基于耦合概率密度方法的河渠突发水污染溯源

以水动力计算为基础,依据正向浓度概率密度与逆向位置概率密度的耦合关系,构建了以污染源位置和释放时间为参数的相关性优化模型,并利用微分进化算法实现了模型的求解。在此基础上,根据污染物正向浓度概率密度函数构建优化模型确定了污染物强度。耦合概率密度方法将突发水污染溯源问题转换为两个最小值优化问题,原理简单,求解方便,实现了污染源参数的解耦。在求解优化模型时,将梯度概念引入到微分进化算法中,提高了搜索效率。将所提出的溯源方法运用于仿真实验案例以及南水北调中线应急示范工程实例,结果表明,模型溯源效果好、模拟精度高,溯源结果对于河渠突发水污染事件应急处置具有一定指导意义。     

新疆汉水泉地区地下水环境背景值计算

以新疆汉水泉地区为研究区,依据其水文地质条件,将其划分为两个相对独立的水文地质单元——库木苏洼地和汉水泉洼地,采集该地区39组地下水水样,研究该地区的地下水环境背景值。采用格鲁布斯检验法剔除采集样本中的异常数据,库木苏洼地剔除异常指标1个,汉水泉洼地剔除异常指标13个。采用夏皮洛—威尔克检验法判断地下水化学组分含量频数分布类型,结果表明:库木苏洼地和汉水泉洼地以正态分布和对数正态分布居多,偏态分布较少。通过对整个汉水泉地区地下水组分含量的分析,得出汉水泉地区地下水环境的背景值,分析结果表明:研究区微量元素的检出率不高,表示其受污染程度较低。     

贵州岩溶塌陷分布及其影响因素分析

贵州省处于东亚岩溶区中心,具有岩溶最复杂、类型最齐全、分布面积最大的特点,岩溶塌陷是贵州的主要地质灾害之一。以贵州省2011~2013年重点地区重大地质灾害统计资料以及岩溶分布规律为依据,从地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、地下水动态变化等方面对岩溶塌陷的影响因素进行了分析,认为岩溶塌陷与上述因素密切相关。其结论对于防灾、减灾、避灾具有借鉴作用。     

嘉陵江汇流特性统计及分形分析

嘉陵江汇流特性对长江重庆河段的泥沙运动与河床演变影响重大。根据1955~2011年的原型实测水文资料,通过数理统计方法,分析了嘉陵江汇流比的变化趋势和频率分布特性,应用分形几何方法研究了日汇流过程曲线特征,提出采用分形汇流比RD全面量化复杂汇流过程,并探讨了RD的参数构成及变化规律。结果表明：嘉陵江日汇流比R的变幅随北碚站流量Q的增加而逐渐缩窄;各级流量对应的汇流比区间频率具有中间大、两端小的分布特性,累积频率分布曲线呈现两端平缓、中间陡峻的变化特点;分形汇流比RD随流量的增大而增大,全年RD与汛期RD的变化规律基本一致,汛期汇流过程对全年汇流特征影响显著。     

蜗壳及尾水管周边混凝土轴向布筋拟合技术

针对水电站厂房中复杂结构的布筋难题,提出了蜗壳及尾水管渐变段曲面三维布筋的实现方法。对混凝土渐变段轴向钢筋采用基于放样的离散法来构造。根据环向钢筋离散点的曲率大小,分别选用直线、圆弧及样条曲线来拟合,其中重点介绍了曲率计算及不同线型的拟合方法。在此基础上开发了能用于蜗壳及尾水管布筋设计的三维CAD系统。该系统具有三维钢筋创建及二维施工图和信息表生成功能,显著提高了复杂结构的图纸质量和设计效率。     

基于随机动力学的边坡安全坡角估值方法探讨

对于广泛分布大量裂隙的岩质边坡,有些并无明显的软弱面,裂隙的分布方位对边坡稳定性就起着控制作用,但在实际工作中,往往存在安全坡角取值不准确的问题。传统方法是找到边坡内部裂隙的优势分组,应用赤平投影方法估计边坡安全坡角。随机动力学稳定性分析认为,最危险滑动面的滑动方向为边坡的倾向方向,岩壁上测量出的每一条裂隙都是随机的,对边坡的失稳都会造成一定的影响,裂隙可形成单一滑动面破坏或裂隙之间可随机组合形成楔形体进而对边坡造成破坏。以大连港东换流站的开挖边坡为实例,采用随机动力学方法与赤平投影分析相结合进行对比分析,给出合理的安全坡角。     

上海市不同历时暴雨组合概率研究

基于上海市徐家汇站1960—2011年的日降雨资料,分析上海市年最大1d和3d降水量年际变化和年代际变化特性;择优选择GH Copula函数构建了年最大1 d与3 d降水量的联合分布模型,并推算它们的同现重现期和组合风险概率。结果表明:年最大1 d和3 d降水随时间呈增加趋势,自20世纪70年代开始其均值随年代增加;年最大1 d和3 d设计暴雨同频遭遇风险率在75%~85%之间,且同现风险率随年最大1 d设计暴雨值增大而增加。在设计上海市防洪排涝标准时若考虑最大1 d和3 d降水量的遭遇组合,有利于提升防洪排涝能力,保障防洪安全。     

Performance comparison of reduced models for leak detection in water distribution networks

This paper presents a methodology for comparing the performance of model-reduction strategies to be used with a diagnostic methodology for leak detection in water distribution networks. The goal is to find reduction strategies that are suitable for error-domain model falsification, a model based data interpretation methodology. Twelve reduction strategies are derived from five strategy categories. Categories differ according to the manner in which nodes are selected for deletion. A node is selected for deletion according to: (1) the diameter of the pipes; (2) the number of pipes linked to a node; (3) the angle of the pipes in the case of two-pipe nodes; (4) the distribution of the water demand; and, (5) a pair-wise combination of some categories.The methodology is illustrated using part of a real network. Performance is evaluated first by judging the equivalency of the reduced network with the initial network (before the application of any reduction procedure) and secondly, by assessing the compatibility with the diagnostic methodology. The results show that for each reduction strategy the equivalency of networks is verified. Computational time can be reduced to less than 20% of the non-reduced network in the best case. Results of diagnostic performance show that the performance decreases when using reduced networks. The reduction strategy with the best diagnostic performance is that based on the angle of two-pipe nodes, with an angle threshold of 165°. In addition, the sensitivity of the performance of the reduced networks to variation in leak intensity is evaluated. Results show that the reduction strategies where the number of nodes is significantly reduced are the most sensitive.Finally this paper describes a Pareto analysis that is used to select the reduction strategy that is a good compromise between reduction of computational time and performance of the diagnosis. In this context, the extension strategy is the most attractive.     

A computational software tool for the minimization of costs and greenhouse gas emissions associated with water distribution systems

While evolutionary algorithms have been applied extensively to water resource problems, there remains a need to unify and consolidate computational and software approaches to solving these problems. In order to facilitate this for the minimization of costs and greenhouse gas emissions of water distribution systems, the water distribution cost-emissions nexus (WCEN) computational software framework is introduced in this paper. The software is freely available and can be easily modified in order to facilitate consistency of modeling, simulation and evaluation within different research studies. In addition, it enables consideration of the time-dependent variation of operational choices, such as emissions factors, electricity tariffs and water demands, which has not been done previously. The utility of the framework is demonstrated for a case study, the results of which show that consideration of such variations can significantly affect optimal design and operational decisions, as well as their costs and GHG emissions.     

基于分布参数的煤矿井下直流杂散电流研究

直流杂散电流是引起井下瓦斯爆炸的重要原因之一,对煤矿安全生产具有很大威胁。针对这一问题,从杂散电流的产生机理着手,建立了井下直流杂散电流的分布参数模型;在该模型的基础上,仿真分析了各个参数对杂散电流的影响,得出了如下结论:随着机车电流的增加、供电区间的延长及轨道电阻的增大,杂散电流也会线性增加,可通过减小机车电流、缩短供电区间长度及减小轨道电阻来减小杂散电流;轨道与大地间过渡电阻低于安全值时会造成杂散电流急剧增大,保证轨道与地之间的绝缘是限制杂散电流的一种有效措施。