An overview on managing additive consistency of reciprocal preference relations for consistency-driven decision making and fusion: Taxonomy and future directions

The reciprocal preference relation (RPR) is a powerful tool to represent decision makers’ preferences in decision making problems. In recent years, various types of RPRs have been reported and investigated, some of them being the ‘classical’ RPRs, interval-valued RPRs and hesitant RPRs. Additive consistency is one of the most commonly used property to measure the consistency of RPRs, with many methods developed to manage additive consistency of RPRs. To provide a clear perspective on additive consistency issues of RPRs, this paper reviews the consistency measurements of the different types of RPRs. Then, consistency-driven decision making and information fusion methods are also reviewed and classified into four main types: consistency improving methods; consistency-based methods to manage incomplete RPRs; consistency control in consensus decision making methods; and consistency-driven linguistic decision making methods. Finally, with respect to insights gained from prior researches, further directions for the research are proposed.     

自密实轻集料混凝土双轴受力力学性能

为探究自密实轻集料混凝土双轴力学性能,采用三轴试验机对其进行双轴压-压和双轴拉-压试验,得到不同工况下的应力-应变曲线及其破坏形态,通过提取应力-应变曲线峰值应力和峰值应变,并与相关文献普通混凝土与轻集料混凝土研究成果对比,分析自密实轻集料混凝土双轴力学性能。研究结果表明:双轴压-压工况下,当侧向压应力较低时,试件主要呈现剪切破坏形态;当侧向应力较高时,试件呈劈裂破坏形态。双轴拉-压工况下,试件主要呈劈拉破坏形态,与侧向应力无关。随着侧向压应力的提高,自密实轻集料混凝土主压应力相对比无侧向应力工况明显提高,峰值应力最大提高均值幅度为68.08%,主拉应力随侧向压应力的提高逐步降低,最大降低幅度为62.35%。应用Kupfer双轴受力破坏准则验证自密实轻集料混凝土受侧向应力影响变化规律较为保守,同时基于Kupfer提出自密实轻集料混凝土双轴力学性能破坏准则,所得到的破坏准则方程具有良好的适用性。      

Artificial neural network modelling of the bioethanol-to-olefins process on a HZSM-5 catalyst treated with alkali

In this work the kinetic modelling of the transformation of bioethanol-to-olefins (BTO) process over a HZSM-5 catalyst treated with alkali using artificial neural networks (ANN) is presented. The main goal has been to obtain a BTO process neuronal model with the desired accuracy that allows the simplification and reduction of the computational cost with respect to a mechanistic knowledge model. To check the goodness of ANN base model structures, during the study a comparison with other alternative modelling techniques such as support vector machines was performed. Following a parameters optimization procedure and testing different training methods, the optimal ANN structure results to be a feed-forward 3–5–1 network with the Bayesian regularization training method. Using a set of experimental data obtained in a laboratory scale fixed bed reactor, we have obtained a similar fit to the knowledge model but with the advantage of being up to 43 times faster. These results are important for moving forward real time automatic control strategies in the biorefinery context.     

A multi-weight fuzzy Methodological Framework for Allocating Coalition Payoffs of Joint Water Environment Governance in Transboundary River Basins

To ensure transboundary river basins are protected as a system, forming water environment governance coalitions is important. However, accurate determination and allocation of the payoffs of joint environment governance under uncertain conditions is a challenging task. This study used a triangular fuzzy number to describe the payoff and solve the fuzzy allocation problem. The article also considered the importance of different coalitions and the effectiveness of the distribution. In addition, the authors constructed a multi-weight fuzzy allocation quadratic programming model and proposed an analytical solution to determine the triangular fuzzy allocation payoffs. These contributions were used to allocate the coalition payoff of basin-wide environment governance, and the Zhanghe River Basin is used as a case study. The results showed that the model produces outputs comparable with the Shapley value allocation method. Therefore, the proposed methodological framework can be used as an alternative allocation scheme that provides a reasonable solution during uncertainty.

     

水资源和水环境约束下的工业绿色GDP核算及发展效率研究——以长三角为例

长三角工业经济因水而兴,但同时存在用水问题,水资源和水环境对经济发展约束长期存在。在“以水而定、量水而行,强化水资源刚性约束”的水资源管理理念指导下,注重水资源节约与水环境保护、促进区域绿色发展是突破工业发展瓶颈的关键所在。论文聚焦水资源和水环境对工业经济绿色发展的双重约束,探索在水资源与水环境约束下长三角地区工业绿色GDP及其发展效率变化趋势和地区差异,以此提出对策建议。论文以长三角3省1市为例,2006—2019年为样本,利用改进后的资源损失价值调整法核算工业绿色GDP,并以此为产出指标,并采用超效率SBM模型评价工业绿色发展效率。研究结果表明：1）长三角地区整体工业绿色GDP占比逐年上升,耗减经济损失和降级经济损失呈下降趋势,水资源浪费和污染问题逐步改善;2）从时间趋势看,长三角地区绿色发展效率值总体呈现上升趋势,与无约束下的发展效率差异逐渐缩小,从地域差异看,上海、江苏工业经济发展效率处于较高水平,浙江、安徽工业绿色发展效率水平始终低于有效状态,有较大的提升空间。总的来说,长三角地区的工业经济发展对水资源和水环境的依赖程度随时间推移不断减弱,但依旧有较大的改进空间。基于此,为降低资源耗费和环境成本,进一步减少工业经济发展对水资源和水环境的依赖性,提升工业绿色发展效率,提出如下建议：加快资源利用与环保技术创新,实现从源头上减少对水资源的消耗与浪费,降低工业污染物排放量、抑制水质下降;优化水资源定价模式,综合供需平衡、利用效率、循环利用率等因素,实施差别定价;建立水资源一体化综合管理机构,以强带弱,不断减少地方差距,全面实现联保共治。     

基于CGE模型的生态补偿与宏观经济效应分析——以长三角为例

在长三角区域发展模式的长期摸索与实践中,如何协调平衡生态环境保护与经济社会发展是长三角区域高质量一体化发展的一个重要课题。现有研究虽然在环境治理与生态补偿方面进行了积极探索,但是在生态补偿标准的确定、生态治理的宏观经济效应等方面缺乏量化分析。论文在传统CGE(computable general equilibrium)模型的基础之上,将生态资源作为一种生产要素引入经济系统,并将生态环境视为一个独立主体,着重强调生态系统在社会经济运行中的价值贡献,构建了考虑生态要素的绿色SAM（social accounting matrix）表和包含生态要素投入与生态系统账户的宏观CGE模型。论文选择长三角地区作为研究对象,利用长江三角洲的具体数据对生态价值核算价格体系进行修正,量化了长三角地区的生态系统服务价值,在此基础上通过社会核算矩阵收集研究主体的相关数据,并从国内生产总值、居民收入、企业收入、政府收入以及居民消费福利水平的角度对不同水平的生态补偿会产生的宏观经济影响进行了分析。研究结果表明：提高增值税率、居民对生态环境的转移支付率、企业对生态环境的转移支付率和政府对生态环境的转移支付率等4种情景,均能引致生态补偿量增加,但是在提高相同幅度的情形中不同措施产生的效果有较大差异,以同样提高30%的情况为例,政府对生态系统转移支付率对生态补偿水平的提升作用最为明显,增长了10.01%;其次是企业对生态系统的转移支付率与居民对生态系统的转移支付率,增长率分别为2.77%与1.01%,而提高增值税率对生态补偿水平的提升效果最弱,增长率仅为077%。除此之外,相较于其他政策工具,提高增值税会对国内生产总值与居民福利水平产生比较明显的负面影响,当增值税提升30%时,GDP下降了0.002 5%,居民福利水平产生下降了0.002 7%。     

长三角城市群知识密集型服务业空间关联研究——基于社会网络分析视角

知识密集型服务业对于促进长三角经济增长,构建长三角“一核五圈四带”区域一体化网络空间格局有指导性作用。以长三角城市群KIBS作为研究对象,选取2011年和2016年为时间截面,通过引力模型和社会网络模型构建长三角KIBS空间关联网络,并运用网络密度、网络中心度、凝聚子群、核心边缘结构等方法分析长三角KIBS发展水平差异和结构演化特征。实证研究结果表明：长三角KIBS联系途径网络化,联系方向临近中心指向;产业集群尚未产生良好协同作用,但发展潜力突出;传统行政壁垒被打破,跨省合作越来越密切。在此基础上,提出发展长三角城市群KIBS的对策与建议。     

A statistical analysis of occurrence and association between structural fire hazards in heritage housing

Reported in this paper is a novel application of statistical analysis of structural fire hazards that were found in heritage housing stock in a metropolitan area. The structural fire hazards in terms of non-compliances to the building regulations are digitised and then subjected to statistical analysis to obtain estimates of probabilities of occurrence under various conditions. The concepts of Hamming distance, Jaccard distance, virtual distance and pairwise Phi correlation coefficients are employed in the analysis to estimate the association between the fire hazards. Estimates of the probability distribution over the number of joint occurrence of hazards and pairwise joint probabilities are also obtained. In addition the 3-tuple and 4-tuple joint probabilities are analysed. Finally, logistic regression models are established to correlate each fire hazard with the others. The results show that not only the probability of occurrence of structural fire hazards is high, but probability of multiple occurrence is also significant. There are indications that some structural fire hazards are correlated. The findings of this study may assist certifying authorities, building surveyors, fire safety engineers and fire services in identifying fire hazards in heritage buildings and developing alleviating and effective strategies or solutions to protect life safety of building occupants as well as the cultural heritage values of the relevant building stock.     

基于互惠共赢的 DB 联合体工程优化收益分配机制

设计施工总承包模式（DB/EPC）是目前国际上广泛应用的工程承包方式,而设计方和施工方组成联合体承包又是一种主流的承包方式;DB 的最大优势是利用设计施工一体化的条件优化工程,而优化收益如何分配不仅影响到双方积极性,甚至关系到设计和施工方合作的成败。现有研究完全采用“经济人”假设,并通过构建博弈模型,进而提出 DB 联合体双方优化工程额外收益的分配方案。然而,设计方和施工方组成联合体已建立了信任基础,应同时考虑“经济人”和“社会人”假设;基于此,构建按双方承担风险责任的大小分配优化工程额外收益的模型;同时,考虑到公平性,设计了“第三方”评估机制,对工程设计方和施工方工程优化中承担风险责任的大小进行评估,以科学合理分配工程设计方和施工方优化工程所得额外收益,进而实现互惠共赢     

重大水利工程项目环境损害谣言的网络传播与社会风险管控

随着互联网的快速发展,网络逐渐成为重大水利工程项目环境利益冲突的宣泄口,社会公众对其环境影响的非理性认识极易形成网络谣言,放大社会风险。论文以环境损害谣言为切入点,探索重大水利工程项目中“政府-媒体-公众”多主体互动下的网络谣言传播机理。通过改进谣言传播模型,定量研究谣言在网络中传播的超时空性、多主体性、广泛性对风险管控的具体影响,进一步分析政府监管定位与防范化解社会风险的有效手段。Matlab仿真结果表明,辟谣速度、辟谣强度、信息公开程度等管控策略应针对传谣群体、谣言阶段、谣言形成原因以及谣言重要程度等的不同因情施策,进而提出相关政策建议。