On calibration error of randomized forecasting algorithms

It has been recently shown that calibration with an error less than Δ>0$\Delta >0$ is almost surely guaranteed with a randomized forecasting algorithm, where forecasts are obtained by random rounding the deterministic forecasts up to Δ$\Delta$. We show that this error cannot be improved for a vast majority of sequences: we prove that, using a probabilistic algorithm, we can effectively generate with probability close to one a sequence “resistant” to any randomized rounding forecasting with an error much smaller than Δ$\Delta$. We also reformulate this result by means of a probabilistic game.     

Predictive models for emission of hydrogen powered car using various artificial intelligent tools

This paper investigates the use of artificial intelligent models as virtual sensors to predict relevant emissions such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, unburnt hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen for a hydrogen powered car. The virtual sensors are developed by means of application of various Artificial Intelligent (AI) models namely; AI software built at the University of Tasmania, back-propagation neural networks with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems. These predictions are based on the study of qualitative and quantitative effects of engine process parameters such as mass airflow, engine speed, air-to-fuel ratio, exhaust gas temperature and engine power on the harmful exhaust gas emissions. All AI models show good predictive capability in estimating the emissions. However, excellent accuracy is achieved when using back-propagation neural networks with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm in estimating emissions for various hydrogen engine operating conditions with the predicted values less than 6% of percentage average root mean square error.     

一种Agent的偏好系统及其建立

受到Agent偏好模型的启发,提出了一个新的描述人们行为的偏好系统称为AF系统,它将Michael Freund的理性偏好推理与Adams提出的经典的归纳逻辑和概率逻辑相结合,即借助经典的逻辑系统,把人们的逻辑推理和以人们的偏好取向为基础的常识性推理以及以主观愿望为基础的意向推理结合在一起成为一个有机系统,并且在这个系统下提出Agent的理性偏好的建立方法以及推理步骤.最后给出一个实例,说明它能根据人们的部分愿望,全面估计人们的偏好走向,而且一旦人们的基本态度有所转向,偏好结构也可做相应调整,无需做根本改动,因此它具有鲁棒性和实用价值.     

基于运动方向预测的快速运动估计算法

利用序列图像的相邻块运动矢量的高度相关性和运动矢量的中心偏移特性,提出一种基于运动方向预测的快速运动估计算法。设计4种方向性模板,根据参考运动矢量预测出图像块的运动情况,根据不同的运动方向选择对应的方向性模板进行搜索。实验结果表明,该算法在速度和准确性方面都优于传统的快速运动估计算法。     

基于改进基因表达式程序设计的股票指数预测

介绍基因表达式程序设计方法的基本原理,针对股票指数分析与预测问题,在经典的GEP算法基础上,提出一种基于动态变异算子的改进的GEP算法——IGEP算法,动态变异算子随着进化代数和染色体所含基因数目不同而变化,从而加快了GEP的收敛速度和精确度,对算法进行了复杂度和收敛性分析。设计一种基于IGEP的股票指数分析与预测算法,数值实验结果表明,该算法优于经典GEP算法,具有较广泛的通用性。     

基于灰色关联分析法的软件缺陷类型预测

灰色关联分析法是一种描述元素之间影响程度的分析法,适合于小项目数据集。小项目数据集制约着传统的软件缺陷类型的预测方法,使得预测的结果往往不够准确和可靠。因此在灰色关联分析法的基础上提出了特征子集选择、异常工程检测以及软件缺陷类型预测3种方法。通过实验的分析对比,验证了在灰色关联分析法的基础上,提出的软件缺陷类型预测方法的准确性和可靠性。     

Admission control for a responsive distributed middleware using decision trees to model run-time parameters

The software in modern systems has become too complex to make accurate predictions about their performance under different configurations. Real-time or even responsiveness requirements cannot be met because it is not possible to perform admission control for new or changing tasks if we cannot tell how their execution affects the other tasks already running. Previously, we proposed a resource-allocation middleware that manages the execution of tasks in a complex distributed system with real-time requirements. The middleware behavior can be modeled depending on the configuration of the tasks running, so that the performance of any given configuration can be calculated. This makes it possible to have admission control in such a system, but the model requires knowledge of run-time parameters. We propose the utilization of machine-learning algorithms to obtain the model parameters, and be able to predict the system performance under any configuration, so that we can provide a full admission control mechanism for complex software systems. In this paper, we present such an admission control mechanism, we measure its accuracy in estimating the parameters of the model, and we evaluate its performance to determine its suitability for a real-time or responsive system.     

Prediction-based Iterative Learning Control (PILC) for Uncertain Dynamic Nonlinear Systems Using System Identification Technique

Prediction-based Iterative Learning Control (PILC) is proposed in this paper for a class of time varying nonlinear uncertain systems. Convergence of PILC is analyzed and the uniform boundedness of tracking error is obtained in the presence of uncertainty and disturbances. It is shown that the learning algorithm not only guarantees the robustness, but also improves the learning rate despite the presence of disturbances and slowly varying desired trajectories in succeeding iterations. The effectiveness of the proposed PILC is presented by simulations.     

基于矢量模型的语音线性预测研究

研究语音参数线性预测的并行处理问题。通过把语音源序列的相邻样本分组能够构成一个均方差平稳的语音向量自回归序列,在Hilbert空间中运用正交投影原理导出具有高度并行处理能力的一预测编码策略,由此可推出参数线性预测的并行处理自适应算法。同传统格型算法相比,这种算法的计算复杂度及存贮量有明显改善。最后通过仿真运算检测了算法的性能。     

BP神经网络在剩余油分布预测中的应用研究

我国多数油田经过一次、二次采油后,仅能采出地下总储量的30%左右,这意味着有60%～70%的剩余石油仍然残留在地下成为剩余油。加强剩余油分布规律研究、提高石油采收率不仅有着可观的经济效应,而且关系到国家石油战略的安全。本研究应用神经网络的原理,基于BP网络使用MATLAB语言建立一个剩余油分布的预测系统。该系统通过学习在地理坐标和孔隙度之间建立一个非线性函数关系,以此来预测任何区域的孔隙度,再通过孔隙度与剩余油饱和度之间的关系达到剩余油分布预测的目的。