Uncertainty of Predictions of Embankment Dam Breach Parameters

Risk assessment studies considering the failure of embankment dams often require the prediction of basic geometric and temporal parameters of a breach, or the estimation of peak breach outflows. Many of the relations most commonly used to make these predictions were developed from statistical analyses of data collected from historic dam failures. The prediction uncertainties of these methods are widely recognized to be very large, but have never been specifically quantified. This paper presents an analysis of the uncertainty of many of these breach parameter and peak flow prediction methods. Application of the methods and the uncertainty analysis are illustrated through a case study of a risk assessment recently performed by the Bureau of Reclamation for a large embankment dam in North Dakota.     

Fuzzy relations and fuzzy relational databases

This paper deals with the connections existing between fuzzy set theory and fuzzy relational databases. Our new result dealing with fuzzy relations is how to calculate the greatest lower bound (glb) of two similarity relations. Our main contributions in fuzzy relational databases are establishing from fuzzy set theory what a fuzzy relational database should be (the result is both surprising and elegant), and making fuzzy relational databases even more robust.Our work in fuzzy relations and in fuzzy databases had led us into other interesting problems—two of which we mention in this paper. The first is primarily mathematical, and the second provides yet another connection between fuzzy set theory and artificial intelligence. In understanding similarity relations in terms of other fuzzy relations and in making fuzzy databases more robust, we work with closure and interior operators; we present some important properties of these operators. In establishing the connection between fuzzy set theory and artificial intelligence, we show that an abstraction on a set is in fact a partition on the set; that is, an abstraction defines an equivalence relation on the underlying set.     

Risk factors associated with recidivism among extrafamilial child molesters.

This study examined the predictive efficacy of 10 rationally derived, archivally coded variables for assessing reoffense risk among extrafamilial child molesters. Follow-up data on 111 child molesters who were discharged from the Massachusetts Treatment Center between 1960 and 1984 were used. Degree of sexual preoccupation with children, paraphilias, and number of prior sexual offenses predicted sexual recidivism. Juvenile and adult antisocial behavior, paraphilias, and low amount of contact with children predicted nonsexual victim-involved and violent recidivism. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves in all three analyses indicated discrimination that was substantially better than chance, ranging from .73 to .79. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Perceived consequences of risky behaviors: Adults and adolescents.

Adult and adolescent Ss were asked to list possible consequences of either accepting or declining opportunities to engage in various potentially risky behaviors (e.g., drinking and driving, skipping school to go to a mall). Response patterns were quite similar for these adults and adolescents, indicating shared beliefs about the possibilities. Although taking and avoiding a risk are logically complementary actions, they did not prove to be psychologically complementary. Other comparisons showed systematic differences in the consequences produced for 1-time and regular (or repeated) versions of the same behaviors, as well as open-ended and closed-ended response modes. These results are discussed in terms of their methodological implications for studying risk perceptions, their practical implications for influencing adolescents' risk behaviors, and their theoretical implications for understanding intellectual development. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Hot-rolling simulation and modelling using Gleeble 1500

Using the Gleeble 1500, incremental and continuous hot compression tests, simulating hot rolling, were performed on C-Mn, Nb-T, and Nb steels with test temperatures varying between 875 and 1100°C and strain rates between 0.5 and 20 s^?1. Four models are proposed. The stress peak model allows the prediction of continuous stress-strain curves from incremental curves and vice versa through the use of stress restoration index K. Variation in K for Nb-T₁, C-Mn and Nb steels at strain rates of 3, 12 and 20 s^?1 was found to be negligible. The predicted stress strain curve corresponds to experimental stress strain curve at same temperature and strain rate. The strain history model predicts continuous strain-time curves from incremental stress-strain curves using ‘constant’ ‘negative strain’ restoration index. At 950°C, with holding time 2 s and strain rate 12 s^?1, strain time decay curves obtained for C-Mn, Nb and Nb-T, steels were ε = 1.5e^?05t, ε = 1.2e^?0.36t and ε = e^?0.3t, respectively. The creep model analysis relates creep strain rate to the testing strain rate. For Nb steel at 875°C, and test strain rate of 12 s^?1, ?_creep was found to be 9.5 s^?1. The stress history model predicts continuous stress-time curves from incremental stress-time curves. Stress decay curve for C-Mn steel at 1100°C and ? = 3s^?1 was found to be σ = 181e^?0.04t. Hot rolling characteristics of steels can be accurately predicted using hot compression tests and proposed models.