Modelling the long term water yield impact of wildfire and other forest disturbance in Eucalypt forests

Disturbance of forested catchments by fire, logging, or other natural or human induced events that alter the evapotranspiration regime may be a substantial threat to domestic, environmental and industrial water supplies. This paper describes the physically-based modelling of the long term changes in water yield from two wildfire affected catchments in north-eastern Victoria, Australia, and of fire and climate change scenarios in Melbourne's principal water supply catchment. The effect of scale, data availability and quality, and of forest species parameterisation are explored. The modelling demonstrates the importance of precipitation inputs, with Nash and Sutcliffe Coefficients of Efficiency of predicted versus observed monthly flows increasing from 0.5 to 0.8 with a higher density of rainfall stations, and where forest types are well parameterised. Total predicted flow volumes for the calibrations were within 1% of the observed for the Mitta Mitta River catchment and <4% for the Thomson River, but almost ?10% for the less well parameterised Tambo River. Despite the issues of data availability simulations demonstrated the potential for significant impacts to water supply in SE Australia from wildfire and climate change. For example, for the catchments modelled the moderate climate change impact on water yield was more pronounced than the worst fire scenario. Both modelled cases resulted in long term water yield declines exceeding 20%, with the climate change impact nearing 30%. A simulation using observed data for the first four post-fire years at the Mitta Mitta River catchment showed Macaque was able to accurately predict total flow.     

From h to p efficiently: Strategy selection for operator evaluation on hexahedral and tetrahedral elements

A spectral/hp element discretisation permits both geometric flexibility and beneficial convergence properties to be attained simultaneously. The choice of elemental polynomial order has a profound effect on the efficiency of different implementation strategies with their performance varying substantially for low and high order spectral/hp discretisations. We examine how careful selection of the strategy minimises computational cost across a range of polynomial orders in three dimensions and compare how different operators, and the choice of element shape, lead to different break-even points between the implementations. In three dimensions, higher expansion orders quickly lead to a large increase in the number of element-interior modes, particularly in hexahedral elements. For a typical boundary–interior modal decomposition, this can rapidly lead to a poor performance from a global approach, while a sum-factorisation technique, exploiting the tensor-product structure of elemental expansions, leads to better performance. Furthermore, increased memory requirements may cause an implementation to show poor runtime performance on a given system, even if the strict operation count is minimal, due to detrimental caching effects and other machine-dependent factors.     

Spectral/hp element methods:Recent developments,applications, and perspectives

The spectral/hp element method combines the geometric flexibility of the classical h-type finite element technique with the desirable numerical properties of spectral methods, employing high-degree piecewise polynomial basis functions on coarse finite element-type meshes. The spatial approximation is based upon orthogonal polynomials, such as Legendre or Chebychev polynomials,modified to accommodate a C^0-continuous expansion. Computationally and theoretically, by increasing the polynomial order p,high-precision solutions and fast convergence can be obtained and, in particular, under certain regularity assumptions an exponential reduction in approximation error between numerical and exact solutions can be achieved. This method has now been applied in many simulation studies of both fundamental and practical engineering flows. This paper briefly describes the formulation of the spectral/hp element method and provides an overview of its application to computational fluid dynamics. In particular, it focuses on the use of the spectral/hp element method in transitional flows and ocean engineering. Finally, some of the major challenges to be overcome in order to use the spectral/hp element method in more complex science and engineering applications are discussed.     

One-dimensional modelling of a vascular network in space-time variables

In this paper a one-dimensional model of a vascular network based on space-time variables is investigated. Although the one-dimensional system has been more widely studied using a space-frequency decomposition, the space-time formulation offers a more direct physical interpretation of the dynamics of the system. The objective of the paper is to highlight how the space-time representation of the linear and nonlinear one-dimensional system can be theoretically and numerically modelled. In deriving the governing equations from first principles, the assumptions involved in constructing the system in terms of area-mass flux (A,Q), area-velocity (A,u), pressure-velocity (p,u) and pressure-mass flux(p,Q) variables are discussed. For the nonlinear hyperbolic system expressed in terms of the (A,u) variables the extension of the single-vessel model to a network of vessels is achieved using a characteristic decomposition combined with conservation of mass and total pressure. The more widely studied linearised system is also discussed where conservation of static pressure, instead of total pressure, is enforced in the extension to a network. Consideration of the linearised system also allows for the derivation of a reflection coefficient analogous to the approach adopted in acoustics and surface waves. The derivation of the fundamental equations in conservative and characteristic variables provides the basic information for many numerical approaches. In the current work the linear and nonlinear systems have been solved using a spectral/hp element spatial discretisation with a discontinuous Galerkin formulation and a second-order Adams-Bashforth time-integration scheme. The numerical scheme is then applied to a model arterial network of the human vascular system previously studied by Wang and Parker (To appear in J. Biomech. (2004)). Using this numerical model the role of nonlinearity is also considered by comparison of the linearised and nonlinearised results. Similar to previous work only secondary contributions are observed from the nonlinear effects under physiological conditions in the systemic system. Finally, the effect of the reflection coefficient on reversal of the flow waveform in the parent vessel of a bifurcation is considered for a system with a low terminal resistance as observed in vessels such as the umbilical arteries.     

Motor and sensory fibres of neck muscle nerves in the cat

The numbers and sizes of nerve fibres to the dorsal neck muscles, splenius, complexus and biventer cervicis have been examined in the cat. The total number of fibres is unusually high as is the content of sensory fibres (estimated as the loss of fibres after ganglionectomy). The fibre spectra of these sensory nerves has an unusually large number of fibres in the group II and III range (3-7 mum) and differs markedly in this way from other muscle nerves. The motor fibres contain a high proportion (64-99%) in the gamma fibre size range. Large motor fibres are absent in the nerves to biventer cervicis (a slow muscle). The ratio of unmyelinated to myelinated fibres in neck muscle nerves is similar to that in hind legs at about 2.5:1.     

Insulin, glucagon, and somatostatin in normal physiology and diabetes mellitus

Studies are reviewed in which the roles of insulin and glucagon in normal physiology and in diabetes are examined. In normal man, glucose ingestion is accompanied by a rise in insulin and fall in glucagon and is primarily disposed of in the liver, an organ sensitive to both hormones. However, infusions of glucagon in physiologic amounts indicate that insulin secretion rather than glucagon inhibition is the primary factor determining glucose disposal. Furthermore, minor elevations in blood glucose elicit increments in insulin concentration and inhibition of hepatic glucose output in the absence of changes in plasma glucagon. The primary physiologic role of glucagon is to prevent the hypoglycemia that would otherwise accompany noncarbohydrate (protein)-mediated insulin secretion. In diabetic as well as normal patients the stimulatory effect of glucagon on hepatic glucose production is evanescent. Increases in glucagon or changes in the I/G ratio can bring about deterioration in glucose tolerance or in diabetic control only so long as absolute insulin deficiency is present or pharmacologic elevations in glucagon are produced. After somatostatin administration, prolonged hypoinsulinemia in normal subjects is observed to result in fasting hyperglycemia in the absence of basal glucagon secretion. In diabetic patients the improvement in postprandial hyperglycemia produced by somatostatin can be accounted for by its inhibitory action on carbohydrate absorption in the gastrointestinal tract. It is concluded that insulin deficiency is the primary pathophysiologic disturbance in diabetes. While glocagon may worsen the consequences of insulin lack, it is neither sufficient nor necessary for the development of diabetes.     

Effect of caffeine on the recognition of and responses to hypoglycemia in humans

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether two effects of acute caffeine ingestion--decrease in cerebral blood flow and increase in brain glucose use--alter the recognition of and physiologic responses to hypoglycemia. DESIGN: On two occasions, a hyperinsulinemic glucose clamp technique (2 mU/kg body weight per minute) was used to maintain plasma glucose at 5 mmol/L for 90 minutes, followed by 60 minutes at 3.8 mmol/L, and then 2.8 mmol/L. After 30 minutes at 5 mmol/L, participants consumed, using a randomized, double-blind design, caffeine-free cola with or without caffeine (400 mg) added. SETTING: Yale Clinical Research Center. PARTICIPANTS: Eight healthy, nonobese volunteers (5 men; age range, 20 to 33 years). MEASUREMENTS: Middle cerebral artery velocity (V MCA), counter-regulatory hormone levels, hypoglycemic symptoms, and cognitive function (P300 evoked potentials). RESULTS: Caffeine caused an immediate and sustained 23% decrease in VMCA from 64 to 49 cm/s (point estimate of difference, +15 cm/s [95% CI, 10 to 21 cm/s], P < 0.001). At a glucose level of 3.8 mmol/L, only the participants given caffeine had warning symptoms and "felt hypoglycemic." Moreover, the level of epinephrine was 118% ([CI of point difference, 76% to 158%] [CI, P < 0.001]) higher after caffeine consumption compared with placebo. Similarly, levels of norepinephrine (41% [CI, 26% to 60%], P < 0.002), cortisol (65% [CI, 26% to 78%], P < 0.008), and growth hormone (60% [CI, 16% to 143%], P < 0.05) were higher after caffeine consumption compared with placebo. At 2.8 mmol/L, epinephrine (40% [point estimate of the percentage difference], P < 0.05), norepinephrine (27%, P < 0.05), and cortisol (24%, P < 0.05) levels were higher, participants were more aware (P < 0.02) of hypoglycemia, and P300 latency was prolonged in the group that consumed caffeine (7.2%, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Acute ingestion of caffeine is associated with sympathoadrenal activation and awareness of hypoglycemia at a glucose level not usually considered hypoglycemic. Our data suggest that individuals who ingest moderate amounts of caffeine may develop hypoglycemic symptoms if plasma glucose levels fall into the "low-normal" range, as might occur in the late postprandial period after ingestion of a large carbohydrate load.     

Collaborative training with a more experienced partner: remediating low pretraining self-efficacy in complex skill acquisition

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the effectiveness of collaborative training for individuals with low pretraining self-efficacy versus individuals with high pretraining self-efficacy regarding the acquisition of a complex skill that involved strong cognitive and psychomotor demands. BACKGROUND: Despite support for collaborative learning from the educational literature and the similarities between collaborative learning and interventions designed to remediate low self-efficacy, no research has addressed how self-efficacy and collaborative learning interact in contexts concerning complex skills and human-machine interactions. METHOD: One hundred fifty-five young male adults trained either individually or collaboratively with a more experienced partner on a complex computer task that simulated the demands of a dynamic aviation environment. Participants also completed a task-specific measure of self-efficacy before, during, and after training. RESULTS: Collaborative training enhanced skill acquisition significantly more for individuals with low pretraining self-efficacy than for individuals with high pretraining self-efficacy. However, collaborative training did not bring the skill acquisition levels of those persons with low pretraining self-efficacy to the levels found for persons with high pretraining self-efficacy. Moreover, tests of mediation suggested that collaborative training may have enhanced appropriate skill development strategies without actually raising self-efficacy. CONCLUSION: Although collaborative training can facilitate the skill acquisition process for trainees with low self-efficacy, future research is needed that examines how the negative effects of low pretraining self-efficacy on complex skill acquisition can be more fully remediated. APPLICATION: The differential effects of collaborative training as a function of self-efficacy highlight the importance of person analysis and tailoring training to meet differing trainee needs.