Using an integrated process of data and modeling in HRA

The paper describes an approach taken to estimate the probabilities of failure associated with various railroad tasks to prevent accidents (principally collisions and derailments). These probabilities were estimated using an expert elicitation process that used partially relevant data available from a variety of databases and that were filtered and scaled to make them more directly relevant to the analyses being performed. Extensive qualitative studies were performed prior to the elicitation process to identify relevant contexts under which the tasks can be performed.     

Statistical prediction of fracture parameters of concrete and implications for choice of testing standard

This article shows how the fracture energy of concrete, as well as other fracture parameters such as the effective length of the fracture process zone, critical crack-tip opening displacement and the fracture toughness, can be approximately predicted from the standard compression strength, maximum aggregate size, water-cement ratio, and aggregate type (river or crushed). A database, consisting of 238 test data, is extracted from the literature and tabulated, and approximate mean prediction formulae calibrated by this very large data set are developed. A distinction is made between (a) the fracture energy, G_f, corresponding to the area under the initial tangent of the softening stress-separation curve of cohesive crack model, which governs the maximum loads of structures and is obtained by the size effect method (SEM) or related methods (Jenq-Shah two-parameter method and Karihaloo's effective crack model, ECM) and (b) the fracture energy, G_F, corresponding to the area under the complete stress-separation curve, which governs large postpeak deflections of structures and is obtained by the work-of-fracture method (WFM) proposed for concrete by Hillerborg. The coefficients of variation of the errors in the prediction formulae compared to the test data are calculated; they are 17.8% for G_f and 29.9% for G_F, the latter being 1.67 times higher than the former. Although the errors of the prediction formulae taking into account the differences among different concretes doubtless contribute significantly to the high values of these coefficients of variation, there is no reason for a bias of the statistics in favor of G_f or G_F. Thus, the statistics indicate that the fracture energy based on the measurements in the maximum load region is much less uncertain than that based on the measurement of the tail of the postpeak load-deflection curve. While both G_f and G_F are needed for accurate structural analysis, it follows that if the testing standard should measure, for the sake of simplicity, only one of these two fracture energies, then G_f is preferable.     

Interannual vegetation phenology estimates from global AVHRR measurements: Comparison with in situ data and applications

In a previous paper, we described a procedure to correct the directional effects in AVHRR reflectance time series. The corrected measurements show much less high frequency variability than their original counterparts, which makes them suitable to study vegetation dynamics. The time series are used here to estimate the start and ending dates of the growing season for 18 years from 1982 to 1999. We focus on the interannual variations of these phenological parameters.A database of in situ phenology observations is used to quantify the accuracy of the satellite-based estimates. Although based on a limited sampling of the Northern mid and high latitudes, the comparison indicates that i) the satellite phenological product contains meaningful information on interannual onset anomalies; ii) there is a higher degree of consistency over regions covered by Broadleaf Forests, Grasses and cereal Crops than over those covered by Needleleaf Forests or Savannas; and iii) the satellite phenological product is of lower quality in regions with mountainous terrain. In favorable conditions, interannual variations of the onset are captured with an accuracy of a few days.As this satellite-derived product captures the interannual onset variability at ground-truth sites, we confidently use it to larger scales studies. Mapped at a continental scale, the onset anomalies show coherent patterns at the regional (≈ 1000 km) scale for the mid and high latitudes of the Northern hemisphere, which is consistent with a meteorological forcing. In the tropics, there is larger spatial heterogeneity, which suggests more complex controls of the phenology. The relation between vegetation phenology and climate is further investigated over Europe by comparing the variability of the satellite-derived vegetation onset and that of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, at a fine spatial scale. The strong correlations observed confirm that this climate forcing parameter explains most of the onset variability over a large fraction of Northern Europe (earlier onsets for positive winter NAO), with lower impact towards the south and opposite effects around the Mediterranean basin. The NAO has a predictive character as the January-February NAO index is strongly correlated with the vegetation onset that occurs around April in Northern Europe.     

Patient-Derived Multiple Myeloma 3D Models for Personalized Medicine—Are We There Yet?

Despite the wide variety of existing therapies, multiple myeloma (MM) remains a disease with dismal prognosis. Choosing the right treatment for each patient remains one of the major challenges. A new approach being explored is the use of ex vivo models for personalized medicine. Two-dimensional culture or animal models often fail to predict clinical outcomes. Three-dimensional ex vivo models using patients’ bone marrow (BM) cells may better reproduce the complexity and heterogeneity of the BM microenvironment. Here, we review the strengths and limitations of currently existing patient-derived ex vivo three-dimensional MM models. We analyze their biochemical and biophysical properties, molecular and cellular characteristics, as well as their potential for drug testing and identification of disease biomarkers. Furthermore, we discuss the remaining challenges and give some insight on how to achieve a more biomimetic and accurate MM BM model. Overall, there is still a need for standardized culture methods and refined readout techniques. Including both myeloma and other cells of the BM microenvironment in a simple and reproducible three-dimensional scaffold is the key to faithfully mapping and examining the relationship between these players in MM. This will allow a patient-personalized profile, providing a powerful tool for clinical and research applications.     

Pre-Omicron Vaccine Breakthrough Infection Induces Superior Cross-Neutralization against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 Compared to Infection Alone

SARS-CoV-2 variants raise concern because of their high transmissibility and their ability to evade neutralizing antibodies elicited by prior infection or by vaccination. Here, we compared the neutralizing abilities of sera from 70 unvaccinated COVID-19 patients infected before the emergence of variants of concern (VOCs) and of 16 vaccine breakthrough infection (BTI) cases infected with Gamma or Delta against the ancestral B.1 strain, the Gamma, Delta and Omicron BA.1 VOCs using live virus. We further determined antibody levels against the Nucleocapsid (N) and full Spike proteins, the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the Spike protein. Convalescent sera featured considerable variability in the neutralization of B.1 and in the cross-neutralization of different strains. Their neutralizing capacity moderately correlated with antibody levels against the Spike protein and the RBD. All but one convalescent serum failed to neutralize Omicron BA.1. Overall, convalescent sera from patients with moderate disease had higher antibody levels and displayed a higher neutralizing ability against all strains than patients with mild or severe forms of the disease. The sera from BTI cases fell into one of two categories: half the sera had a high neutralizing activity against the ancestral B.1 strain as well as against the infecting strain, while the other half had no or a very low neutralizing activity against all strains. Although antibody levels against the spike protein and the RBD were lower in BTI sera than in unvaccinated convalescent sera, most neutralizing sera also retained partial neutralizing activity against Omicron BA.1, suggestive of a better cross-neutralization and higher affinity of vaccine-elicited antibodies over virus-induced antibodies. Accordingly, the IC50: antibody level ratios were comparable for BTI and convalescent sera, but remained lower in the neutralizing convalescent sera from patients with moderate disease than in BTI sera. The neutralizing activity of BTI sera was strongly correlated with antibodies against the Spike protein and the RBD. Together, these findings highlight qualitative differences in antibody responses elicited by infection in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. They further indicate that breakthrough infection with a pre-Omicron variant boosts immunity and induces cross-neutralizing antibodies against different strains, including Omicron BA.1.     

Gastric Cancer: Advances in Carcinogenesis Research and New Therapeutic Strategies

Gastric cancer’s bad incidence, prognosis, cellular and molecular heterogeneity amongst others make this disease a major health issue worldwide. Understanding this affliction is a priority for proper patients’ management and for the development of efficient therapeutical strategies. This review gives an overview of major scientific advances, made during the past 5-years, to improve the comprehension of gastric adenocarcinoma. A focus was made on the different actors of gastric carcinogenesis, including, Helicobacter pylori cancer stem cells, tumour microenvironment and microbiota. New and recent potential biomarkers were assessed as well as emerging therapeutical strategies involving cancer stem cells targeting as well as immunotherapy. Finally, recent experimental models to study this highly complex disease were discussed, highlighting the importance of gastric cancer understanding in the hard-fought struggle against cancer relapse, metastasis and bad prognosis.     

New huprine derivatives functionalized at position 9 as highly potent acetylcholinesterase inhibitors

A series of 24 huprine derivatives diversely functionalized at position 9 have been synthesized and evaluated for their inhibitory activity against human recombinant acetylcholinesterase (AChE). These derivatives were prepared in one to five steps from huprine 1 bearing an ester function at position 9. Ten analogues ( 1 , 2 , 6 – 9 , 13 – 15 , and 23 ) are active in the low nanomolar range (IC₅₀ <5 nM ), very close to the parent compound huprine X. Compounds 2 , 6 , and 7 show a very good selectivity for AChE, with AChE inhibitory activities 700–1160‐fold higher than those for butyrylcholinesterase (BChE). The inhibitory potency of these compounds decreases with the steric bulk of the substituents at position 9. According to docking simulations, small substituents fit into the acyl‐binding pocket, whereas the larger ones stick out of the active site gorge of AChE. Determination of the kinetic parameters of three of the most potent huprines ( 2 , 6 , and 7 ) showed that most of the difference in K_D is accounted by a decrease in k_on, which is correlated to the increase of the substituent size. A first in vivo evaluation has been performed in mice for the most active compound 2 (IC₅₀=1.1 nM ) and showed a rather weak toxicity (LD₅₀=40 mg kg^?1) and an ability to cross the blood–brain barrier with doses above 15 mg kg^?1.