利用数据产生模糊推理系统的自适应学习方法

利用数据设计模糊推理系统分为两个主要内容: 结构辨识和参数优化. 论文首先通过定义隶属度函数和模糊规则简单地给出了一种初始模糊推理系统结构. 然后, 为了提高基于梯度的学习算法的收敛速度、减少振荡, 提出了一种产生模糊推理系统的改进梯度下降方法, 并对算法的收敛性和振荡情况进行了系统分析; 利用这些优化分析结果能够进一步确定在输入变量空间的哪一个区域中模糊规则的密度应该加强, 以及在哪一个输入变量上用于划分其论域的模糊子集的数目应该增加, 从而获得一个新的更精确的模糊推理系统结构. 最后将所提出的方法用于解决非线性函数的逼近问题.     

基于VMD和GP的短期风电功率置信区间预测

传统风电点预测算法无法对风机出力的不确定性、随机性、波动性做出定量描述,提出一种基于变分模态分解(VMD)和高斯过程(GP)的区间预测方法,其意义在于能预测一定置信度下的短期风电功率波动区间。该方法利用变分模态分解算法将风功率序列分解为一系列不同带宽的模态分量以降低其非线性,对全部子模态分别建立高斯过程模型,最后叠加每个子模态预测结果得到风功率的置信区间。算例结果表明,与其他常规分解算法相比,该组合模型可以有效提高预测精度和预测区间覆盖率,减小预测区间宽度,具有一定的实用价值。     

考虑风电置信区间的水风火短期优化调度方法

风电出力的不确定性影响电网的稳定运行,大规模风电并网后"弃风"问题突出。为了充分考虑风电出力的不确定性,本文提出基于风电置信区间的风-水-火短期联合调度运行方法。利用梯级水电站启停灵活、爬坡速度快等优点平抑风电出力波动,构建了发电成本最小与清洁能源消纳最大的多目标优化调度模型。基于分层求解思想,将模型分为风电运行层、水电调度层与火电调度层,并提出了集成非参数法、启发式算法与改进的粒子群算法的总体求解框架,实现了模型的快速求解。某区域电网短期调度模拟运行结果表明,所提方法求解速度快,仅需83.5 s,在满足电力系统安全稳定运行约束与清洁能源消纳最大的前提下,水电、风电多发45.56万k Wh,煤耗成本减少23.33万元。     

核电厂设备易损度分析方法综述

易损度分析方法是地震概率安全评价中的一个重要步骤。本文介绍了地震易损度分析方法的发展历程和数学模型,以及近年来国内外易损度分析方法的进展,并对地震易损度分析方法的主要研究方向进行了总结。     

基于置信度判定的循环冗余校验纠错技术

以S模式下行数据链的检纠错为例,给出了基于置信度判定的循环冗余校验多位纠错技术,实现了突发和随机分布的多位差错的纠正,在不增加冗余码的情况下大大增强了循环冗余校验码的纠错能力.     

Disposal of high level nuclear wastes： Thermodynamic equilibrium and environment ethics

Contamination of soil, water or air, due to a failure of containment or disposal of high level nuclear wastes, can potentially cause serious hazards to the environment or human health. Essential elements of the environment and radioactivity dangers to it are illustrated. Issues of high level nuclear waste disposal are discussed with a focus on thermodynamic equilibrium and environment ethics. Major aspects of the issues are analyzed and described briefly to build a perception of risks involved and ethical implications. Nuclear waste containment repository should be as close as possible to thermodynamic equilibrium. A clear demonstration about safety aspects of nuclear waste management is required in gaining public and political confidence in any possible scheme of permanent disposal. Disposal of high level nuclear waste offers a spectrum of environment connected challenges and a long term future of nuclear power depends on the environment friendly solution of the problem of nuclear wastes.     

Birnbaum-Saunders疲劳寿命分布尺度参数的区间估计

可靠性分析中的常用分布Birnbaum- Saunders疲劳寿命分布的参数还缺乏简单有效的精确区间估计方法,研究此分布参数的区间估计问题。提出了一个新的枢轴量来构造尺度参数的经典置信区间,给出了尺度参数的具有简单表达式的精确置信区间。取得的成果是此分布参数估计研究问题上的一项重要进展。     

Eyewitness recall: Regulation of grain size and the role of confidence.

Eyewitness testimony plays a critical role in Western legal systems. Three experiments extended M. Goldsmith, A. Koriat, and A. Weinberg-Eliezer's (2002) framework of the regulation of grain size (precision vs. coarseness) of memory reports to eyewitness memory. In 2 experiments, the grain size of responses had a large impact on memory accuracy. Further, participants achieved a compromise between the accuracy and informativeness of their testimony by volunteering precise answers only when likely to be correct. The level of detail reported was strongly, positively related to confidence in the accuracy of the response. This highlights the importance of considering the level of detail, not just the accuracy, of eyewitness testimony. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

安全阀弹簧的刚度及其抗拉强度置信区间的确定

对安全阀弹簧压缩试验时载荷与变形试验数据进行线性拟合，求出它的刚度；对抗拉强度的试验结果求出置信区间，减少了试验工作。     

Response Reversals in Recognition Memory.

Using a dynamic sequential sampling model and a recently proposed model for confidence judgments in recognition memory (T. Van Zandt, 2000b), the authors examine the tendency for rememberers to reverse their responses after a primary decision. In 4 experiments, speeded "old"-"new" decisions were made under bias followed by a 2nd response', either a confidence judgment or another simple choice. The data from these experiments showed that participants know when they have made a mistake and that they respond to this knowledge by reversing their responses. Response reversals are thus shown to be important for constructing models of the response-selection process in recognition memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)