Bayesian inference in disputed authorship: A case study of cognitive errors and a new system for decision support

Bayesian inference provides a formal framework for assessing the odds of hypotheses in light of evidence. This makes Bayesian inference applicable to a wide range of diagnostic challenges in the field of chance discovery, including the problem of disputed authorship that arises in electronic commerce, counter-terrorism and other forensic applications. For example, when two documents are so similar that one is likely to be a hoax written from the other, the question is: Which document is most likely the source and which document is most likely the hoax? Here I review a Bayesian study of disputed authorship performed by a biblical scholar, and I show that the scholar makes critical errors with respect to several issues, namely: Causal Basis, Likelihood Judgment and Conditional Dependency. The scholar’s errors are important because they have a large effect on his conclusions and because similar errors often occur when people, both experts and novices, are faced with the challenges of Bayesian inference. As a practical solution, I introduce a graphical system designed to help prevent the observed errors. I discuss how this decision support system applies more generally to any problem of Bayesian inference, and how it differs from the graphical models of Bayesian Networks.     

Multiobjective dynamic load-dispatching method for optimal operation of power systems

A new practical method is proposed which gives a quasi-optimal solution of the dynamic load-dispatching problem formulated by a multiconstraint multiobjective optimization problem. Here, the multiple constraints are rate reserve constraints and power flow ones, and the multiple objectives are fuel cost and CO₂ emission. The proposed method is an integration of the following three techniques: (1) “Group Dispatch Scheme,” which is developed by the authors, is used to satisfy a violated constraint easily. This scheme consists of three steps. The first step is to classify all generators into two groups. One is the group which should be more loaded to satisfy the violated constraint, and the other is the should-be less loaded group. The second step is to add some load to the former group, and to subtract the same load from the latter. The third step is to dispatch each group load to each groups generators, respectively; (2) the dynamic load-dispatching algorithm is used which provides, in practical time, quasi-optimal generation trajectories; (3) the conventional weighting parametric method is used to obtain a Pareto optimal solution of multiobjective problems. The effectiveness of the method is clarified by a computer simulation on the actual power system of Kansai Electric Power Company.     

Binary rewriting and call interception for efficient runtime protection against buffer overflows

Buffer overflow vulnerabilities are one of the most commonly and widely exploited security vulnerabilities in programs. Most existing solutions for avoiding buffer overflows are either inadequate, inefficient or incompatible with existing code. In this paper, we present a novel approach for transparent and efficient runtime protection against buffer overflows. The approach is implemented by two tools: Type Information Extractor and Depositor (TIED) and LibsafePlus. TIED is first used on a binary executable or shared library file to extract type information from the debugging information inserted in the file by the compiler and reinsert it in the file as a data structure available at runtime. LibsafePlus is a shared library that is preloaded when the program is run. LibsafePlus intercepts unsafe C library calls such as strcpy and uses the type information made available by TIED at runtime to determine whether it would be ‘safe’ to carry out the operation. With our simple design we are able to protect most applications with a performance overhead of less than 10%. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radiosity with Well Distributed Ray Sets

In this paper we present a new radiosity algorithm, based on the notion of a well distributed ray set (WDRS). A WDRS is a set of rays, connecting mutually visible points and patches, that forms an approximate representation of the radiosity operator and the radiosity distribution. We propose an algorithm that constructs an optimal WDRS for a given accuracy and mesh. The construction is based on discrete importance sampling as in previously proposed stochastic radiosity algorithms, and on quasi Monte Carlo sampling. Quasi Monte Carlo sampling leads to faster convergence rates and the fact that the sampling is deterministic makes it possible to represent the well distributed ray set very efficiently in computer memory. Like previously proposed stochastic radiosity algorithms, the new algorithm is well suited for computing the radiance distribution in very complex diffuse scenes, when it is not feasible to explicitly compute and store form factors as in classical radiosity algorithms. Experiments show that the new algorithm is often more efficient than previously proposed Monte Carlo radiosity algorithms by half an order of magnitude and more.     

A study of the static and dynamic properties of side-chain liquid crystalline polymers in low molar mass mesogens

The static and dynamic properties of solutions of a side chain polysiloxane liquid crystal polymer have been studied in a cyanobiphenyl nematic host as a function of concentration and temperature. Refractive index measurements were carried out on aligned samples and the data used to determine the macroscopic order parameter, S, using Haller's method. Photon correlation spectroscopy has been used to measure ($\text{k}{}_{22}\text{γ}{}_1$) for the pure nematic solvent and the solutions. From these measurements it appears that the static properties vary slowly and linearly with increasing polymer concentration whilst the dynamic or viscoelastic properties change markedly. This change has been attributed to γ₁, the twist viscosity, and the results have been discussed in terms of the function of the siloxane polymer backbone.     

Negotiation support systems: roots, progress and needs

Abstract. This paper identifies game theories and social behavior science as important roots for negotiation support systems (NSS) research. As these are not typically cited in the NSS literature, summary reviews of them are provided with indications of their relevance to NSS study. On the other hand, neither offers a sufficiently general-purpose formal model of negotiation that could serve as a backbone for NSS research. A survey of that research is provided, indicating that prugress to date has been somewhat eclectic and devoid of such a model. Our central contention is that a theoretical foundation for NSS study is much needed. Desirable characteristics of a suitable negotiation model are identified as guidance for future research that will aim to devise (and subsequently apply and test) such a model.     

High temperature low cycle fatigue

Fatigue at high temperature is a complex phenomenon as it is influenced by a number of time-dependent processes which become important at elevated temperatures. These processes include creep, oxidation, phase instabilities and dynamic strain ageing (DSA), acting either independently or synergistically influence fatigue behaviour, often lowering the fatigue life. Current design approaches employ linear summation of fatigue and creep damage with suitable factors on permissible damage to take care of uncertainties in interaction between cyclic and time-dependent processes. It is, therefore, important to develop a deeper understanding of the processes that occur during high temperature fatigue so that realistic life predictions could be made. Results on the high temperature fatigue behaviour of austenitic stainless steels, ferritic steels and nickel base alloys are presented here. The important mechanisms of interaction of high temperature time-dependent processes with fatigue under various conditions are discussed in detail. Emphasis is placed on cyclic stress response, fatigue life, deformation substructure and fracture behaviour. This is followed by a review of important life prediction techniques under combined creep-fatigue loading conditions. Life prediction techniques considered here include linear damage summation, strain range partitioning, ductility exhaustion approach, frequency modified and frequency separation methods, techniques based on hysteresis energy and damage rate models, and methods based on crack-cavitation interation models.     

大集中后数据调整智能化处理的实现

文章简单介绍了INFORMIX关系数据库动态RDSQL语句的使用方法以及利用动态RDSQL语句成功开发的中国建设银行湖南省分行智能帐务调整模块的设计方法。     

Cyclic X-Y mechanical tests: A new method to perform in situ reversed-deformation experiments in the high-voltage electron microscope

There has been, in the past, only limited success with in situ cyclic or reversed plastic deformation tests in the transmission electron microscope (TEM). This is probably partly due to problems associated with buckling of the foil when an applied tensile or shear stress is reversed. Mechanical analysis shows that dislocation movement can be reversed by tensile stressing in alternating perpendicular directions (i.e., 90° rotations of a tensile stress); thus buckling of the foil can be avoided. A design for performing such X-Y in situ TEM tests is presented, with observations that demonstrate its feasibility.