健康长江评价指标体系与标准研究

科学的指标体系和标准是评价河流健康状况的技术依据。根据科学性、代表性、创新性等原则，运用主成分分析法和聚类分析法．构建了健康长江评价指标体系，包括河岸稳定性、河床稳定性等19个定量指标和水系连通性、河岸栖息地状况和珍稀水生动物存活状况3个定性指标；给出了相应指标的量化评价方法，并通过国内外相关研究成果的综合分析．提出了健康长江的评价标准及分类标准，为维持河流健康理论发展提供了新方法。     

改进灰色神经网络模型在电量预测中的应用

研究过程中分析比较了人工神经网络和灰色模型的优缺点,尝试将人工神经网络模型与改进灰色模型进行有机结合,从而提出了改进灰色神经网络模型。新的耦合方式发挥了灰色预测方法中累加生成的优点,便于神经网络进行训练,又避免了灰色预测方法带来的误差,提高了预测精度,是一种新的有益探索;为实际工程应用提供了重要的参考。     

调水工程系统风险评价体系研究

根据调水工程事故的特点和结构系统受损害的严重程度,以Pate—Cornell系统风险计算公式为基础,在调水工程结构系统的模糊失效概率的计算和调水工程事故后果模糊综合评判的基础上,系统地提出了调水工程结构系统的风险评估体系。     

区域水资源可持续利用评价的模糊可变评价方法

提出区域水资源可持续利用评价的可变模糊评价方法,对可变模糊评价方法及原理进行了描述,并应用该方法对西安市水资源可持续利用情况进行评价。通过对成果的可变分析,表明该方法对水资源可持续利用评价具有良好的适用性。将评价结果与物元分析法的评价结果进行了对比,指出了物元分析法存在的数学逻辑错误。模糊可变评价方法可拓展应用于其他评价领域。     

A method for assessing channelization effects on riparian vegetation in a Mediterranean environment

This paper proposes a methodology to assess the effects of artificial embankments on riparian vegetation. It then tests the methodology on a mountain torrent system in Calabria, Southern Italy. The method delimits homogeneous reaches within which a sample of embanked and control (unembanked) sites is identified for study. Transects, subdivided into sample areas, are located in embanked and control sub‐reaches. At these transects, vegetation parameters (number of species, canopy cover of each species and vegetation layer, height of each vegetation layer, vegetation type, biological forms and ecological groups) are surveyed. Two new parameters (global canopy cover and weighted canopy height) are also proposed to give synthetic information on the global development of vegetation. A simple hydraulic index (cA^b/W) is used to explore differences in riparian vegetation both along the river and according to local narrowing caused by embanking. Application of this methodology to a torrent system (locally called ‘fiumara’) illustrates a clear influence of concrete embankments in the upper and middle torrent reaches. It demonstrates that torrent narrowing induces: a decrease in the number of vegetation types with a tendency to confine the types to generally lower evolution levels and with a less marked trend between the thalweg and embankment; an increase in annual species and decrease in perennial species; and also a lower global canopy cover with, sometimes, a reduction in the weighted canopy height (WCH). This example illustrates that the methodology provides useful information concerning the impact of existing control works, which can aid the design of new works and can inform environmentally sensitive restoration of Mediterranean water courses. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrated modeling and assessment of water resources and water environment in the Yellow River Basin

An integrated model is established to simulate both hydrological processes and accompanied pollutant transfer processes in the Yellow River Basin. The model couples distributed hydrological model WEP-L (Water and Energy transfer Processes in Large river basins) and a newly developed water quality module which includes simulation functions of soil erosion and sediment transport, and non-point and point sources transfer to rivers. To overcome the defects of traditional water quality assessment, two aspects of improvement are conducted. One is the improvement of the traditional characteristic channel length approach, i.e., the product of multiplying channel length by lateral section area is selected as a new assessment criterion to reflect the different contributions of small channels and big ones, thus making the assessment results more objective. The other is the suggestion of integrated assessment approach for both water at channel lateral sections and water generated in sub-basins. The assessment results in the Yellow River Basin illustrate: (1) the improved characteristic channel length approach shows rivers of water quality worse than Class III account for 75% whilst the traditional approach give a result of 45%, implying that the actual status of water quality is worse than the traditional understanding; (2) the quality of water generated in sub-basins is much better than the quality of water at channel lateral sections. The assessment results describe the status of water resources quantity and quality from different points of view and thus provide valuable information for the water resources development and management in the basin.     

基于事故树分析的水泵断轴事故的危险评价

基于事故致因理论建立水泵断轴事故模型,将水泵断轴事故危险源分为工作应力超负荷、工作强度超负荷、泵轴维护正确三类,提出基于事故树分析法的水泵断轴危险性专项评价方法。通过对最小割集和最小径集的分析可知,对水泵断轴影响最大的是作用时间过长、次数过多、承受应力过大、对中不符合要求、装配过紧或过松、形位公差过大。对水泵断轴事故的预防提出建议,对水泵运行时间进行合理分配,正确合理地装配水泵并且时刻关注水泵的运行状态。     

Evaporative cooling: An assessment of california market potential and estimated impacts of key deployment barriers

The California Energy Commission has recognized evaporative cooling space conditioning as a key demand-side “Opportunity Technology,” which offers compelling energy, economic development and environmental benefits to the state. In 1993, the Commission lead an effort to form an industry Collaborative of Stakeholders whose primary focus was to improve market penetration through the identification and elimination of the key barriers to technology deployment. More recently, the Commission has supported this objective through the funding of a statewide market assessment of evaporative cooling in the residential and commercial market segments with Regional Economic Research, Inc. of San Diego, California under Contract No. 500-93-027. Summary data and results from this work are presented in this paper.Baseline forecasts of market shares and the associated energy impacts within the residential and commercial market segments, including new construction and existing facilities, were then developed for each statewide planning area and utility climate zone in California. Thereafter, forecasts of the sensitivity of market shares and energy impacts to changes in key drivers (e. g., awareness, technology costs, and select non-economic drivers) were generated to establish the relative importance of each of the technology market drivers. Finally, Achievable Potential was estimated in the form of market shares and associated energy savings, based upon assumptions with respect to the achievable reductions in evaporative cooling deployment barriers.     

基于中美比较视角的中国水资源开发进展

对比分析中美两国的水库库容变化、灌溉面积增长和用水结构演化历史,并将中国水资源开发数据同其他主要国家进行比较,认为中国用水总量将在农业用水、生活用水和生态用水等刚性增长的推动下再持续增长20年,提出加强水资源开发,开展西线大规模南水北调,提高西北地区水资源利用效率,统筹规划西北地区的生态用水等对策建议,以实现西部水土资源开发、扶贫和改善生态环境等多赢。     

水利枢纽工程自然环境影响分析

通过分析不同规模的水利枢纽工程对当地自然环境的影响,得出水利枢纽工程对当地水文、水质、泥沙、水生生物和陆生生物影响的规律,为水利枢纽的环境影响分析提供参考依据.