后京都时代到来之前CDM项目开发运营的应对策略

后京都时代CDM市场的形势不明朗,我国CDM项目的主要参与方如何应对,关系到其切身利益.以实务操作为视角,各参与方迫切需要从把握碳市场的国际形势、加强项目开发运营管理能力建设、注重减排量购买协议中法律风险防范、关注国内碳交易市场建设等多方面入手,有效应对新形势下CDM项目的开发运营工作.     

Internalizing carbon costs in electricity markets: Using certificates in a load-based emissions trading scheme

Several western states have considered developing a regulatory approach to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the electric power industry, referred to as a load-based (LB) cap-and-trade scheme. A LB approach differs from the traditional source-based (SB) cap-and-trade approach in that the emission reduction obligation is placed upon Load Serving Entities (LSEs), rather than electric generators. The LB approach can potentially reduce the problem of emissions leakage, relative to a SB system. For any of these proposed LB schemes to be effective, they must be compatible with modern, and increasingly competitive, wholesale electricity markets. LSE's are unlikely to know the emissions associated with their power purchases. Therefore, a key challenge for a LB scheme is how to assign emissions to each LSE. This paper discusses the problems with one model for assigning emissions under a LB scheme and proposes an alternative, using unbundled Generation Emission Attribute Certificates. By providing a mechanism to internalize an emissions price signal at the generator dispatch level, the tradable certificate model addresses both these problems and provides incentives identical to a SB scheme.     

What has driven oil prices since 2000? A structural change perspective

This paper characterizes weekly international oil price fundamentals since 2000 by analyzing the transformation of the market mechanism based on structural change perspective. Using endogenously-determined break tests that allow for changes in both level and trend, we divide the price fluctuations in the international oil market after 2000 into three stages: “Relatively calm market” period (January 07, 2000, to March 12, 2004); the “Bubble accumulation” period (March 19, 2004, to June 06, 2008,); and the “Global economic crisis” period (June 13, 2008, to September 11, 2009). The results show the existence of structural breaks refutes the utility of investigation of the full sample period as a whole. And in different structural periods the main drivers of oil price changes and their way of influence and degree are significantly distinct. Then we demonstrate the evolving process of market mechanism since 2000. Through establishing comparative models, we also quantitatively measure the roles of speculation and episodic events in oil price fluctuations.     

The impact of the EU ETS on the sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies – Findings for Germany

This paper provides an overview of early changes in the sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies which have been triggered by the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS). Based on a broad definition of the sector, our research analyses the impact of the EU ETS on the four building blocks ‘knowledge and technologies’, ‘actors and networks’, ‘institutions’, and ‘demand’ by combining two streams of literature, namely systems of innovation and environmental economics. Our analysis for Germany is based on 42 exploratory interviews with experts in the field of the EU ETS, the power sector, and technological innovation. We find that the EU ETS mainly affects the rate and direction of technological change of power generation technologies within the large-scale, coal-based power generation technological regime, to which carbon capture technologies are added as a new technological trajectory. While this impact can be interpreted as the defensive behaviour of incumbents, the observed changes should not be underestimated. We argue that the EU ETS’ impact on corporate CO₂ culture and routines may prepare the ground for the transition to a low-carbon sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies.     

电力市场下日前多边交易模型及算法研究

针对电力市场条件下多边交易的特点,提出了以电网安全为约束、交易电量最大化为目标的多时段的日前多边交易数学模型。在该模型中,可以允许电厂和用户的报价为任意形式、任意段数的线性折线段构成。为了能够处理这种灵活的报价形式,该文采用虚拟机组(用户)的概念把多段折线报价分解成单段报价,并提出一个结合遗传算法和线性规划法各自优点的混合优化策略来求解该模型,其中遗传算法用来解决多时段虚拟机组(用户)的组合问题,线性规划法用于进行考虑线路阻塞的电量最优分配。算例结果验证了该文所提出模型和算法的正确性和有效性。     

FGD Capacity Prediction of Thermal Power Plants in China

Through analyzing the proportion of SO2 emission from thermal power plants in the nationwide SO2 emission in USA, Japan etc. developed countries, and the developmental course of thermal power installed capacity and the FGD capacity in USA, the FGD capacity of thermal power plants in China is forecasted from two angles. One is to predict FGD capacity in accordance with the policy in force in China. The other is to predict FGD capacity based upon the emission right trading policy. As compared, it is held that FGD equipment should be mainly installed on the large size units burning high sulfur coal according to the emission right trading policy. Such a method of work not only can economize large amount of investments and operation costs, but also can realize the same environmental effect.     

政府在排污权交易中的职能分析——以美国SO2排污权交易实践为例

市场机制可以使排污权得到优化配置，政府的宏观管理可以为市场创造一个良好的交易环境，保证市场的有效运行。本文将以美国的SO2排污权交易实践为例，分析政府在整个交易过程中的职能。按照排污权交易流程和制度要求，政府在整个排污权交易体系中的职能大致分为市场建立之前的规划职能和市场建立之后的执行监督职能。     

上海发电电力市场的运营模式

上海发电电力市场是我国电力工业“厂网分开，竞价上网”的首批试点成果之一，已取得重要的工作成效。文中就上海发电电力市场的建立、现货运作规则、电能量与辅助服务的经济补偿细则等进行了简要介绍，同时提出需要继续解决的一些问题，以期为电力市场新型理论和方法的研究提供进一步的研究方向。     

Economic efficiency of coordinated multilateral trades in electricity markets

This paper presents economic efficiency evaluation of electricity markets operating on the basis of a coordinated multilateral trading concept. The evaluation accounts for the overall costs of power generation, network losses, and system and unit constraints. We assume a non-collusive oligopolistic competition. An iterative Cournot model is used to characterize the competitive behavior of suppliers. A supplier maximizes the profit of each of his generating units while taking rivals' generation as given. Time span is over multiple hours. This leads to a mixed integer non-linear programming problem. We use the augmented Lagrangian approach to solve iteratively for globally optimal schedules. An IEEE 24-bus, 8-supplier, and 17-customer test system is used for illustration. The results show that such a market at times of light demands exhibits little market power, and at times of large demands exhibits a great deal of market power. This contrasts with the PCMI and HHI concentration measures, which give fixed measurement values of market power. The results of two-year (730 round) market simulations show a range of deadweight efficiency loss between 0.9 and 6% compared to that of PoolCo which results in a range between 0.5 and 10% for the same test case.     

分布式处理的期货交易技术分析模型

介绍了ORACLE 6.0分布式数据库管理系统和在其上开发的一个分布式的期货交易技术分析模型,阐述了该系统的特点及内部实现。