Chaotic Bayesian optimal prediction method and its application in hydrological time series

The embedding dimension and the number of nearest neighbors are very important parameters in the prediction of chaotic time series. To reduce the prediction errors and the uncertainties in the determination of the above parameters, a new chaos Bayesian optimal prediction method (CBOPM) is proposed by choosing optimal parameters in the local linear prediction method (LLPM) and improving the prediction accuracy with Bayesian theory. In the new method, the embedding dimension and the number of nearest neighbors are combined as a parameter set. The optimal parameters are selected by mean relative error (MRE) and correlation coefficient (CC) indices according to optimization criteria. Real hydrological time series are taken to examine the new method. The prediction results indicate that CBOPM can choose the optimal parameters adaptively in the prediction process. Compared with several LLPM models, the CBOPM has higher prediction accuracy in predicting hydrological time series.     

A critical review of soil moisture measurement

Soil moisture content has paramount importance in dictating engineering, agronomic, geological, ecological, biological and hydrological characteristics of the soil mass. Though earlier researchers have employed various techniques of moisture content determination of soils, both in laboratory and in situ conditions, ascertaining the applicability of these techniques to soils of entirely different characteristics and the ‘types of moisture content’, which they can measure, is still a point of debate. As such, a critical review of all the established and emerging soil moisture measurement techniques with respect to their merits and demerits becomes necessary. With this in view, efforts have been made in this paper to critically evaluate all the soil moisture measurement techniques, limitations associated with them and the influence of various soil-specific parameters (viz., mineralogy, salinity, porosity, ambient temperature, presence of the organic matter and matrix structure of the soil) on the measured soil moisture content. This paper also highlights the importance of various innovations based on Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) and nano-sensors that are emerging in this context.     

基于线结构光的三维垂线位移测量方法

垂线测量法是观测大坝变形位移的一种简便而有效的方法,在实际大坝变形监测中得到广泛应用。 针对现有垂线坐标 仪大多只能测量垂线二维位移且结构复杂的问题,本文提出了一种基于线结构光的三维垂线测量方法。 基于垂线测量中垂线 方向不变,利用线结构光测量原理实现垂线三维位移测量。 首先,本文采用线结构光测量获取垂线二维位移,然后基于垂线上 固定标志点的成像光线和垂线相交于一点的事实,综合垂线二维测量结果和通过相机内参数恢复的固定标志点成像光线方程, 实现垂线三维位移测量。 实验结果表明,本方法在水平面内 Y 方向上的位移测量精度为±0. 1 mm,在水平面内 X 方向和竖直 Z 方向上的位移测量精度达到±0. 05 mm,测量范围为 0~ 80 mm。 相较目前垂线位移测量方法,本文方法垂线位移测量精度和测 量范围更高,且测量结构简单。     

河南省节水潜力及实施半旱地农业可行性研究

在收集整理河南省水资源开发利用现状和节水农业发展等资料的基础上,综合考虑工程措施、农艺措施和管理措施等的影响,分析了河南省不同水平年可能达到的节水潜力,并就河南省实施半旱地农业的可行性进行了分析,提出了河南省不同分区发展半旱地农业的具体技术措施。     

在固定的独立覆盖网格中求解几何非线性问题

采用独立覆盖流形法(基于流形思想的“分区级数解”),提出在空间固定的网格中求解几何非线性问题的新方法:在当前构形中关注经过各空间点的物质点,通过级数“逆向追踪”物质点在上一时步的位置及其应力、速度等物理量,并采用最小二乘法形成新级数作为当前时步的初值,就可以在固定网格中求解拉格朗日型的控制方程;每步计算后更新材料体构形,即更新固定网格(独立覆盖)中的积分区域,以得到准确的材料边界;以覆盖合并方式处理边界网格中的“小块”问题,并通过“小块”实现新网格的信息传递。给出弹性体大变形、刚体旋转算例验证方法的有效性。新方法集合了拉格朗日法的跟踪物质点、控制方程简单、边界描述准确以及欧拉法的网格无扭曲的优点,避免了2种方法各自的缺陷,为下一步在固定网格中进行几何非线性的自适应分析打下基础。     

浮体式结构阻力系数试验研究

浮体式结构应用在平原水利防洪工程中时,会导致水流流态及流速分布发生变化,影响过流能力。为得到浮体式结构在运行过程中阻力系数的变化规律及因素影响机理,本文采用物理模型试验,基于水动力学理论分析,对浮体式结构阻水系数的影响因子及其敏感性进行系统研究。利用量纲分析和多元线性拟合,比较得到浮体式结构阻力系数定量计算的最优数学模型,并采用数理统计对该公式进行检验。结果表明：阻力系数与浮体式结构体型、位置、水位条件以及雷诺数有关,且四种影响参数的敏感性明显不同;通过检验得到阻力系数计算模型在可靠性以及精确度方面能够满足工程需要,可为相关工程提供理论依据。     

沙漠矿物组成与生态修复的互馈关系研究

以乌兰布和沙漠和库布齐沙漠为研究区域,在流动沙丘、半固定沙丘和固定沙丘分别采集表层(0～20 cm)、中层(20～40 cm)和底层(40～60 cm)沙样,分析了沙漠不同深度沙样的粒径组成、矿物成分、风化程度及三者之间的关系。针对不同植被覆盖区域进行采样,研究了沙漠生态修复与风化程度、黏性矿物含量之间的关系,揭示了沙漠矿物风化程度与生态修复的互馈关系。结果表明:沙漠表层沙样粒径小于中层和底层沙样,黏性矿物含量高于中层和底层;风化程度越高,黏性矿物含量越高,粒径组成越细。植被盖度与矿物风化程度和黏性矿物含量之间具有良好的关系,植被盖度由4%增加至18%～22%时,黏性矿物含量和风化程度增加速率较快,之后增加速率减小。矿物风化程度随生态修复的时间逐渐增加,对库布齐沙漠来说,随着植被盖度和风化程度增加,黏性矿物中伊利石含量显著增加。     

国家标准《岩土工程仪器术语及符号》的编制研究

笔者将自己在国家标准GB／T24106—2009《岩土工程仪器术语及符号》的编制中对相关内容的研究进行了总结,特别是在术语标准的制定和修订方面,文章给出了一些有益的方法和启示。     

Dam risk assistant analysis system design

In order to reduce the labor intensity and task difficulty of dam risk analysis and to meet the actual requirement of dam risk analysis, it is necessary to establish a dam risk assistant analysis system. The program structure and the implementation ways of the dam risk assistant analysis system are analyzed, and a procedural framework with “three-tier and multi-database” structure and “level structure” is established. The concept of dam risk assessment system modular development is proposed and the coupled mode of function module and data is improved. Finally, the dam risk assistant analysis system is developed using Delphi visual programming language.

     

溢流曲面紊流边界层计算探讨

本文推导了溢流曲面(含坝顶曲线段、陡坡段及反弧段)水流连续方程及全水深边界层动量积分方程,对两方程联立求解,得到了溢流曲面沿程边界层厚度及水深值,计算结果与实测资料吻合较好.