Corporate rumors and conspiracy theories

Rumors are analogous to wildfire. The longer they burn, the more they burn. If you are a manager understand that the sooner you pour water onto a fire, the sooner it will extinguish. Companies are like forests that have not had rain for years: Fires will ignite no matter what. Create open communication channels via which subordinates can bring their concerns to you first without broadcasting them on the corporate airwaves. And what if you're an employee stuck in the quagmire of rumors? Understand that your career will not benefit from wasting corporate resources to kill the rumor. Report the matter to managers and let them deal with it. If you attempt to interfere in the process, the company could fire you     

An ethical can of worms for software certifiers

Society and the software industry are well served if certifiers do their job ethically. Thus it behooves everyone to, as much as possible, create an environment that encourages ethical behavior while identifying and discouraging unethical behavior during software certification. If enough discerning customers shun low-quality, uncertified software, those products will be replaced by higher quality, certified software. This reasoning implies, however, that options exist; the continuing trend of companies absorbing or merging with other companies could result in a shrinking pool of developers, offering customers fewer and fewer software options. Reduced competition may also reduce the probability that software adhering to quality standards will be available in the marketplace. To avoid this fate, the software development industry must mature professionally. Society needs this maturity as computing and telecommunications become ubiquitous. Software professionals must demand ethical behavior of themselves and an ethical environment to work in. Software certifiers, properly supported, could became an important part of an ethical software development environment     

Estimating the probability of failure when testing reveals nofailures

Formulas for estimating the probability of failure when testing reveals no errors are introduced. These formulas incorporate random testing results, information about the input distribution; and prior assumptions about the probability of failure of the software. The formulas are not restricted to equally likely input distributions, and the probability of failure estimate can be adjusted when assumptions about the input distribution change. The formulas are based on a discrete sample space statistical model of software and include Bayesian prior assumptions. Reusable software and software in life-critical applications are particularly appropriate candidates for this type of analysis     

Correlation between modes of drinking and modes of driving as reported by students at two American universities

This paper examines the correlates and predictors of driving under the influence behaviors (DUIBs) during the past month by college students. Measures of heavy episodic drinking, monthly drinking frequency, monthly drinking variance, monthly drinks per occasion and reported marijuana use are compared as predictors net of other predictive factors. A cross-sectional telephone survey was conducted with college students by a university social science research laboratory. Respondents attended two large public universities located in the southwestern part of the US. Participants included 803 randomly selected college students. The interview schedule included items from the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey and the College Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide. Several additional last-drinking-event items were also developed for the interview. Bivariate analyses indicate that marijuana use (past year), heavy episodic drinking, reports of DUIBs (driving under the influence or riding with a driver who is under the influence) in the past year, monthly frequency of drinking, the average number of drinks consumed when drinking and age are correlates of DUIBs during the past month. Multivariate analyses indicate past year DUIBs, monthly frequency of drinking and monthly marijuana use predicted recent DUIB.     

The relationship of alcohol safety laws to drinking drivers in fatal crashes

This paper presents an analysis of the relationships between the passage of key alcohol safety laws and the number of drinking drivers in fatal crashes. The study evaluated three major alcohol safety laws--administrative license revocation laws, 0.10 illegal per se, and 0.08 illegal per se laws--on the proportion of drinking drivers in fatal crashes. Drivers aged 21 and older in fatal crashes at two BAC levels--0.01-0.09 and 0.10 or greater--were considered separately. Drivers under age 21 were not included because they are affected by the Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) law. This study used data on drinking drivers in fatal crashes from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) covering 16 years (1982-1997) for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Also included in the study were such variables as per capita alcohol consumption and annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT), which could affect the number of alcohol-related crashes. The results indicate that each of the three laws had a significant relationship to the downward trend in alcohol-related fatal crashes in the United States over that period. This paper points out that this long-term trend is not the product of a single law. Instead, it is the result of the growing impact of several laws over time plus the affect of some factors not included in the model tested (such as the increasing use of sobriety checkpoints and the media's attention to the drinking-and-driving problem).     

Female involvement in fatal crashes: increasingly riskier or increasingly exposed?

Men have long held the lead in motor-vehicle crashes. However, recent research from a variety of countries indicates that women are closing the gap. The relative increase in females involved in crashes has been associated with an increase in crash exposure. But is it simply that there are more women driving that is causing this increase? Or are there other mediating factors? The main goal of this research effort was to shed some light on this controversy. We found evidence that most of the observed increase in female drivers' fatalities was due to a parallel increase in female driving exposure but that some groups of female drivers (mainly underage female drivers) have become more vulnerable to some risk-taking driving behaviors than others.     

Nighttime observations of safety belt use: an evaluation of California's primary law

OBJECTIVES: An analysis was conducted to determine what effect California's change to a primary safety belt law had on safety belt use among nighttime weekend drivers. METHODS: Observations of 18,469 drivers in 2 California communities were made during voluntary roadside surveys conducted every other Friday and Saturday night from 9 PM to 2 AM for 4 years. RESULTS: Rates of safety belt use rose from 73.0% to 95.6% (P < .0005). For drivers with blood alcohol concentrations of 0.10 or higher, rates rose from 53.4% to 92.1% (P < .0005). CONCLUSIONS: Because substantial improvement in safety belt use was seen even in a group of high-risk drivers, the injury reduction benefits of this law may be high.     

The relationship of underage drinking laws to reductions in drinking drivers in fatal crashes in the United States

This study reports on an effort to evaluate and interrelate the existence and strength of two core laws and 14 expanded laws designed to (a) control the sales of alcohol, (b) prevent possession and consumption of alcohol, and (c) prevent alcohol impaired driving by youth aged 20 and younger. Our first analysis determined if the enactment of the possession and purchase laws (the two core minimum legal drinking age laws) was associated with a reduction in the ratio of drinking to nondrinking drivers aged 20 and younger who were involved in fatal crashes controlling for as many variables as possible. The ANOVA results suggest that in the presence of numerous covariates, the possession and purchase laws account for an 11.2% (p=0.041) reduction in the ratio measure. Our second analysis determined whether the existence and strength of any of the 16 underage drinking laws was associated with a reduction in the percentage of drivers aged 20 and younger involved in fatal crashes who were drinking. In the regression analyses, making it illegal to use a false identification to purchase alcohol was significant. From state to state, a unit difference (increase) in the strength of the False ID Use law was associated with a 7.3% smaller outcome measure (p=0.034).     

A new generation of software quality conferences

Software quality conferences and workshops are expected to introduce people with problems to people with solutions. The reverse is also true. The goal is education and the stimulation of new ideas. Software quality conferences are clearly one of our best assets for improving the quality of the products that the software industry produces. I have by no means attended all of the domestic and international software quality conferences that occur yearly, bi-yearly or randomly, but I have had the pleasure of attending over 100 conferences and workshops during the past 10 years. Speaking only for the events I have recently attended, it is clearer to me than ever that we are not designing software quality conference programs as well as we can     

Assessing the effectiveness of minimum legal drinking age and zero tolerance laws in the United States

The objective of this research was to determine the extent to which the decline in alcohol-related highway deaths among drivers younger than age 21 years can be attributed to raising the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) and establishing zero tolerance (0.02% blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for drivers younger than age 21 years) laws. Data on all drivers younger than age 21 years involved in fatalities in the United States from 1982 to 1997 were used in the study. Quarterly ratios of BAC-positive to BAC-negative drivers in each of the 50 states where analyzed in a pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis. After accounting for differences among the 50 states in various background factors, changes in economic and demographic factors within states over time, and the effects of other related laws, results indicated substantial reductions in alcohol-positive involvement in fatal crashes were associated with the two youth-specific laws.The policy of limiting youth access to alcohol through MLDA laws and reinforcing this action by making it illegal for underage drivers to have any alcohol in their system appears to have been effective in reducing the proportion of fatal crashes involving drinking drivers.