Optimization–Simulation Model for Planning Supply Transport to Large Infrastructure Public Works Located in Congested Urban Areas

This article proposes an optimization–simulation model for planning the transport of supplies to large public infrastructure works located in congested urban areas. The purpose is to minimize their impact on the environment and on private transportation users on the local road network. To achieve this goal, the authors propose and solve an optimization problem for minimizing the total system cost made up of operating costs for various alternatives for taking supplies to the worksite and the costs supported by private vehicle users as a result of increased congestion due to the movement of heavy goods vehicles transporting material to the worksite. The proposed optimization problem is a bi-level Math Program model. The upper level defines the total cost of the system, which is minimized taking into account environmental constraints on atmospheric and noise pollution. The lower level defines the optimization problem representing the private transportation user behavior, assuming they choose the route that minimizes their total individual journey costs. Given the special characteristics of the problem, a heuristic algorithm is proposed for finding optimum solutions. Both the model developed and the specific solution algorithm are applied to the real case of building a new port at Laredo (Northern Spain). A series of interesting conclusions are obtained from the corresponding sensitivity analysis.     

Convertibility of Function Points into COSMIC Function Points: A study using Piecewise Linear Regression

Background

COSMIC Function Points and traditional Function Points (i.e., IFPUG Function Points and more recent variation of Function Points, such as NESMA and FISMA) are probably the best known and most widely used Functional Size Measurement methods. The relationship between the two kinds of Function Points still needs to be investigated. If traditional Function Points could be accurately converted into COSMIC Function Points and vice versa, then, by measuring one kind of Function Points, one would be able to obtain the other kind of Function Points, and one might measure one or the other kind interchangeably. Several studies have been performed to evaluate whether a correlation or a conversion function between the two measures exists. Specifically, it has been suggested that the relationship between traditional Function Points and COSMIC Function Points may not be linear, i.e., the value of COSMIC Function Points seems to increase more than proportionally to an increase of traditional Function Points.

Objective

This paper aims at verifying this hypothesis using available datasets that collect both FP and CFP size measures.

Method

Rigorous statistical analysis techniques are used, specifically Piecewise Linear Regression, whose applicability conditions are systematically checked. The Piecewise Linear Regression curve is a series of interconnected segments. In this paper, we focused on Piecewise Linear Regression curves composed of two segments. We also used Linear and Parabolic Regressions, to check if and to what extent Piecewise Linear Regression may provide an advantage over other regression techniques. We used two categories of regression techniques: Ordinary Least Squares regression is based on the usual minimization of the sum of squares of the residuals, or, equivalently, on the minimization of the average squared residual; Least Median of Squares regression is a robust regression technique that is based on the minimization of the median squared residual. Using a robust regression technique helps filter out the excessive influence of outliers.

Results

It appears that the analysis of the relationship between traditional Function Points and COSMIC Function Points based on the aforementioned data analysis techniques yields valid significant models. However, different results for the various available datasets are achieved. In practice, we obtained statistically valid linear, piecewise linear, and non-linear conversion formulas for several datasets. In general, none of these is better than the others in a statistically significant manner.

Conclusions

Practitioners interested in the conversion of FP measures into CFP (or vice versa) cannot just pick a conversion model and be sure that it will yield the best results. All the regression models we tested provide good results with some datasets. In practice, all the models described in the paper - in particular, both linear and non-linear ones - should be evaluated in order to identify the ones that are best suited for the specific dataset at hand.     

Forecasting peak air pollution levels using NARX models

Air pollution has a negative impact on human health. For this reason, it is important to correctly forecast over-threshold events to give timely warnings to the population. Nonlinear models of the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) class have been extensively used to forecast air pollution time series, mainly using artificial neural networks (NNs) to model the nonlinearities. This work discusses the possible advantages of using polynomial NARX instead, in combination with suitable model structure selection methods. Furthermore, a suitably weighted mean square error (MSE) (one-step-ahead prediction) cost function is used in the identification/learning process to enhance the model performance in peak estimation, which is the final purpose of this application. The proposed approach is applied to ground-level ozone concentration time series. An extended simulation analysis is provided to compare the two classes of models on a selected case study (Milan metropolitan area) and to investigate the effect of different weighting functions in the identification performance index. Results show that polynomial NARX are able to correctly reconstruct ozone concentrations, with performances similar to NN-based NARX models, but providing additional information, as, e.g., the best set of regressors to describe the studied phenomena. The simulation analysis also demonstrates the potential benefits of using the weighted cost function, especially in increasing the reliability in peak estimation.     

Pairwise Registration by Local Orientation Cues

Inspired by recent work on robust and fast computation of 3D Local Reference Frames (LRFs), we propose a novel pipeline for coarse registration of 3D point clouds. Key to the method are: (i) the observation that any two corresponding points endowed with an LRF provide a hypothesis on the rigid motion between two views, (ii) the intuition that feature points can be matched based solely on cues directly derived from the computation of the LRF, (iii) a feature detection approach relying on a saliency criterion which captures the ability to establish an LRF repeatably. Unlike related work in literature, we also propose a comprehensive experimental evaluation based on diverse kinds of data (such as those acquired by laser scanners, Kinect and stereo cameras) as well as on quantitative comparison with respect to other methods. We also address the issue of setting the many parameters that characterize coarse registration pipelines fairly and realistically. The experimental evaluation vouches that our method can handle effectively data acquired by different sensors and is remarkably fast.     

Feedforward networks in financial predictions: the future that modifies the present

The main goal of this paper is to show how relatively minor modifications of well-known algorithms (in particular, back propagation) can dramatically increase the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) for time series prediction. We denote our proposed sets of modifications as the 'self-momentum', 'Freud' and 'Jung' rules. In our opinion, they provide an example of an alternative approach to the design of learning strategies for ANNs, one that focuses on basic mathematical conceptualization rather than on formalism and demonstration. The complexity of actual prediction problems makes it necessary to experiment with modelling possibilities whose inherent mathematical properties are often not well understood yet. The problem of time series prediction in stock markets is a case in point. It is well known that asset price dynamics in financial markets are difficult to trace, let alone to predict with an operationally interesting degree of accuracy. We therefore take financial prediction as a meaningful test bed for the validation of our techniques. We discuss in some detail both the theoretical underpinnings of the technique and our case study about financial prediction, finding encouraging evidence that supports the theoretical and operational viability of our new ANN specifications. Ours is clearly only a preliminary step. Further developments of ANN architectures with more and more sophisticated 'learning to learn' characteristics are now under study and test.     

Development and applications of surface-activated chemical ionization

This review regards the recently developed ionization source named surface-activated chemical ionization (SACI) that employs an interaction with a surface placed at low voltage for the activation of the ionization of sample molecules to increase the sensitivity in the analysis of various compounds of biological and clinical interest. These results are due to the strong chemical noise decrease and the increase of ionization efficiency. This ionization source has been employed for the analysis of various compounds of different molecular mass and polarity (addicted and pharmaceutical drugs, amino acids, steroids, peptides, and proteins). The SACI development theoretical mechanism, benefits, disadvantages, applications, and future developments are reported and discussed.     

Estimation of predictive accuracy in survival analysis using R and S-PLUS

When the purpose of a survival regression model is to predict future outcomes, the predictive accuracy of the model needs to be evaluated before practical application. Various measures of predictive accuracy have been proposed for survival data, none of which has been adopted as a standard, and their inclusion in statistical software is disregarded. We developed the surev library for R and S-PLUS, which includes functions for evaluating the predictive accuracy measures proposed by Schemper and Henderson. The library evaluates the predictive accuracy of parametric regression models and of Cox models. The predictive accuracy of the Cox model can be obtained also when time-dependent covariates are included because of non-proportional hazards or when using Bayesian model averaging. The use of the library is illustrated with examples based on a real data set.     

Design and control of an IPMC wormlike robot.

This paper presents an innovative wormlike robot controlled by cellular neural networks (CNNs) and made of an ionic polymer-metal composite (IPMC) self-actuated skeleton. The IPMC actuators, from which it is made of, are new materials that behave similarly to biological muscles. The idea that inspired the work is the possibility of using IPMCs to design autonomous moving structures. CNNs have already demonstrated their powerfulness as new structures for bio-inspired locomotion generation and control. The control scheme for the proposed IPMC moving structure is based on CNNs. The wormlike robot is totally made of IPMCs, and each actuator has to carry its own weight. All the actuators are connected together without using any other additional part, thereby constituting the robot structure itself. Worm locomotion is performed by bending the actuators sequentially from "tail" to "head," imitating the traveling wave observed in real-world undulatory locomotion. The activation signals are generated by a CNN. In the authors' opinion, the proposed strategy represents a promising solution in the field of autonomous and light structures that are capable of reconfiguring and moving in line with spatial-temporal dynamics generated by CNNs.     

Identification of the female-produced sex pheromone of the scarab beetle,Hoplia equina

Hoplia equina LeConte (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Melolonthinae) is a beetle pest of cranberry beds in Massachusetts. Larvae feed on the roots of the cranberry plant, reducing yield as well as vine density. The female sex pheromone was identified as 2-tetradecanone. There were eight compounds found in the airborne volatiles collected from females that elicited antennal responses from males. Of the eight compounds tested (nonanal, decanal, dodecanal, 2-dodecanone, 2-tridecanone, 2-tetradecanone, 2-pentadecanone, and 2-hexadecanone), 2-tetradecanone was the only one that attracted male beetles in the field. Combining any of the other seven antennally active compounds with 2-tetradecanone did not increase male capture.     

An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Changing Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Profitability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Catchment

Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ET_N), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ET_N may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy.