Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Frequency by Using Hybrid Machine Learning Methods

In the present study, for the first time, a new framework is used by combining metaheuristic algorithms, decomposition and machine learning for flood frequency analysis under climate-change conditions and application of HadCM3 (A2 and B2 scenarios), CGCM3 (A2 and A1B scenarios) and CanESM2 (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) in global climate models (GCM). In the proposed framework, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and M5 Model tree are used for classification of precipitation (wet and dry days), whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is considered for training least square support vector machine (LSSVM), wavelet transform (WT) is used for decomposition of precipitation and temperature, LSSVM-WOA, LSSVM, K nearest neighbor (KNN) and artificial neural network (ANN) are performed for downscaling precipitation and temperature, and discharge is simulated under present period (1972–2000), near future (2020–2040) and far future (2070–2100). Log normal distribution is used for flood frequency analysis. Furthermore, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and fuzzy method are employed for uncertainty analysis. Karun3 Basin, in southwest of Iran, is considered as a case study. Results indicated that MARS performed better than M5 model tree. In downscaling, ANN and LSSVM_WOA slightly outperformed other machine learning algorithms. Results of simulating the discharge showed superiority of LSSVM_WOA_WT algorithm (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE)?=?0.911). Results of flood frequency analysis revealed that 200-year discharge decreases for all scenarios, except CanESM2 RCP2.6 scenario, in the near future. In the near and far future periods, it is obvious from ANOVA uncertainty analysis that hydrological models are one of the most important sources of uncertainty. Based on the fuzzy uncertainty analysis, HadCM3 model has lower uncertainty in higher return periods (up to 60% lower than other models in 1000-year return period).

     

The U.N. Convention on the Rights of the Child: lost in the clash of adverse opinions

Discusses The World Declaration on the Survival, Protection, and Development of Children (1989, 1990) and some of the possible reasons that the document has not been broadly publicized by professionals in mental health and human services in the US. The author believes that part of the problem is the ambiguity of the language in which some of the 54 articles of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989) are formulated. Two specific examples are given. The 1st example includes challenges by the conservative groups regrading the antifamily impact of the Convention, which to the author, seem unfounded. The 2nd concerns the Convention's preamble which the author fears may be interpreted by abortion rights advocates as an attempt to curb women's reproductive rights. It is concluded that it is necessary to rise about ideological clashes in order to gain a clear view of the future of children. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Application of small size cavitating venturi as flow controller and flow meter

The cavitating venturi is using to provide constant mass flow rate of liquid which is passing through a passage, independent of downstream pressure changes. The flow rate is a function of the upstream pressure, the throat area, the density and saturation pressure of the liquid. An experimental setup with capability of supplying water flow rate and constant upstream pressure was designed and manufactured. Three cavitating venturis with throat diameter of 5, 2.5, and 1 mm were designed and built to investigate the effect of venturi size on its mass flow rate. Three different sets of experiments were conducted to investigate the performance of the venturis. In the experiments, the mass flow rates were examined under different downstream and upstream pressure conditions and time varying downstream pressure. The results show for the ratio of downstream pressure to upstream pressure less than 0.8, the mass flow rate is constant and independent of the downstream pressure. Whenever the pressure ratio exceeds 0.8, the venturi acts like an orifice. This pressure ratio has been predicted analytically to highlight the affecting parameters, mainly the geometry of the venturi and viscous losses. It is found that the venturi size has no effect on its expecting function to keep mass flow rate constant. Also, it is shown that by applying a discharge coefficient and using only upstream pressure, the cavitating venturi can be used as a flowmeter with a high degree of accuracy in a wide range of mass flow rate.     

Crow Algorithm for Irrigation Management: A Case Study

Water Resources Management - This study employed a new evolutionary algorithm namely, the crow algorithm (CA), to optimize reservoir operation and minimize irrigation water deficit. Comprehensive...     

Intelligent multi-stakeholder environmental management

In any group decision making, stakeholders have different powers, proficiency and also experiences. These power weights are very difficult to obtain, because group managers avoid revealing the relative powers of the stakeholders to prevent more conflict among them. Therefore, in many studies, the different powers have not been well accounted and then equal power weights have been assigned to each stakeholder. This paper will show that considering the powers is necessary and then it introduces a new intelligent approach to obtain consensus based relative power weights. This method is based on the opinions of the stakeholders on the alternatives. A case study of watershed management is used to illustrate the application of the model to a real decision making problem. A suitable aggregation operator is also used to combine the goodness measures, considering the optimism/pessimism view of the group manager. Results indicate that obtaining the stakeholders’ weights and also considering the preferences of the group manager on the risk are essential parts for soft group decision making process, especially in the environmental management problems.     

Using an e-tongue based on voltammetric electrodes to discriminate among red wines aged in oak barrels or aged using alternative methods: Correlation between electrochemical signals and analytical parameters

An electronic tongue based on voltammetric sensors has been used to discriminate between red wines aged in oak barrels and red wines matured in steel tanks in contact with oak wood chips. The quality of wines has also been analyzed by means of conventional chemical methods. Principal component analysis has demonstrated that both methods allow discriminating wines according to the type of ageing. Moreover, partial least squares (PLS) regression has demonstrated that measurements carried out with the electronic system allow establishing prediction models that are capable to infer the methodology used to age wines. Good correlations have been found between the signals obtained with the electronic tongue and the chemical parameters. Moreover, the electrochemical signals have been successfully employed to estimate chemical parameters related to the polyphenolic content or the pH such as the tannins content. Both the calibration and the validation values obtained by using partial least squares (PLS2) regression method, indicate a good-quality model performance (slope near 1, off set near 0 and large correlation between sensors and categorized variables).     

Monitoring of evolution during red wine aging in oak barrels and alternative method by means of an electronic panel test

A combination of the data obtained by means of an e-nose (based on resistive MOX sensors), an e-tongue (based on voltammetric sensors) and an e-eye (based on CIE Lab coordinates) has been used to monitor the aging of a red wine. The changes in the chemical composition of wines that occur during maturing have permitted the system to discriminate among wine samples collected after one, three, six and ten months of aging. The discrimination capability of the electronic panel test obtained by means of Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) is even higher than the discrimination achieved by means of traditional chemical analysis.After ten months of aging it has been possible to discriminate between the wine aged in a French oak barrel and the same wine soaked with oak chips of the same origin and toasting level and treated with microoxygenation.     

Evaluation of Olive Oil Quality with Electrochemical Sensors and Biosensors: A Review

Electrochemical sensors, sensor arrays and biosensors, alongside chemometric instruments, have progressed remarkably of late, being used on a wide scale in the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of olive oil. Olive oil is a natural product of significant importance, since it is a rich source of bioactive compounds with nutritional and therapeutic properties, and its quality is important both for consumers and for distributors. This review aims at analysing the progress reported in the literature regarding the use of devices based on electrochemical (bio)sensors to evaluate the bioactive compounds in olive oil. The main advantages and limitations of these approaches on construction technique, analysed compounds, calculus models, as well as results obtained, are discussed in view of estimation of future progress related to achieving a portable, practical and rapid miniature device for analysing the quality of virgin olive oil (VOO) at different stages in the manufacturing process.     

Experimental study of a heavy fuel oil atomization by pressure-swirl injector in the application of entrained flow gasifier

The available SMD(Sauter mean diameter) correlations on pressure-swirl injectors predict droplet sizing very different from each other, especially for heavy fuels. Also there was a lack in the literature for comparing available correlations. So an experimental study was conducted on a heavy fuel oil(HFO) spray, Mazut 380. A pressure swirl injector was designed and fabricated. The experiments for Mazut at 40 °C and 80 °C were compared with the results for water, including spray half cone angle, breakup length and mean droplet diameter,at different injection pressures. Lower spray angle, higher breakup length and larger droplets were observed for lower injection pressures and higher liquid viscosity. SMD was about 75 μm for water and about 87 μm for Mazut at 80 °C. The results for droplet mean diameter were also compared with correlations from previous studies on pressure swirl atomizers. The SMD results show that for water spray, LISA method was in good agreement,also Babu and Ballester correlations were successful when high viscosity fluid was injected.     

First‐Principle Study of Structural,Electronic, and Magnetic Properties of Strontium Mono Ferrite Ceramic

In this research, structural, electronic, and magnetic properties of Strontium mono ferrite ceramic were studied. The calculations were performed by Full‐Potential‐Linearized Augmented Plane Wave method in the framework density functional theory with different approximations. The results suggest that among the four states of nonmagnetic, ferromagnetic, antiferromagnetic, and ferrimagnetic of SrFe₂O₄, ferrimagnetic is the most stable state. “Generalized Gradient” and “Local Spin Density” approximations were not an appropriate approach to calculate the band gap and magnetic moment of the compound. Therefore, other approximations such as GGA+U, LSDA+U, and modified Becke–Johnson were used. Band gap and lattice constants improved using these approximations. The Hubbard parameter was calculated (U_eff = 4.5 eV) by an ab initio method. Then, the electronic properties of SrFe₂O₄ such as band gap, exchange constant, and magneto crystalline anisotropy as well as the influence of pressure on these properties were investigated by using GGA+U approximation. Calculated magnetic moment for strontium mono ferrite is equal to 2.72 μ_B in the semiconductor state. Lattice constant results are in consistent with experimental studies. However, the amounts for bulk modulus, magnetic moment, and band gap have been not estimated experimentally.