用水竞争力指数评价方法及其应用研究

水资源短缺加剧了区域、行业间水资源竞争的程度,影响了水资源的演变格局,也对水资源供需管理提出了新的要求。为了定量化描述用水竞争现象,辨析了用水竞争力概念、内涵及其驱动因素,引入了用水竞争力指数（WCI）,并采用驱动增长率、刚性需水量、用水效益和用水紧缺程度四类指标构建了用水竞争力评价模型,以京津冀地区为例,定量分析得到京津冀地区2001—2015年农业、工业和生活分行业多年平均用水竞争力指数分别为0.09、0.17和0.56,其中生活用水竞争力指数最大并长期保持增长趋势,成为影响京津冀地区用水竞争力的主要行业,其次是工业用水竞争力指数,但呈波动性变化特征,农业用水竞争力指数最小但呈持续增加的趋势。     

Probabilistic heuristic estimates

Though they constitute the major knowledge source in problem-solving systems, no unified theory of heuristics has emerged. Pearl [15] defines heuristics as criteria, methods, or principles for deciding which among several alternative courses of action promises to be the most effective in order to achieve some goal. The absence of a more precise definition has impeded our efforts to understand, utilize, and discover heuristics. Another consequence is that problem-solving techniques which rely on heuristic knowledge cannot be relied upon to act rationally — in the sense of the normative theory of rationality.To provide a sound basis for BPS, the Bayesian Problem-Solver, we have developed a simple formal theory of heuristics, which is general enough to subsume traditional heuristic functions as well as other forms of problem-solving knowledge, and to straddle disparate problem domains. Probabilistic heuristic estimates represent a probabilistic association of sensations with prior experience — specifically, a mapping from observations directly to subjective probabilities which enables the use of theoretically principled mechanisms for coherent inference and decision making during problem-solving. This paper discusses some of the implications of this theory, and describes its successful application in BPS.This research was made possible by support from Heuristicrats, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Rand Corporation.     

Image quality evaluation for OLED-based smart-phone displays at various lighting conditions

The image quality of three organic light-emitting diode (OLED) based smart-phone displays was assessed at three levels of ambient lighting conditions corresponding to the darkroom, indoor and outdoor environment, respectively. Seven perceptual attributes, i.e., naturalness, colorfulness, brightness, contrast, sharpness, preference, and overall image quality (IQ), were evaluated in both standard dynamic range (SDR) and high dynamic range (HDR) mode via psychophysical experiments by rank order method, while readability was assessed only in SDR mode and gradation was investigated only in HDR mode. The experimental results demonstrate that, besides the color gamut, the tone reproduction curve is also an important factor affecting the colorfulness of mobile display in the two modes. Higher peak luminance would not mean better performance on brightness and contrast for HDR images, which is opposite to SDR mode. Further analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicates that the ranking results of all perceptual attributes are not significantly affected by the ambient lighting levels in both SDR and HDR modes.     

Authority updating: An expert authority evaluation algorithm considering post‐evaluation and power indices in social networks

In group assessment, the focus is on finding high‐authority experts to improve the reliability of assessment results. In this study, we propose an authority updating algorithm while considering the power and judgement reliability of an expert on the basis of social networks and post‐evaluations. A network power index is established and used to reflect the power of an expert while considering social networks. The measurement of the judgement reliability of an expert considers the post‐evaluation of the objects selected by experts, thereby more scientifically reflecting the reliability of experts. The analysis shows the following: although the social‐network structure influences the authority of experts, the influence weakens when the assessment group is a highly or even fully connected group; the network effect may increase the authority of some experts and reduce that of others, and it will weaken as the network connectivity increases; moreover, the judgement reliability and authority of an expert while considering post‐evaluation can encourage him/her to make fair assessments and strive to reduce his/her motivation and cognitive biases.     

XVM虚拟环境下并行程序的性能评测

该文引入speedup作为并行程序的性能评测指标,分析了并行程序在不同类型和不同数量的客户虚拟机中运行的性能差异,实验表明,MPI并行程序在xVM虚拟化环境中的运行性能接近非虚拟化本地主机的性能,在半虚拟化环境中的并行程序性能超过全虚拟化环境中的并行程序性能。     

Model-guided evaluation of consumer products

An evaluation of a consumer product is presented as an example of how ergonomics models can guide data collection and interpretation by non-ergonomists. The product, a new cooking pan, was compared with its earlier counterpart on performance and safety tests for specific features. Model-guided evaluations produced data which could be well-fitted by linear relationships, and measures derived from the data could be interpreted in physical terms by engineers. This is now the standard methodology for pan evaluation in the client company.     

The volume integral method of eddy-current modeling: Verification

The volume integral method of eddy-current modeling represents a flaw in metal as a set of electric dipoles located within volume elements or cells defining the flaw volume. Given this dipole distribution, impedance changes may be computed. The electric field of the dipole distribution is determined by an integral equation relating, by means of the electric field Green's tensor, the electric field due to the source to the total electric field in the flaw. The integral equation is solved by assuming that the total electric field is constant in each volume element, resulting in a matrix equation. The method has been programmed for use on a microcomputer. The method and computer program are verified using the analytical solution for a small spherical flaw and three sets of measured impedance data, measured by air-core coils along profiles overlying both surface-breaking and buried simulated flaws of known dimensions. Operating frequencies ranged between 900 and 4000 Hz. Generally agreement is good at lower frequencies ( 1000 Hz). At higher frequencies ( 4000 Hz), the agreement is not as good. This is thought to be due to the inability of the constant electric field approximation to model the steep electric field gradients present in the host metal at high frequency. The results are also sensitive to the method of computation of the electric field due to the source. Some improvements can and should be made to the method.     

Developing and evaluating language courseware

The paper sets out twenty proposals for the development and evaluation of Computer Assisted Language Learning (CALL) programs. These proposals emerge from special characteristics of language instruction and of the use of computers to assist in language instruction. We combine theoretically-based assumptions with empirical findings drawn from investigation of language courseware for Hebrew speakers in Israel. We first list four unique features of language instruction: (1) the object-language-meta-language distinction; (2) computer as written medium vs. language as primary spoken medium; (3) teaching of second language skills vs. linguistics; (4) the computer as an electronic tool vs. the computer as a cognitive entity simulating the speaker. We then show how these unique characteristics of language instruction (mother-tongue and foreign language) impose special proposals on language courseware. These proposals should be observed in the development of language courseware and in the evaluation of such programs. Clearly, these proposals integrate with general courseware proposals. Michal Ephratt (Ph.D., computational linguistics) completed post-doctoral studies at the University of Rochester. She has been on the staff of the Dept. of Hebrew Linguistics, University of Haifa, since 1988. Some of her publications include Root-Pattern Array: The Main Tool of Hebrew Word Formation (Hebrew University, 1985); and What's in a Joke? in Advances in Artificial Intelligence, Natural Language and Knowledge-based Systems (Springer-Verlag, 1990).This paper is based on work the author did as a consultant in the National Courseware Evaluation Department of the Ministry of Education. I wish to thank Esther Diamant, head of the department, for making the study possible.     

基于滤波的SAR影像去噪方法分析

根据SAR(Synthetic Aperture Radar)影像相干噪声的特点,对现在广泛应用的各种抑制噪声的滤波方法如均值滤波、Frost滤波、增强型Lee滤波、Lee滤波、中值滤波等进行分析,并提出适合本研究区影像的基于小波变换的分量滤波处理去噪方法,利用均值、标准差、平滑指数、PM值、信息熵和平均梯度等评价指标对各种滤波去噪后的影像质量进行评价,并对去噪效果进行对比分析,证明本文所采用的滤波方法对SAR影像噪声有很好的抑制作用,并且较好的保存了图像纹理信息。     

特种车辆维修空间可达性评价方法研究

可达性作为维修性的定性指标,缺少定量评价的方法。传统方法只针对装备的整体进行定性评价,不能对不同的等级维修和单个维修动作进行评价。通过对维修性设计中的结构性因素进行分析,得到了空间可达性的主要影响因素。在虚拟维修仿真平台的基础上对工具旋转角度和作业空间比进行了量化评分,给出了针对维修作业过程中单个零部件拆卸的空间可达性评价方法。单个动作评价方法为等级维修的整体空间可达性评价提供了数据基础,并为新型特种车辆的维修方案论证和研制的空间可达性评价提供了手段。