Mixture ratio modeling of dynamic systems

Any knowledge extraction relies (possibly implicitly) on a hypothesis about the modelled-data dependence. The extracted knowledge ultimately serves to a decision-making (DM). DM always faces uncertainty and this makes probabilistic modelling adequate. The inspected black-box modeling deals with “universal” approximators of the relevant probabilistic model. Finite mixtures with components in the exponential family are often exploited. Their attractiveness stems from their flexibility, the cluster interpretability of components and the existence of algorithms for processing high-dimensional data streams. They are even used in dynamic cases with mutually dependent data records while regression and auto-regression mixture components serve to the dependence modeling. These dynamic models, however, mostly assume data-independent component weights, that is, memoryless transitions between dynamic mixture components. Such mixtures are not universal approximators of dynamic probabilistic models. Formally, this follows from the fact that the set of finite probabilistic mixtures is not closed with respect to the conditioning, which is the key estimation and predictive operation. The paper overcomes this drawback by using ratios of finite mixtures as universally approximating dynamic parametric models. The paper motivates them, elaborates their approximate Bayesian recursive estimation and reveals their application potential.     

新发展阶段中国水资源安全保障战略对策

进入新发展阶段，中国水资源安全保障需要以“节水优先、空间均衡、系统治理、两手发力”治水思路为指导，厘清问题、研判趋势、优化对策，支撑新阶段水利高质量发展。本文在全面分析我国水资源安全保障存在的突出问题与面临形势基础上，阐述了新发展阶段中国水资源安全保障的基本思路与战略路径，从保证资源安全、构建国家水网、强化供水保障、建设美丽河湖、改善水环境质量等方面提出了战略对策和需要进一步回答的重大问题，以期为完善新发展阶段中国水资源安全保障战略，全面提高国家水资源安全保障能力提供有力支撑。     

Flow state monitoring of gas-water two-phase flow using multi-Gaussian mixture model based on canonical variate analysis

As a highly complex and time-varying process, gas-water two-phase flow is commonly encountered in industries. It has a variety of typical flow states and transition flow states. Accurate identification and monitoring of flow states is not only beneficial to further study of two-phase flow but also helpful for stable operation and economic efficiency of process industry. Combining canonical variate analysis (CVA) and Gaussian mixture model (GMM), a strategy called multi-CVA-GMM is proposed for flow state monitoring in gas-water two-phase flow. CVA is used to extract flow state features from the perspective of correlation between historical data and future data, which solves the cross correlation and temporal correlation of multi-sensor measurement data. GMM calculates the possibility that the current flow state belongs to each typical flow pattern and judges the current flow state by probability indicators. It is conducive to follow-up use of Bayesian inference probability and Mahalanobis distance-based (BID) indicator for flow state monitoring, which avoids repeated traversal of multiple CVA-GMM models and improves the efficiency of the monitoring process. The probability indicators can also be used to analyze transition flow states. The method combining the probabilistic idea of GMM with the deterministic idea of multimodal modeling can accurately identify the current flow state and effectively monitor the evolution of flow state. The multi-CVA-GMM method is validated by using the measured data of the horizontal flow loop of gas-water two-phase flow experimental facility, and its effectiveness is proved.     

Two-level intelligent modeling method for the rate of penetration in complex geological drilling process

The rate of penetration (ROP) model is of great importance in achieving a high efficiency in the complex geological drilling process. In this paper, a novel two-level intelligent modeling method is proposed for the ROP considering the drilling characteristics of data incompleteness, couplings, and strong nonlinearities. Firstly, a piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation method is introduced to complete the lost drilling data. Then, a formation drillability (FD) fusion submodel is established by using Nadaboost extreme learning machine (Nadaboost-ELM) algorithm, and the mutual information method is used to obtain the parameters, strongly correlated with the ROP. Finally, a ROP submodel is established by a neural network with radial basis function optimized by the improved particle swarm optimization (RBFNN-IPSO). This two-level ROP model is applied to a real drilling process and the proposed method shows the best performance in ROP prediction as compared with conventional methods. The proposed ROP model provides the basis for intelligent optimization and control in the complex geological drilling process.     

采用信息增益率的混合入侵检测模型设计

针对现有混合入侵检测模型仅定性选取特征而导致检测精度较低的问题，同时为了充分结合误用检测模型和异常检测模型的优势，提出一种采用信息增益率的混合入侵检测模型.首先，利用信息增益率定量地选择特征子集，最大程度地保留样本信息；其次，采用余弦时变粒子群算法确定支持向量机参数构建误用检测模型，使其更好地平衡粒子在全局和局部的搜索能力，然后，选取灰狼算法确定单类支持向量机参数构建异常检测模型，以此来提高对最优参数的搜索效率和精细程度，综合提高混合入侵检测模型对攻击的检测效果；最后，通过两种数据集进行仿真实验，验证了所提混合入侵检测模型具有较好的检测性能.     

基于区块链技术的公益时间银行系统

在现有的时间银行系统中，时间币的发行功能和结算功能完全集中到一个中心节点上。这种极度中心化的功能结构，不仅存在容易发生中心节点单点失效、数据容易被篡改等信息安全问题，还存在着时间币的发行和流通缺乏透明度以及时间币的结算依赖中心化的结算机构等问题。针对这些问题，提出了一种基于区块链技术的解决方法。首先，将时间币的发行功能和结算功能从中心节点上分离出来；然后，利用具有分布式去中心化、集体维护和不可篡改等特性的区块链技术，将分离出来的发行功能逐步去中心化，将分离出来的结算功能去中心化，形成公益时间链（PWTB）；最终，PWTB利用区块链技术以去中心化的方式将时间银行系统由单个节点维护账本变成由集体维护一个分布式的共享账本，使时间币的发行和流通公开透明，时间币的结算不依赖某个中心化的节点。安全分析表明所设计的PWTB能够实现安全的信息传输与存储，以及数据的共享。     

Computational modelling of water flow inside laboratory Knelson concentrator bowl

Enhanced gravity concentrators such as Knelson concentrator (KC) are extensively used in the mineral processing industry. The complexities of KC bowl geometry and variation of feed characteristics have forced process engineers to design empirically new units using laboratory and pilot-scale Knelson concentrators. However, numerical modelling methods such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and discrete element method (DEM) provide a better insight of flow behaviour of fluid and particulate solid phases inside these processing units. This article reports findings of CFD simulations for single-phase water flow inside the laboratory KC. An available standard 7.5-cm laboratory KC bowl was numerically simulated using realisable k-ε turbulence model to resolve the turbulence dispersion of existing transitional flow regime. The effects of relative centrifugal force (RCF) intensity and bed fluidisation water flow rate on the water velocity and pressure distributions were studied. Simulations confirmed the swirling flow pattern governing inside the bowl. The results revealed that the impact of RCF intensity on the water field values is greater than that of bed fluidisation water flow rate. Both velocity and pressure variations inside the bowl rings followed a linear trend.     

A knowledge construction methodology to automate case-based learning using clinical documents

The case-based learning (CBL) approach has gained attention in medical education as an alternative to traditional learning methodology. However, current CBL systems do not facilitate and provide computer-based domain knowledge to medical students for solving real-world clinical cases during CBL practice. To automate CBL, clinical documents are beneficial for constructing domain knowledge. In the literature, most systems and methodologies require a knowledge engineer to construct machine-readable knowledge. Keeping in view these facts, we present a knowledge construction methodology (KCM-CD) to construct domain knowledge ontology (i.e., structured declarative knowledge) from unstructured text in a systematic way using artificial intelligence techniques, with minimum intervention from a knowledge engineer. To utilize the strength of humans and computers, and to realize the KCM-CD methodology, an interactive case-based learning system(iCBLS) was developed. Finally, the developed ontological model was evaluated to evaluate the quality of domain knowledge in terms of coherence measure. The results showed that the overall domain model has positive coherence values, indicating that all words in each branch of the domain ontology are correlated with each other and the quality of the developed model is acceptable.     

Development and validation of a micro-fin tubes evaporator model using R134a and R1234yf as working fluids

This paper presents a model of shell and tube evaporator with micro-fin tubes using R1234yf and R134a. The model developed for this evaporator uses the ε-NTU method to predict the evaporating pressure, the refrigerant outlet enthalpy and the outlet temperature of the secondary fluid. The model accuracy is evaluated using different two-phase flow boiling correlations for micro-fin tubes and comparing predicted and experimental data. The experimental tests were carried out for a wide range of operating conditions using R134a and R1234yf as working fluids. The predicted parameter with maximum deviations, between the predicted and experimental data, is the evaporating pressure. The correlation of Akhavan– Behabadi et al. was used to predict flow boiling heat transfer, with an error on cooling capacity prediction below 5%. Simulations, carried out with this validated model, show that the overall heat transfer coefficient of R1234yf has a maximum decrease of 10% compared with R134a.