Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities

Summary In Bayesian inference and decision analysis, inferences and predictions are inherently probabilistic in nature. Scoring rules, which involve the computation of a score based on probability forecasts and what actually occurs, can be used to evaluate probabilities and to provide appropriate incentives for “good” probabilities. This paper review scoring rules and some related measures for evaluating probabilities, including decompositions of scoring rules and attributes of “goodness” of probabilites, comparability of scores, and the design of scoring rules for specific inferential and decision-making problems Read before the Spanish Statistical Society at a meeting organized by the Universitat de València on Tuesday, April 23, 1996     

消费需求与经济增长相互作用的实证研究

首先利用指数体系法，分析了经济增长对消费需求的影响作用；然后通过最终消费率及消费需求弹性系数的计算，说明消费需求是经济增长的助推器，最后提出了增加居民可支配收入，提高消费倾向，培育有利于消费需求增长的政策环境，以消费需求带动经济增长的对策建议。     

一种证券投资模型的收益风险分析

该文在假定证券收益率服从对数正态分布的前提下 ,导出了风险收益指标g1(z)及该指标的保险函数g2 (z)以及它们随收益率Z变化的规律 :即风险收益指标g1(z)随Z增大而减少 ,保险函数g2 (z)在(0 ,+∞ )有惟一极大值 ,并且在 (0 ,exp(μ +σ) )区间内取得。这些结果对证券投资决策有一定的参考意义     

基于政府收支分类改革的财政会计信息化建设

建立国库集中支付制度是为了加强对财政性资金的管理,强化预算支付行为的约束和监督,以从根本上提高财政资金的使用效率。政府收支分类科目是公共财政改革的“基础”,那么其必然也是财政部门赖以管理的核心工具——财政会计信息管理系统的“基础”。     

考虑供应链回购成本的—种复合回购策略设计

考虑供应链回购成本,提出一种新的复合策略,有机结合了回购策略和滞销补贴策略,并且证明了这种复合策略的系统期望利润大于等于回购策略或滞销补贴策略。     

"实质重于形式"原则在新会计制度中的体现

新《企业会计制度》根据“实质重于形式”原则规定了新的收入确认标准，由于确认标准的不同，会形成不同的应收账款和收入金额，产生不同的财务状况经营成果。在进行会计处理时，要重视会计专业分析和判断，不能仅仅根据经济业务的形式进行会计处理，而应当首先和重点考虑经济业务的实质，保证会计核算信息与客观经济事实相符。     

试论审美消费与重庆地区经济发展

通过审美消费经济的内涵和特征描述 ,从重庆消费市场现状论述本地区发展审美消费存在的优势和不足 ,提出解决问题的具体方法。论证发展审美消费的可行性 ,指出发展审美消费对促进经济增长的重大意义 ,为重庆经济转轨过程中调整产业结构和扩大消费市场提供思路     

Comparative Assessment of Software Quality Classification Techniques: An Empirical Case Study

Software metrics-based quality classification models predict a software module as either fault-prone (fp) or not fault-prone (nfp). Timely application of such models can assist in directing quality improvement efforts to modules that are likely to be fp during operations, thereby cost-effectively utilizing the software quality testing and enhancement resources. Since several classification techniques are available, a relative comparative study of some commonly used classification techniques can be useful to practitioners. We present a comprehensive evaluation of the relative performances of seven classification techniques and/or tools. These include logistic regression, case-based reasoning, classification and regression trees (CART), tree-based classification with S-PLUS, and the Sprint-Sliq, C4.5, and Treedisc algorithms. The use of expected cost of misclassification (ECM), is introduced as a singular unified measure to compare the performances of different software quality classification models. A function of the costs of the Type I (a nfp module misclassified as fp) and Type II (a fp module misclassified as nfp) misclassifications, ECM is computed for different cost ratios. Evaluating software quality classification models in the presence of varying cost ratios is important, because the usefulness of a model is dependent on the system-specific costs of misclassifications. Moreover, models should be compared and preferred for cost ratios that fall within the range of interest for the given system and project domain. Software metrics were collected from four successive releases of a large legacy telecommunications system. A two-way ANOVA randomized-complete block design modeling approach is used, in which the system release is treated as a block, while the modeling method is treated as a factor. It is observed that predictive performances of the models is significantly different across the system releases, implying that in the software engineering domain prediction models are influenced by the characteristics of the data and the system being modeled. Multiple-pairwise comparisons are performed to evaluate the relative performances of the seven models for the cost ratios of interest to the case study. In addition, the performance of the seven classification techniques is also compared with a classification based on lines of code. The comparative approach presented in this paper can also be applied to other software systems.     

UNIX平台上数据处理中内存桶模型的设计与实现

为了加快轨道交通票务清分处理的速度，减少结果数据入库时系统并发IO操作的教量，基于UNIX操作系统的共享内存和信号量机制，设计并实现了一种UNIX平台上用于票务清分处理的内存缓冲桶模型。采用嵌入式SQL语言实现教据的成批插入。描述了模型系统的各模块结构，说明了从票务清分、结果入库，以及因系统故障导致内存出错后的数据一致性检测和恢复的整个过程。     

论消除低收入贫困者群体

要建设全面小康社会,就必须消除低收入贫困者群体.我国现阶段低收入贫困者群体的存在是一个不容置疑、不能回避的社会问题,它的形成既有宏观原因,也有微观原因.因此,要采取多种反贫困措施,通过长期的努力,最终实现消除低收入贫困者群体.