Features of multiregional and intertemporal AGE modelling with GEMPACK

The past few years have seen increasing use of multiregional and intertemporal (that is, forward-looking) applied general equilibrium (AGE) models. These models share the characteristic of rapidly expanding dimensions. Because multilateral trade models increase in size with the square of the number of regions and intertemporal models increase in proportion to the number of time periods, they can be very difficult to solve purely because of their size. This paper considers three recent models of these kinds, namely, GTAP, the Global Trade Analysis Project's multiregional model of the world; MRES, a multiregional forecasting model of Australia; and ORANI-INT, an intertemporal model of the Australian economy. Each of these has been implemented using the GEMPACK suite of general-purpose economic modelling software. In this paper we discuss features of GEMPACK which are especially relevant for multiregional and/or intertemporal models. These include an automatic facility to condense models to a manageable size; separation of equations, data, and closure/shocks; automatic creation of updated (that is, post-simulation) data files; and a solver that is well suited to intertemporal models with substantial elements of forward-looking behaviour. Each feature is illustrated via references to one or more of the three models mentioned above.     

In-Line Ozone Dissolution Demonstration-Scale Evaluation

A demonstration-scale, in-line ozone dissolution and contacting system was constructed and operated for the Long Beach Water Department and the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. The in-line process was assessed to determine its suitability for ozone oxidation of color in local groundwater. Results indicate that ozone utilization for color oxidation with an in-line system is more efficient than with a conventional bubble contactor.     

The association of herd milk production and management with a return-over-feed index in Ontario dairy herds

Associations of herd milk production and management variables to a return-over-feed (ROF) herd profit index were examined among 95 dairy farms. The ROF index is derived from 2 important determinants of profit on dairy farms: milk income and feed cost. All producers were participants in the Dairy Herd Improvement (DHI) ROF program in Ontario, Canada during 2002. Nutrition, housing, health, and other management data were collected through a phone survey of herd managers. Herd milk production, milk component percentages, and somatic cell count data were obtained from the Ontario DHI database. The linear regression model accounting for significant variation in ROF with highest R2 (0.66) included standardized milk production, milk protein percentage, milk fat percentage, and use of monensin in lactating cow rations. A 1-kg increase in standardized milk production (kg/d per cow) or a 0.1 percentage unit increase in milk protein was associated with $0.35/d per cow or $0.26/d per cow increase, respectively, in the ROF of the dairy herd. However, a 0.1 percentage unit increase in milk fat was associated with a $0.10/d per cow decrease in ROF, probably because of a negative association of milk fat with milk yield. Use of monensin in lactating cow rations was associated with a $0.39/d per cow increase in ROF. In a separate model (R2 = 0.27) that examined management factors independent of production variables, herds using 3 times daily milking had a $1.25/d per cow higher ROF vs. herds using twice daily, whereas use of an Escherichia coli mastitis vaccine was associated with $0.59/d per cow higher ROF. Production-related variables accounted for more variation in the ROF index than management variables, and the latter, e.g., use of monensin, only marginally increased R2 of production-based regression models.     

Adaptation of performance during a week of simulated night work

This study aimed to provide a comparative index of the performance impairment associated with the fatigue levels frequently experienced in workplaces that require night work. To do this, we equated fatigue-related impairment with the impairment resulting from varying levels of alcohol intoxication. Fifteen young individuals participated in two counterbalanced conditions which required them to (1). 'work' seven consecutive 8-h night shifts, and (2). consume an alcoholic beverage at hourly intervals until their blood alcohol concentration (BAC) reached 0.10%. In each condition, performance was measured at hourly intervals using a 10-min psychomotor vigilance task (PVT). Analysis indicated that as BAC increased, performance impairment significantly increased. Similarly, response times significantly increased during the first six simulated night-shifts, and lapse frequency significantly increased during the first two shifts. Equating the two conditions indicated that the first simulated night shift was associated with the greatest degree of performance impairment. In general, the impairment at the end of this shift was greater than that observed at a BAC of 0.10%. During the second and third simulated night shifts, the performance impairment was less than on the first night, but greater than that observed at a BAC of 0.05%. For the final four nights, the performance decrements generally did not exceed those observed at a BAC of 0.05%. This suggests that during a week of consecutive night shifts, adaptation of performance occurs.     

Peripartum serum vitamin E, retinol, and beta-carotene in dairy cattle and their associations with disease

Peripartum decreases in serum concentrations of vitamins A and E may contribute to impaired immune function in dairy cows. The objectives of this study were to describe peripartum serum concentrations of alpha-tocopherol, beta-carotene, and retinol and their associations with disease risk. On 20 farms over 1 yr, blood samples were collected weekly from 1057 cows from 1 wk before expected calving until 1 wk postpartum. Serum concentrations of alpha-tocopherol, beta-carotene, and retinol, as well as several biochemical variables were measured. Their associations with the risk of retained placenta or clinical mastitis were modeled separately with logistic regression, and the factors associated with the concentration of each vitamin were modelled with mixed linear regression. Differences in vitamin concentrations between 2 batches of sera analyzed 6 mo apart required stratification of statistical analyses. Accounting for the effects of parity, season, and twins, an increase in alpha-tocopherol of 1 microg/mL in the last week prepartum reduced the risk of retained placenta by 20%, whereas serum nonesterified fatty acid concentration > or = 0.5 mEq/L tended to increase risk of retained placenta by 80%. In the last week prepartum, a 100 ng/mL increase in serum retinol was associated with a 60% decrease in the risk of early lactation clinical mastitis. There were significant positive associations of peripartum serum concentrations among each of alpha-tocopherol, beta-carotene, and retinol.     

Speech-Based Real-Time Subtitling Services

Recent advances in technology have led to the availability of powerful speech recognizers at low cost and to the possibility of using speech interaction in a variety of new and exciting practical applications. The purpose of this research was to investigate and develop the use of speech recognition in live television subtitling. This paper describes how the SpeakTitle project met the challenges of real time speech recognition and live subtitling through the development of a customisable speaker interface and use of Topics for specific subject domains. In the prototype system (described in Hewitt et al., 2000; Bateman et al., 2001) output from the speech recognition system (the IBM ViaVoice® engine) is passed in to a custom-built editor from where it can be corrected and passed on to an existing subtitling system. The system was developed to the extent that it was acceptable for the production of subtitles for live television broadcasts and it has been adopted by three subtitle production facilities in the UK.The evolution of the product and the experiences of users in developing the system in a live subtitling environment are considered, and the system is analysed against industry standards. Ease-of-use and accuracy are also discussed and further research areas are identified.     

Overview of 1-year follow-up outcomes in the Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Study (DATOS).

The Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Study (DATOS) collected 1-year follow-up outcomes for 2,966 clients in outpatient methadone (OMT), long-term residential (LTR), outpatient drug-free (ODF), and short-term inpatient (STI) programs in 1991–1993. LTR, STI, and ODF clients reported 50% less weekly or daily cocaine use in the follow-up year than in the preadmission year. Reductions were greater (p?     

Treating Life-Impairing Problems Beyond PTSD: Reply to Cahill, Zoellner, Feeny, and Riggs (2004).

This reply to the comment by Cahill, Riggs, Zoellner, and Feeny (2004; see record 2004-95166-018) on the article by Cloitre, Koenen, Cohen, and Han (2002; see record 2002-18226-001) reiterates that an important goal of treatment research among chronically traumatized populations is to address problems that impair life functioning, including not only posttraumatic stress disorder but also emotion regulation difficulties and interpersonal problems. The need for further research on symptom exacerbation and drop-out rates in exposure-based treatment for child abuse survivors is discussed. An ongoing follow-up study is described, which is designed to assess the relative utility of STAIR and modified PE individually versus their combination in meeting "good outcome" standards as defined above. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)