The sensitivity of estimates of regression to the mean

Estimations of the effectiveness of remedial treatments in road safety analysis are frequently bedevilled by the problem of regression to the mean (RTM). The number of accidents x observed at a site in the “before” period is a “noisy” quantity: x is Poisson distributed about an (unknown) true mean m for that site, so that x = m + e. Sites selected for treatment tend to have a positive random error component e, which will on average be zero in the “after” period, even if no treatment is applied.Methods for estimating RTM usually require some assumption about the underlying (prior) between-site distribution of the true means f₀(m): for example, in the empirical Bayes method, a gamma distribution is assumed. The paper considers the impact of different assumptions for this distribution and, indeed, whether any distributional form needs to be assumed. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, a variety of distributional forms are assumed for f₀(m) and applied to each of a number of real data sets, including that from a major study on the effectiveness of speed cameras. It is shown that, in some cases, the size of the estimated RTM effect can be quite sensitive to the choice of distribution.     

Numerical modelling of wind flow over a complex topography

Numerical modelling of wind flow over complex dune topography is an ambitious prospect. There is an increasing need to understand wind flow over complex topography for land planning purposes to enable prediction of sediment transport at a particular site. New surveying techniques permit the rapid development of digital terrain models, however a stumbling block is the ability of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to emulate the wind flow over such a landscape. To overcome these difficulties, it is important to establish the parameters within which such simulations can operate. This paper details an initial two-dimensional numerical model developed in order to test various modelling assumptions against experimental field wind data. Mason Bay, Stewart Island, New Zealand was chosen as an undisturbed but accessible experimental site with a prevalent on-shore wind perpendicular to a simple foredune and a complex down-wind parabolic dune system. A complex topographical two-dimensional model with vegetation represented as a roughness was compared against field data along a transect dissecting a dune system.This paper establishes that:

* Replicating the roughness patterns at the surface is important

* The inlet profile should be duplicated with care

* Modelling only a portion of the domain can have an effect on the flow patterns due to outflow effects

* There is a modelling decision to be made between the complexity of the topography and the sophistication of the turbulence model and degree to which vegetation and sand transportation are modelled.

The long-term aim is to instil confidence in numerical techniques so that such technology can be used for predictive purposes.     

Book reviews

Australian Environmental Policy 2: Studies in Decline and Devolution

Ken Walker and Kate Crowley (eds) UNSW Press, Sydney, 1999 ISBN 0868406732 (paperback) 323 pp.; bibliography and index RRP $35.00

Beyond Meltdown: The Global Battle for Sustained Growth.

Peter Brain. Scribe, Melbourne, 1999 ISBN 0908011369 (paperback) 273 pp.; bibliography and index RRP $26.95

Cities Back from the Edge: New Life for Downtown

Roberta Brandes Gratz with Norman Mintz John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1998 ISBN 0471144177 (hardback) 347 pp.; index RRP $59.95

Evaluation in Planning: Facing the Challenge of Complexity

Nathaniel Lichfield, Angela Barbanente, Dino Bori, Abdul Khakee and Anna. Prat (eds). Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1998. ISBN 0792351770 (hardback). 383 pp.; index. RRP $254.00

Gritty Cities: Images of the Urban

Lyaranette Finch and Chris McConville (eds). Pluto, Sydney, 1999. ISBN 1864030631 (paperback). 250 pp.; bibliography and index. RRP $24.95

Setting the Stage for Systainability: A Citizen's Handbook

Chris Maser, Russ Beaton and Kevin Smith Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, 1998 ISBN 1574441876 (hardback) 269 pp.; index RRP $47.50

The Australian Metropolis: A Planning History

Stephen Hamnett and Robert Freestone (eds) Allen & Unwin, Sydney, 1999 ISBN 1865080535 (paperback) 229 pp.; index RRP $35.00     

用FPGA设计引擎安全监测仪实现创业

并非只有宇宙才诞生于大爆炸。目前硅谷最火的汽车电子新创企业PLX Devices也诞生于创始人的引擎爆炸。PLX最新的产品是一款能够监测汽油使用状况，鼓励节油驾驶的插入式器件。它源自公司28岁的首席执行官Paul Lowchareonkul在驾车与奔驰赛车跑坏了引擎后发明的一个空气燃油比测量仪。这两款器件均采用了赛灵思FPGA平台。     

Effect of soluble fibre (guar gum and carboxymethylcellulose) addition on technological, sensory and structural properties of durum wheat spaghetti

Incorporation in pasta of either of two soluble fibres, carboxymethylcellulose sodium salt (CMC) and guar gum (GG), was found to significantly reduce the rate of invitro starch digestion. The amount of reducing sugars produced over 300 min was reduced by 18% at 1.5% CMC incorporation and 24% at 20% GG incorporation. Negative effects on sensory and technological properties were seen at the high levels of GG needed to reduce the rate of in vitro digestion, and a ‘matty’ layer covering the surfaces of starch granules was observed by scanning electron microscopy and confocal scanning laser microscopy. By contrast, levels of CMC incorporation giving large reductions in in vitro digestion had no negative effects on pasta properties. No significant alteration in pasta structure on CMC incorporation was observed by microscopy. The large difference in the amounts of soluble fibre required to bring about equivalent reductions in digestion rate suggests that different mechanisms may be involved in the two cases.     

THE PAPER ENIGMA MACHINE

The Enigma Machine is a complex electromechanical device used by the Germans in World War II to achieve what they thought was complete communications security. While the original machine weighed over 20?lbs, the central mechanics of the machine can be simulated manually by manipulating strips of paper. A Paper Enigma is presented that can be cut out of a single sheet of paper. The resulting simulator is compatible with the electromechanical original in that messages can be encoded on one, and decoded on the other. Copies of The Paper Enigma can be downloaded from http://mckoss.com/crypto/enigma.htm.     

ISSN exercise & sport nutrition review: research & recommendations

Sports nutrition is a constantly evolving field with hundreds of research papers published annually. For this reason, keeping up to date with the literature is often difficult. This paper is a five year update of the sports nutrition review article published as the lead paper to launch the JISSN in 2004 and presents a well-referenced overview of the current state of the science related to how to optimize training and athletic performance through nutrition. More specifically, this paper provides an overview of: 1.) The definitional category of ergogenic aids and dietary supplements; 2.) How dietary supplements are legally regulated; 3.) How to evaluate the scientific merit of nutritional supplements; 4.) General nutritional strategies to optimize performance and enhance recovery; and, 5.) An overview of our current understanding of the ergogenic value of nutrition and dietary supplementation in regards to weight gain, weight loss, and performance enhancement. Our hope is that ISSN members and individuals interested in sports nutrition find this review useful in their daily practice and consultation with their clients.     

Designing architectured materials

Architectured or “hybrid” materials are combinations of two or more materials or of materials and space, configured in such a way as to have attributes not offered by any one material alone. This paper describes the rationale for creating architectured materials and criteria for deciding which combinations and configurations show the most promise.