A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments.     

Predicting Acute Renal Failure after Cardiac Surgery: Validation and Re‐definition of a Risk‐Stratification Algorithm

Background:  Acute renal failure (ARF) after cardiac surgery is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, irrespective of the need for dialysis. Previous studies have attempted to identify predictors of ARF and develop risk stratification algorithms. This study aims to validate the algorithm in an independent cohort of patients that includes a significant proportion of female and black patients and compares two different definitions of renal outcome.
Methods:  A large single center cardiac surgery database was examined (n, 24,660; 1993–2000) which included 29.9% females and 3.7% black patients. Post‐operative ARF was defined as: a) ARF requiring dialysis, b) > 50% reduction in creatinine clearance relative to baseline or requiring dialysis. Clinical variables related to baseline renal function and cardiovascular disease were used in recursive partitioning analysis for both outcome definitions. Chi‐square goodness of fit analysis was performed to validate the algorithm.
Results:  The frequency of post‐operative ARF requiring dialysis ranged between 0.5 and 15.5% based on the risk categories with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.78. Using the more inclusive definition of ARF, the frequency was significantly higher ranging from 2.6 to 25%(P < 0.001) with an area under ROC curve of 0.65.
Conclusions:  The renal risk stratification algorithm is valid in predicting post‐operative ARF in an independent cohort of patients, well represented by differences in gender and race. Since the need for dialysis remains subjective, a more objective and inclusive definition of ARF may help in identifying a larger number of patients 'at‐risk'.     

Time and cost securing in complex large-scale projects

Meeting time and cost objectives in complex projects involves specific problems and risks. An attempt is made to analyse the components of total cost increase of a project caused by time delay. An outline is given as to how these considerations can be used to estimate cost increases in investors' decision situations as well as to ascertain fair contractual penalties and claims for compensation and for the evaluation of justified project acceleration costs.     

工程项目投标报价中的风险分析

针对目前国内的招投标制度和方法,投标报价风险成为企业能否中标的最大风险,报价在招标中占的分数权重在40%~60%之间,对能否中标起到决定性的作用。从总承包商自身能力及有意识行为、总承包模式3个方面对工程项目中的投标报价风险进行了分析。     

Social dominance mediates the association of testosterone and neurobehavioral disinhibition with risk for substance use disorder.

This investigation determined the influence of testosterone and neurobehavioral disinhibition (ND) on risk for substance use disorder (SUD). Testosterone level during puberty was hypothesized to promote social dominance associated with norm-violating behavior that, in turn, predisposes individuals to use of illicit drugs and, subsequently, SUD. Using a prospective paradigm, the authors recruited 179 boys (mean age=11.62 years, SD=0.88) and followed up when participants were ages 12-14, 16, 19, and 22. Results indicated that social dominance/norm-violating behavior (SD/NVB) at age 16 mediated the association between testosterone level (ages 12-14) and SUD (age 22). In addition, SD/NVB mediated the association between ND and SUD. These findings suggest that development of SUD is influenced by androgen-dependent and neurobehavioral processes via a social motivational style characterized by SD/NVB. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Youth gambling behaviors: An examination of the role of resilience.

The study of resilient children has overturned many deficit-focused models concerning the ontogenesis of children raised in adversity. This study explored the relationship between risk and protective factors, resilience, and youth gambling behavior. More specifically, this study examined the relative contribution of various risk and protective domains in relation to problem gambling behavior and examined whether youth identified as resilient (high risk exposure- high internalized protection) were as likely as those identified as vulnerable (high risk exposure-low internalized protection) to engage in excessive gambling behavior. The sample consisted of 1,273 students ages 12 to 19. The findings demonstrated that risk and protective factors each provide a unique contribution to the prediction model of gambling problems. Resilient and vulnerable youth differed significantly in their self-reported gambling severity. As well, resilient youth were not statistically distinguishable from low-risk exposure groups in terms of their gambling severity. Findings are interpreted with respect to resilience and prevention research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

School-Based Child-Centered Play Therapy with Hispanic Children: Outcomes and Cultural Consideration.

Hispanic children are the fastest growing segment of the population. Numerous factors place them at-risk for school success. This study examined the effects of Child-Centered Play Therapy (CCPT) compared to a curriculum-based small group intervention with 29 Hispanic children referred for school counseling due to behavior problems. Children were assigned to treatment groups by random drawing within grade levels. Treatment was provided by Hispanic bilingual counselors. Statistical analysis revealed that, according to parent report, children receiving CCPT showed statistically significant decreases in externalizing behavior problems, compared to the curriculum-based treatment group. Effect size calculations revealed that CCPT demonstrated a large treatment effect on externalizing behavior problems and a moderate treatment effect on internalizing behavior problems. Cultural considerations and recommendations for practice and future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

农业重组微生物生物安全研究进展

综述了近年来农业重组微生物的研究现状和进展 ,详细介绍农业重组微生物环境释放的监控方法以及对环境的冲击作用 ,对一些有关生物安全研究的热点问题进行了探讨     

Perceived risk for influenza in veterans with spinal cord injuries and disorders.

Objective: Guided by the extended parallel process model (EPPM), the objective was to assess control processes dominant in influenza behavior decisions. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Results: Response rate was 31% (n=968). Regarding influenza risk, 59% were in danger control. Those in fear control were more likely to report influenza infection (p=.000). In the nonvaccinated, those in fear control were more likely to indicate not knowing where to get the vaccine (p=.016) and that it was unavailable (p=.027), and those in danger control believed they did not need it (p=.023). Zero critical values were more likely to indicate that no health provider recommended the shot (p=.002). Conclusions: Most perceived efficacy to be stronger than threat related to influenza; according to the EPPM, they are aware of their risk but recognize their ability to avert it. For those in danger control, messages should focus on increasing perceptions of severity and susceptibility to positively affect behavior change. For those in fear control, messages should focus on efficacy only. With a critical value of zero, no threat is induced, and a high-threat/high-efficacy approach should be taken. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A theory of reservation-dwelling American Indian alcohol use risk.

The authors present a theory for understanding risk for problem drinking among reservation-dwelling American Indians. The theory offers an overall framework for understanding the risk process for this group. It considers the distinction between factors that influence mean levels of American Indian problem drinking and factors that influence individual differences in American Indian drinking. It proposes important contextual differences between reservation-dwelling American Indians and Caucasians that may help explain the higher mean levels of American Indian problem drinking. The theory further holds that, within the high mean level of problem drinking characteristic of many American Indian reservations, individual differences in problem drinking can be explained by very similar personality and learning factors as those that influence problem-drinking levels for other ethnic groups. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)