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61.
Gaussian process (GP) models form an emerging methodology for modelling nonlinear dynamic systems which tries to overcome certain limitations inherent to traditional methods such as e.g. neural networks (ANN) or local model networks (LMN).The GP model seems promising for three reasons. First, less training parameters are needed to parameterize the model. Second, the variance of the model's output depending on data positioning is obtained. Third, prior knowledge, e.g. in the form of linear local models can be included into the model. In this paper the focus is on GP with incorporated local models as the approach which could replace local models network.Much of the effort up to now has been spent on the development of the methodology of the GP model with included local models, while no application and practical validation has yet been carried out. The aim of this paper is therefore twofold. The first aim is to present the methodology of the GP model identification with emphasis on the inclusion of the prior knowledge in the form of linear local models. The second aim is to demonstrate practically the use of the method on two higher order dynamical systems, one based on simulation and one based on measurement data. 相似文献
62.
In this paper we study the problem of estimating the possibly non-homogeneous material coefficients inside a physical system, from transient excitations and measurements made in a few points on the boundary. We assume there is available an adequate Finite Element (FEM) model of the system, whose distributed physical parameters must be estimated from the experimental data.We propose a space–time localization approach that gives a better conditioned estimation problem, without the need of an expensive regularization. Some experimental results obtained on an elastic system with random coefficients are given. 相似文献
63.
There are many dynamic multi-objective optimization problems (DMOPs) in real-life engineering applications whose objectives change over time. After an environmental change occurs, prediction strategies are commonly used in dynamic multi-objective optimization algorithms to find the new Pareto optimal set (POS). Being able to make more accurate prediction means the algorithm requires fewer computational resources to make the population approximate to the Pareto optimal front (POF). This paper proposes a hybrid diversity maintenance method to improve prediction accuracy. The method consists of three steps, which are implemented after an environmental change. The first step, based on the moving direction of the center points, uses the prediction to relocate a number of solutions close to the new Pareto front. On the basis of self-defined minimum and maximum points of the POS in this paper, the second step applies the gradual search to produce some well-distributed solutions in the decision space so as to compensate for the inaccuracy of the first step, simultaneously and further enhancing the convergence and diversity of the population. In the third step, some diverse individuals are randomly generated within the region of next probable POS, which prompts the diversity of the population. Eventually the prediction becomes more accurate as the solutions with good convergence and diversity are selected after the non-dominated sort [1] on the combined solutions generated by the three steps. Compared with three other prediction methods on a series of test instances, our method is very competitive in convergence and diversity as well as the speed at which it responds to environmental changes. 相似文献
64.
65.
Paul ValckenaersAuthor Vitae Hendrik Van BrusselAuthor VitaeHerman BruyninckxAuthor Vitae Bart Saint GermainAuthor VitaeJan Van BelleAuthor Vitae Johan PhilipsAuthor Vitae 《Computers in Industry》2011,62(6):623-637
Dagstuhl seminar no. 10102 on discrete event logistic systems recognized a network of persistent models to be a “Grand Challenge.” Such on-line model network will offer an infrastructure that facilitates the management of logistic operations. This ambition to create a network of persistent models implies a radical shift for model design activities as the objective is an infrastructure rather than application-specific solutions. In particular, model developers can no longer assume that they know what their model will be used for. It is no longer possible to design for the expected.This paper presents insights in model development and design in the absence of precise knowledge concerning a model's usage. Basically, model developers may solely rely on the presence of the real-world counterpart mirrored by their model and a general idea about the nature of the application (e.g. coordination of logistic operations). When the invariants of their real-world counterpart suffice for models to be valid, these models become reusable and integrate-able. As these models remain valid under a wide range of situations, they become multi-purpose and durable resources rather than single-purpose short-lived components or legacy, which is even worse.Moreover and more specifically, the paper describes how to build models that allow their users to generate predictions in unexpected situations and atypical conditions. Referring to previous work, the paper concisely discusses how these predictions can be generated starting from the models. This prediction-generating technology is currently being transferred into an industrial MES. 相似文献
66.
Support vector regression provides an alternative to the neural networks in modeling non-linear real-world patterns. Rough values, with a lower and upper bound, are needed whenever the variables under consideration cannot be represented by a single value. This paper describes two approaches for the modeling of rough values with support vector regression (SVR). One approach, by attempting to ensure that the predicted high value is not greater than the upper bound and that the predicted low value is not less than the lower bound, is conservative in nature. On the contrary, we also propose an aggressive approach seeking a predicted high which is not less than the upper bound and a predicted low which is not greater than the lower bound. The proposal is shown to use ?-insensitivity to provide a more flexible version of lower and upper possibilistic regression models. The usefulness of our work is realized by modeling the rough pattern of a stock market index, and can be taken advantage of by conservative and aggressive traders. 相似文献
67.
68.
T. Babaie R. Karimizandi C. Lucas 《Soft Computing - A Fusion of Foundations, Methodologies and Applications》2008,12(9):857-873
The multi criteria and purposeful prediction approach has been introduced and is implemented by the fast and efficient behavioral
based brain emotional learning method. On the other side, the emotional learning from brain model has shown good performance
and is characterized by high generalization property. New approach is developed to deal with low computational and memory
resources and can be used with the largest available data sets. The scope of paper is to reveal the advantages of emotional
learning interpretations of brain as a purposeful forecasting system designed to warning; and to make a fair comparison between
the successful neural (MLP) and neurofuzzy (ANFIS) approaches in their best structures and according to prediction accuracy,
generalization, and computational complexity. The auroral electrojet (AE) index are used as practical examples of chaotic
time series and introduced method used to make predictions and warning of geomagnetic disturbances and geomagnetic storms
based on AE index. 相似文献
69.
In this paper we present a framework that combines some ideas of the behavioral modeling approach and the prediction error modeling approach. It is shown that the proposed model selection procedure can be rephrased as an optimization problem that only depends on the model parameters. Experiments illustrate the potential of the so-called misfit versus latency framework. 相似文献
70.