Structural reliability optimization using an efficient safety index calculation procedure

The objective of this paper is to conduct reliability-based structural optimization in a multidisciplinary environment. An efficient reliability analysis is developed by expanding the limit functions in terms of intermediate design variables. The design constraints are approximated using multivariate splines in searching for the optimum. The reduction in computational cost realized in safety index calculation and optimization are demonstrated through several structural problems. This paper presents safety index computation, analytical sensitivity analysis of reliability constraints and optimization using truss, frame and plate examples.     

基于决策树技术的日前市场清算电价预测

以澳大利亚昆士兰州电力市场为背景,采用决策树技术,建立了提前日的电力市场清算电价预测模型。详细介绍了决策树技术的原理及其在电价预测中的实现方法,考虑了非电价因素对电价预测的影响。实际结果表明该方法具有良好的预测效果和直观性。     

基于粗糙集的生产环境数据挖掘系统方法

针对粗糙集确定性模型缺乏处理不确定信息的特点，Z．Pawlak等提出了粗糙集的概率模型，但该模型没有包括如何处理生产数据集纷繁复杂数据的方法，因此提出了应用粗糙集于生产环境数据挖掘的一种系统方法，并应用UCI的数据集对该方法进行了检验，实验结果体现了它的性能与有效性。     

中国新闻纸需求量灰色预测

针对我国新闻纸需求量大且具有不确定性的特点,运用具有适用性广,预测准确率高等优点的灰色系统理论预测了我国新闻纸需求量,建立了需求量模型并对该模型的精度进行了检验。预测结果表明,该模型用于预测我国新闻纸需求量具有一定的可行性和有效性。     

地质超前预报和动态施工在隧洞施工中的应用

通过在直峰架洞施工过程中，地质超首预报与隧洞动态施工的结合，将国际岩体质量分级到生产实践中，针对不同级别的岩级，应用相应的施工方案，以达到为隧洞篱工总结经验的目的。     

A Study on the Model of Forecasting System about the Actual Telephone Occupation in the Lead Development

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F_q上矩阵秩的概率分布及其渐近性质

本文给出了Ｆｑ（ｑ为素数）上ｋ×ｎ随机矩阵秩的概率分布，并详细讨论了方阵和高矩阵这两类特别重要的矩阵的秩分布，揭示了这两类矩阵秩分布的渐近性质。     

Comparisons of Urban Travel Forecasts Prepared with the Sequential Procedure and a Combined Model

Detailed analyses and comparisons of urban travel forecasts prepared by applying the state-of-practice sequential procedure and the solution of a combined network equilibrium model are presented. The sequential procedure for solving the trip distribution, mode choice and assignment problems with feedback is the current practice in most transportation planning agencies, although its important limitations are well known. The solution of a combined model, in contrast, results from a single mathematical formulation, which ensures a well-converged and consistent result. Using a real network, several methods for solving the sequential procedure with feedback are compared to the solution of the combined model ESTRAUS. The results of these methods are shown to have various levels of instability. The paper concludes with a call for a new paradigm of travel forecasting practice based on an internally consistent model formulation that can be solved to a level of precision suitable for comparing alternative scenarios.     

Identification environment and robust forecasting for nonlinear time series

In this paper, the methods of time series for nonlinearity are briefly surveyed, with particular attention paid to a new test design based on a neural network specification. The proposed integrated expert system contains two main components: an identification environment and a robust forecasting design. The identification environment can be viewed as a integrated dynamic design in which cognitive capabilities arise as a direct consequence of their self-organizational properties. The integrated framework used for discussing the similarities and differences in the nonlinear time series behavior is presented. Moreover, its performance in prediction proves to be superior than the former work. For the investigation of robust forecasting, we perform a simulation study to demonstrate the applicability and the forecasting performance.