associated with release decisions. This technique has limitations for representing risks that are associated with release policy decisions. In fact, the approach of these techniques may conflict with the actual attitudes of the decision-makers regarding the risk aspects of release policies. The risk aspects of these decisions affect the design and operation of multi-purpose reservoirs. A method is needed to completely represent and evaluate potential consequences that are associated with release decisions. In this study, these techniques were reviewed from the stochastic model and risk analysis perspectives. Therefore, previously developed optimization models for operating dams and reservoirs were reviewed based on their advantages and disadvantages. Specifically, optimal release decisions that use the stochastic variable impacts and the levels of risk that are associated with decisions were evaluated regarding model performance. In addition, a new approach was introduced to develop an optimization model that is capable of replicating the manner in which reservoir release decision risks are perceived and interpreted. This model is based on the Neural Network (NN) theory and enables a more complete representation of the risk function that occurs from particular reservoir release decisions.     

Grafting of High α-Cellulose Pulp Extracted from Sunflower Stalks for Removal of Hg (II) from Aqueous Solution

Dissolving pulp containing 95.5% α-cellulose was extracted from sunflower stalks. The pulped sunflower stalks (PSFS) were used as starting material for grafting with acrylamide (Aam). All factors affecting the grafting reaction were examined. These factors include liquor ratio (LR), ceric ammonium nitrate (CAN) concentration as a catalyst, Aam concentration, as well as reaction time and temperature. The grafted PSFS (GPSFS) samples were characterized by estimation of nitrogen %. The GPSFS was utilized as adsorbent material to remove Hg (II) ions from aqueous solutions. All factors affecting adsorption process were examined. These factors include pH, adsorbent concentration, temperature, and agitation time. The adsorption data show that the maximum adsorption capacity, q_e, of Hg (II) onto GPSFS is 625 mg/g. The adsorption data also showed that the adsorption of Hg (II) onto GPSFS obeys Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms.     

Neural network modeling of time-dependent creep deformations in masonry structures

Stresses and deformations in concrete and masonry structures can be significantly altered by creep. Thus, neglecting creep could result in un-conservative design of new structures and/or underestimation of the level of its effect on stress redistribution in existing structures. Brickwork has substantial creep strain that is difficult to predict because of its dependence on many uncontrolled variables. Reliable and accurate prediction models for the long-term, time-dependent creep deformation of brickwork structures are needed. Artificial intelligence techniques are suitable for such applications. A model based on radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) is proposed for predicting creep and is compared to a multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) model recently developed for the same purpose. Accurate prediction of creep was achieved due to the simple architecture and fast training procedure of RBFNN model especially when compared to MLPNN model. The RBFNN model shows good agreement with experimental creep data from brickwork assemblages collected over the last 15 years.     

3-(α-Cyanoarylidene)phthalides and Related Compounds. Part I

The formation of 3-(α-cyanoarylidene)phthalides 1a – g , by interaction of benzyl cyanides with phthalic anhydrides was studied under various conditions. The by-products, accompanying 3-(α-cyanobenzal)phthalide 1a , were identified as phthalimide, benzalphthalide 2 and 3-(α-carbamoylbenzal)phthalide 6 .     

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system–based model for elevation–surface area–storage interrelationships

In the developing of an optimal operation schedule for dams and reservoirs, reservoir simulation is one of the critical steps that must be taken into consideration. For reservoirs to have more reliable and flexible optimization models, their simulations must be very accurate. However, a major problem with this simulation is the phenomenon of nonlinearity relationships that exist between some parameters of the reservoir. Some of the conventional methods use a linear approach in solving such problems thereby obtaining not very accurate simulation most especially at extreme values, and this greatly influences the efficiency of the model. One method that has been identified as a possible replacement for ANN and other common regression models currently in use for most analysis involving nonlinear cases in hydrology and water resources–related problems is the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The use of this method and two other different approaches of the ANN method, namely feedforward back-propagation neural network and radial basis function neural network, were adopted in the current study for the simulation of the relationships that exist between elevation, surface area and storage capacity at Langat reservoir system, Malaysia. Also, another model, auto regression (AR), was developed to compare the analysis of the proposed ANFIS and ANN models. The major revelation from this study is that the use of the proposed ANFIS model would ensure a more accurate simulation than the ANN and the classical AR models. The results obtained showed that the simulations obtained through ANFIS were actually more accurate than those of ANN and AR; it is thus concluded that the use of ANFIS method for simulation of reservoir behavior will give better predictions than the use of any new or existing regression models.     

Rainfall data analyzing using moving average (MA) model and wavelet multi-resolution intelligent model for noise evaluation to improve the forecasting accuracy

Rainfall forecasting and approximation of its magnitude have a huge and imperative role in water management and runoff forecasting. The main objective of this paper is to obtain the relationship between rainfall time series achieved from wavelet transform (WT) and moving average (MA) in Klang River basin, Malaysia. For this purpose, the Haar and Dmey WTs were applied to decompose the rainfall time series into 7, 10 different resolution levels, respectively. Several preprocessing case studies based on 2-, 3-, 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-month MAs were carried out to discover a longer-term trend compared to a shorter-term MA. The information and data were gathered from Klang Gates Dam, Malaysia, from 1997 to 2008. Regarding the behavior, the time series of 10-, 15-, 20-, and 30-day rainfall are decomposed into approximation and details coefficient with different kind of WT. Correlation coefficient R ² and root-mean-square error criteria are applied to examine the performance of the models. The results show that there are some similarities between MA filters and wavelet approximation sub-series filters due to noise elimination. Moreover, the results obtained that the high correlation with MAs can be achieved via Dmey WT compared to Haar wavelet for rainfall data. Moreover, clean signals could be used as model inputs to improve the model performance. Therefore, signal decomposition techniques for the purpose of data preprocessing could be favorable and could be appropriate for elimination of the errors.