定向能武器技术发展的回顾与展望

本文综合介绍了定向能武器的技术发展水平和未来发展趋势。     

Editorial.

With this volume, the 47-year old Canadian Journal of Psychology takes a new name and makes a renewed commitment. In retitling the journal the Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology, the intention is to reflect more clearly what has always been the major goal of the journal--to publish the best new research in experimental psychology, both Canadian and international, in both French and English. I am honoured to become the tenth editor of the major journal for experimental psychology in Canada. CJP has served the field very well; my primary goal is to ensure that CJEP continues to do so. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Finances and Well-Being: A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of Resources.

This study of 513 Dutch farmers tested a dynamic equilibrium model of resources (an extension of the conservation of resources theory; S. E. Hobfoll, 1989, 1998, 2001). With structural equation modeling, the advantages of a 3-wave longitudinal design were comprehensively used, such as addressing bidirectional causal effects and within-individual vs. between-individual change. This allowed for a careful analysis of the management function of resources in the stress process. Results showed that well-being had stronger within-person stability than finances. Increased levels of financial problems temporarily increased psychological distress but not self-reported illness. Conversely, farmers with higher stable baselines of psychological distress also had higher baselines of self-reported illness and experienced more negative changes in their financial situation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

动态模糊神经网络在大坝变形预报中的应用

针对静态模糊神经网络的局限性,提出了在线动态建模的模糊神经网络方法.当新增样本进入训练集之后,根据新样本对模型的贡献大小,在已有模型的基础上进行动态修正,这样可以减少建模的计算时间.新方法实现了增加样本而矩阵阶数不增加,避免了矩阵求逆运算,理论上可以提高计算效率.实例表明动态模糊神经网络方法是可行的,可实现持久预报,具有较强的适应能力和较高的预报精度,可应用于在线实时变形预报及相关领域.     

Lake-Level Change and Water Balance Analysis at Lake Qinghai,West China during Recent Decades

Lake Qinghai, the largest saline lake with an area of 4,260 km² (2000) and average depth of 21 m (1985) in West China, has experienced severe decline in water level in recent decades. This study aimed to investigate water balance of the lake and identify the causes for the decline in lake level. There was a 3.35-m decline in water level with an average decreasing rate of 8.0 cm year⁻¹ between 1959 and 2000. The lake water balance showed that mean annual precipitation between 1959 and 2000 over the lake was 357 ± 10 mm, evaporation was 924 ± 10 mm, surface runoff water inflow was 348 ± 21 mm, groundwater inflow was 138 mm ± 9 and the change in lake level was −80 ± 31 mm. The variation of lake level was highly positively correlated to surface runoff and precipitation and negatively to evaporation, the correlation coefficients were 0.89, 0.81 and −0.66, respectively. Water consumption by human activities accounts for 1% of the evaporation loss of the lake, implying that water consumption by human activities has little effect on lake level decline. Most dramatic decline in lake level occurred in the warm and dry years, and moderate decline in the cold and dry years, and relatively slight decline in the warm and wet years, therefore, the trend of cold/warm and dry climate in recent decades may be the main reasons for the decline in lake level.     

Network traffic prediction based on a new time series model

Fast and accurate methods for predicting traffic properties and trend are essential for dynamic network resource management and congestion control. With the aim of performing online and feasible prediction of network traffic, this paper proposes a novel time series model, named adaptive autoregressive (AAR). This model is built upon an adaptive memory‐shortening technique and an adaptive‐order selection method originally developed by this study. Compared to the conventional one‐step ahead prediction using traditional Box–Jenkins time series models (e.g. AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and ARFIMA), performance results obtained from actual Internet traffic traces have demonstrated that the proposed AAR model is able to support online prediction of dynamic network traffic with reasonable accuracy and relatively low computation complexity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多属性神经网络地震反演在NB油田水平井钻探中的应用

NB油田位于渤海海域,为新近系河流相稠油油田,储层横向分布不稳定,砂体厚度薄、连通性较差,油水关系复杂,开发设计部署了大量水平井。选择神经网络反演方法,建立地震属性与储层参数的非线性关系,进而根据其关系反演得到储层参数数据体,利用该数据体沿层切片提取储层预测信息,研究储层发育规律,指导该油田水平井的部署和钻探,取得了较好的效果,降低了钻探风险。用神经网络地震反演方法进行储层预测研究,指导水平井钻探,在渤海海域尚属首次。     

Experimental data and approximate estimation for dissociation time of hydrate plugs

New experimental data coupled with a numerical model and an approximate solution are proposed to predict dissociation time of hydrate plugs in oil sub-sea pipelines. The experimental hydrate plugs are dissociated by the method of symmetric depressurisation, both in a specially designed apparatus and a classical batch reactor. The agreement between the estimation of the model and the experimental data and the simplicity of the approximate equation presents an advantage in estimating the time of hydrate plug dissociation in pipelines.     

疲劳裂纹的灰色残差预测

借助灰色理论，建立了预测疲劳裂纹扩展的灰色残差预测模型，并应用此模型预测了某不锈钢构件腐蚀疲劳裂纹的扩展，得到了较高精度的预测结果，为疲劳裂纹预测提供了一种简易而可靠的新途径。