Developing Cost Response Models for Company-Level Cost Flow Forecasting of Project-Based Corporations

The difficulty in applying the standard curve (S-curve) and cost-schedule integration (CSI) techniques for company-level cost flow forecasting in a project-based industry is the prerequisite of forecasting future unknown individual projects and contract classifications. By analyzing cost flows at the company level through a pool of macroeconomic and internal financial data, this paper proposes an innovative approach to firm-specific model estimation. First, a series of data transformations introduce linear relationships between cost, macroeconomic, and internal financial variables. Second, multivariate regression analysis is employed for initial model building. Third, for the purposes of model restructuring, a subsequent application of Yule–Walker estimates and incomplete principal component analysis is used. This paper uses a sample of four project-based construction firms to demonstrate model performance. Using this methodology, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the forecasting models range from 0.27 to 0.60%. As such, the transformed cost, macroeconomic, internal financial data could strongly predict company-level cost flow forecasting. While converting the predicted cumulative cost data to periodic cost flows, the MAPE values were augmented, ranging from 7.04 to 17.55%, thus, requiring future research.     

中国石油石蜡基橡胶油系列产品在橡胶工业中的应用

中国石油研制生产的健康环保型石蜡基橡胶填充油系列产品，具有浅颜色、低芳烃、高饱和烃含量等特征，是中国石油的优质特色产品。该系列产品在国内橡胶行业中已得到广泛应用，其中，KP6025、KP6030石蜡基橡胶油通过了2001年中国石油润滑油公司的鉴定，该产品的研制成功，填补了这一领域的国内空白，产品性能优于国外同类产品，为国内橡胶企业的产品结构调整创造了条件，推动了我国橡胶产业向国际先进水平的发展，具有重大的经济和社会效益。主要综述了中国石油石蜡基橡胶油的应用与评价情况。     

井冈山水厂设计体会

阐述水厂设计中对水厂规模、水源地、净水厂位置及净水工艺的确定过程，根据原水的特点，通过分析对无阀滤池进行改良。     

机械化竖窑技术和节能特性简介

鞍钢耐火公司新建两座430m^3机械化石灰竖窑，与普通窑炉相比具有热耗低、石灰活性高、燃料适应性强、结构简单的特点。     

高校人事制度改革探讨

市场经济条件下高校人事制度改革是一项综合性的皋杂工作，涉及人事体制、人力资源配置、制度建设等多方面改革，本文阐述了改革的基本思路，并就如何实施进行了探讨。     

65MnTi盘条拉拔过程中出现断裂的原因分析

分析检验拉拔过程中发生断裂的65MnTi盘条的金相组织和断口形貌，得出结论；65MnTi金条发生断裂的原因是热轧后冷却速度过快，金相组织中出现了低温转变组织──马氏体组织；而理想的组织应为京氏体；并且最佳冷却速度为5℃／s左右。     

煤气吹扫时惰性气体抑爆用量的优选

运用惰性气体消防抑爆理论，采用数学积分法计算出吹扫煤气设施时抑爆所需最少惰性气体需要量．     

A MULTIAXIAL FATIGUE DAMAGE MODEL FOR ORTHOTROPIC MATERIALS UNDER PROPORTIONAL LOADING

A new multiaxial fatigue damage model for orthotropic materials is proposed based on the strain vector. Six material constants are included in the model. These material constants represent the dependence of fatigue resistance on material orientation, and they can be obtained by conducting strain-controlled uniaxial fatigue tests along the three principal orthotropic directions of an orthotropic material. The model can also be transformed in new coordinate systems to predict the fatigue lives of new material orientations. Biaxial low-cycle fatigue tests are conducted to verify the model. The prediction of the model agrees with the experimental results reasonably well.     

混酸PEG酯的合成及性能研究

用从大豆油脚水解制得的脂肪酸合成混酸聚乙二醇酯，通过测定酸值的方法确定了最佳反应时间为16h。与油酸聚乙二醇酯相比，混酸聚乙二醇酯具有更优良的乳化性、润湿性，可以替代油酸聚乙二醇酯用于纺织、农药和化妆品工业中。