A combination of differential equations and convolution in understanding the spread of an epidemic

Nonlinear dynamical method of projecting the transmission of an epidemic is accurate if the input parameters and initial value variables are reliable. Here, such a model is proposed for predicting an epidemic. A method to supplement two variables and two parameters for this proposed model is demonstrated through a robust statistical approach. The method described here worked well in case of three continuous distributions. Model predictions could be lower estimates due to under-reporting of disease cases. Anad hoc procedure with a technical note is provided in the appendix An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual conference of the Indian Society for Mathematical Modelling & Computer Simulation, Bangalore, November 14–15, 2002     

Microstructural and textural characterization of a hot-rolled IF steel

The present paper reports the experimental results on the microstructural and textural characterization of a hot-rolled IF steel. The IF steel was hot-rolled in multiple passes in the austenitic field (1,070 °C) followed by air-cooling. SEM, TEM, and LOM were used to image the microstructure of the material. The global texture was determined by X-ray diffraction (XRD) technique. The mesotexture of selected regions was investigated by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD). Results show the presence of a diffuse (nearly random) and weak texture in the hot-band that consists of recrystallized polygonal grains and subgrains. The fraction of boundaries with misorientations comprised in the interval 2° ≤ ψ < 15° was found to be lower than 5%. It can be concluded that these low angle boundaries and the presence of subgrains can be associated to the existence of a few areas softened by recovery during or after hot rolling in austenitic field.     

Effect of hydrogen charging on dislocation behavior in Ni-Cr and Ni<Subscript>2</Subscript>Cr alloys

The effects of hydrogen charging on the dislocation behaviour in Ni-Cr binary alloys have been investigated by means of transmission electron microscope (TEM) observations using single-crystalline specimens. The deformation mode of Ni-Cr alloys in the absence of hydrogen is characterized by planar dislocations. However, hydrogen charging changed the dislocation configurations to promote curved dislocations, such as dislocation loops and dipoles. The hydrogen-affected dislocation configurations are enhanced with increasing Ni content and reducing Cr content. Weak-beam images show that the Shockley partials of the hydrogen-affected dislocations frequently constrict to make kinks and cross-slip, as if the dislocations were generated by a thermally activated process. The effect of hydrogen charging on superdislocations of a Ni₂Cr superstructure has been also investigated using an aged 70Ni-30Cr alloy. While the deformation mode in the Ni₂Cr superlattice is classified as five variants of superdislocation triplets and one variant of ordinary dislocations, the hydrogen charging has preferred the ordinary dislocations to the superdislocation triplets. The results suggest that the charged hydrogen changes the local plasticity to affect the deformation dynamics in Ni-Cr alloys, where the influence of hydrogen on the plasticity is sensitive to the Ni/Cr concentration and the symmetry of atomic arrangement.     

Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer fusion

The Kalman Filter is traditionally viewed as a prediction-correction filtering algorithm. In this work we show that it can be viewed as a Bayesian fusion algorithm and derive it using Bayesian arguments. We begin with an outline of Bayes theory, using it to discuss well-known quantities such as priors, likelihood and posteriors, and we provide the basic Bayesian fusion equation. We derive the Kalman Filter from this equation using a novel method to evaluate the Chapman-Kolmogorov prediction integral. We then use the theory to fuse data from multiple sensors. Vying with this approach is the Dempster-Shafer theory, which deals with measures of “belief”, and is based on the nonclassical idea of “mass” as opposed to probability. Although these two measures look very similar, there are some differences. We point them out through outlining the ideas of the Dempster-Shafer theory and presenting the basic Dempster-Shafer fusion equation. Finally we compare the two methods, and discuss the relative merits and demerits using an illustrative example.     

Web-based systems design: a study of contemporary practices and an explanatory framework based on “method-in-action”

This paper reports the findings of a detailed study of Web-based systems design (WBSD) practices in Ireland based on data collected over a 3-year period (2002–2005), the objectives of which were to (1) contribute towards a richer understanding of the current “real-world” context of WBSD by characterising the profile of a typical project (team size, timeframe, nature of requirements, etc.) and identifying the key challenges, constraints, and imperatives (i.e. “mediating factors”) faced by Web-based system designers, and (2) understand how those contextual parameters and mediating factors influence the activity of WBSD as regards the selection and enactment of whatever design practices are therefore engaged (i.e. the use of methods, procedures, etc.). Data was gathered through a survey which yielded 165 usable responses, and later through a series of semi-structured qualitative interviews. Using grounded theory, an explanatory conceptual framework is derived, based on an extension of the “method-in-action” model, the application of which to WBSD has not been previously investigated in depth. It is proposed that this framework of WBSD issues is valuable in a number of ways to educators, researchers, practitioners, and method engineers.     

定容气田开发规划概算法

基于物质平衡方程、产能方程和递减方程的结合,提出了定容气田开发规划的概算法.该法可用于预测地层压力、井底流动压力、井口流动压力和稳产年限.实际应用表明,本文提供的方法是实用有效的.     

应用均匀设计法研究安息香缩合工艺

利用均匀设计法通过SPSS10.0计算机软件研究了反应条件对安息香缩合的影响。从而获得优化的工艺条件，与正交试验相比，该法试验次数少。工作效率高，并且便于分析各种因素的影响。     

低乙烯含量抗冲聚丙烯的结构表征

采用二甲苯为溶剂，将不同乙烯含量（５％￣１５％质量）的抗冲聚丙烯用特定程序进行分级，将各样品分为室温下可溶于甲苯和不可溶于甲苯的两部分。使用＾１３Ｃ－ＮＭＲ方法和ＦＴ－ＩＲ方法对各组分进行表征，明确了乙烯链段在聚丙烯链上的分布，并在此基础上提出了产生这种链结构的聚合工艺的特点。