Generation expansion planning in electricity markets: A novel framework based on dynamic stochastic MPEC

This paper presents a novel framework for generation expansion planning (GEP) of restructured power systems under uncertainty in a multi-period horizon, which includes generation investment from a price maker perspective. The investment problem is modeled as a bi-level optimization problem. The first level problem includes decisions related to investment in order to maximize total profit in the planning horizon. The second level problem consists of maximizing social welfare where the power market is cleared. Rival uncertainties on offering and investment are modeled using sets of scenarios. The bi-level optimization problem is then converted to a dynamic stochastic MPEC and represented as a mixed integer linear program (MILP) after linearization. The proposed framework is examined on a typical six-bus power network, MAZANDARAN regional electric company (MREC) transmission network as an area of IRAN interconnected power system and IEEE RTS 24-bus network. Simulation results confirm that the proposed framework can be a useful tool for analyzing the behavior of investments in electricity markets.     

A practical assessment of risk-averse approaches in production lot-sizing problems

ABSTRACT

This paper presents an empirical assessment of four state-of-the-art risk-averse approaches to deal with the capacitated lot-sizing problem under stochastic demand. We analyse two mean-risk models based on the semideviation and on the conditional value-at-risk risk measures, and alternate first and second-order stochastic dominance approaches. The extensive computational experiments based on different instances characteristics and on a case-study suggest that CVaR exhibits a good trade-off between risk and performance, followed by the semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance approach. For all approaches, enforcing risk-aversion helps to reduce the cost-standard deviation substantially, which is usually accomplished via increasing production rates. Overall, we can say that very risk-averse decision-makers would be willing to pay an increased price to have a much less risky solution given by CVaR. In less risk-averse settings, though, semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance can be appealing alternatives to provide significantly more stable production planning costs with a marginal increase of the expected costs.     

Flame characteristics of premixed H2-air mixtures explosion venting in a spherical container through a duct

The explosion venting duct can effectively reduce the hazard degree of a gas explosion and conduct the venting energy to the safe area. To investigate the flame quantitative propagation law of explosion venting with a duct, the effects of hydrogen fraction and explosion venting duct length on jet flame propagation characteristics of premixed H₂-air mixtures were analyzed through experiment and simulation. The experiment results under initial conditions of room temperature and 1 atm show that when hydrogen fraction was high enough, part of the unburned hydrogen was mixed with air again to reach an ignitable concentration, resulting in the secondary combustion was easier produced and the duration of the secondary flame increased. With the increase of venting duct length, the flame front distance and propagation velocity increased. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of pressure field and temperature field, and the propagation process and mechanism of the flame venting with a duct were analyzed using FLUENT software. The variation of the pressure wave and the pressure reflection oscillation law in the explosion venting duct was captured. Therefore, in the industrial explosion venting design with a duct, the hazard caused by the coupling of venting pressure and venting flame under different fractions should be considered comprehensively.     

Improved Input and State Estimation for Linear Stochastic Systems with Direct Feedthrough

This paper is concerned with the problem of joint input and state estimation for linear stochastic systems with direct feedthrough. Based on the fact that each unknown input between any two time steps is always bounded, a novel improved algorithm is proposed. Compared with existing results, this algorithm can effectively enhance estimation accuracy. Moreover, the stability of the algorithm is also discussed. Finally, an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

Regulation of sensory nerve conduction velocity of human bodies responding to annual temperature variations in natural environments

The extensive research interests in environmental temperature can be linked to human productivity / performance as well as comfort and health; while the mechanisms of physiological indices responding to temperature variations remain incompletely understood. This study adopted a physiological sensory nerve conduction velocity (SCV) as a temperature‐sensitive biomarker to explore the thermoregulatory mechanisms of human responding to annual temperatures. The measurements of subjects’ SCV (over 600 samples) were conducted in a naturally ventilated environment over all four seasons. The results showed a positive correlation between SCV and annual temperatures and a Boltzmann model was adopted to depict the S‐shaped trend of SCV with operative temperatures from 5°C to 40°C. The SCV increased linearly with operative temperatures from 14.28°C to 20.5°C and responded sensitively for 10.19°C‐24.59°C, while tended to be stable beyond that. The subjects’ thermal sensations were linearly related to SCV, elaborating the relation between human physiological regulations and subjective thermal perception variations. The findings reveal the body SCV regulatory characteristics in different operative temperature intervals, thereby giving a deeper insight into human autonomic thermoregulation and benefiting for built environment designs, meantime minimizing the temperature‐invoked risks to human health and well‐being.     

Study on wax precipitation characteristics of wax deposit in pipes

Wax deposit properties are a significant concern in pipeline pigging during waxy crude oil transportation. In the present work, the impacts of flow conditions and oil properties on the wax precipitation characteristics of wax deposits are investigated. A flow loop apparatus was developed to conduct wax deposition experiments using four crude oils collected from different field pipes. The differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) technique was employed to observe the wax precipitation characteristics of crude oil and wax deposit. The results show that the wax content and the wax appearance temperature (WAT) of the deposits increase with shear stress and radial temperature gradient, and decrease with radial wax molecule concentration gradient near the pipe wall. The DSC tests on the wax deposits revealed that the deposit wax content is strongly correlated to the oil wax content. Furthermore, an empirical correlation was developed to predict the wax content and the WAT of the wax deposit. Verification of the empirical correlation using the different oils indicated that the average relative error of the wax content prediction and average absolute error of WAT prediction were 13.2% and 3.6°C, respectively.     

影响煤层气开发效果的地质因素再认识

地质特征认识对煤层气开发效果起着重要作用。在资源特征相差不大的情况下,发现煤层气相邻井的产量差异仍较大。排除工程因素后,通过选取8类地质参数,细致比对了保德区块低产井与邻井的参数特征,筛查出其关键因素为煤层微幅构造与顶板封盖条件,其中以微幅构造为主。据此,重新认识并划分出区块新的次生褶皱背斜单元、向斜单元和斜坡单元,获得了不同次生褶皱构造单元的开发特征。结果表明,高、低产井分布与次生褶皱背斜、向斜相关性高达92%。其中:高产井主要分布在次生褶皱背斜变化较缓、呈隆起状的“平台”,且煤层顶板以泥岩、碳质泥岩为主,封盖性较好;低产井主要分布在次生褶皱向斜,同一井台各井开发效果差异表现为从向斜条带轴部—向斜条带内—向斜条带外的煤层气井平均单井产量不断增加,到向斜轴部的距离大于向斜曲率半径73.5%的范围为主力产气区,小于向斜曲率半径40.0%范围为产水主力区。这对煤层气新井部署、生产管理、开发调整等,具有一定的指导意义。     

Systematic convergence of nonlinear stochastic estimators on the Special Orthogonal Group SO(3)

This paper introduces two novel nonlinear stochastic attitude estimators developed on the Special Orthogonal Group with the tracking error of the normalized Euclidean distance meeting predefined transient and steady‐state characteristics. The tracking error is confined to initially start within a predetermined large set such that the transient performance is guaranteed to obey dynamically reducing boundaries and decrease smoothly and asymptotically to the origin in probability from almost any initial condition. The proposed estimators produce accurate attitude estimates with remarkable convergence properties using measurements obtained from low‐cost inertial measurement units. The estimators proposed in continuous form are complemented by their discrete versions for the implementation purposes. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed estimators against uncertain measurements and large initialization error, whether in continuous or discrete form.     

海面油膜的偏振反射特性仿真实验

为了给海面溢油污染识别检测提供理论基础,根据菲涅尔反射公式的偏振反射系数,结合偏振双向反射率因子和粗糙海面的概率密度分布函数,建立了完善的pBRDF模型,仿真在不同太阳入射角度、不同探测器观测角度以及不同海面风速风向等条件下海水和油膜的偏振反射分布函数。结果表明:海水和油膜太阳天顶角为53°和56°时P偏振反射率分别为1.0×10^-5和2.5×10^-5,S偏振反射率随着太阳天顶角的增加而增加;海面风速越大偏振反射率峰值越小;海面风向只改变pBRDF的空间位置;海水和油膜线偏振度空间分布有明显差异。搭建实验平台相机以40°拍摄时,得出海水和油膜的线偏振度分别在0.2~0.4, 0.5~0.7之间,同时表明利用偏振探测获取目标场景的偏振度和偏振角图可提高图像质量。     

基于云概率密度分布估计的大坝监测数据分析

大坝运行监测易受自然环境和监测条件影响，存在时间和空间上的变异性，监测数据具有不确定性。以云理论的随机性和不确定性分析方法为基础，并与空间数据辐射思想相结合，建立了云滴概率密度分布估计模型，然后导出云概率密度分布函数，依据样本监测数据推求母体空间数据的分布特征，并设计了基于逆向云算法云变换的计算程序。分析陆浑水库1979~1999年测压管监测数据和位移变形数据的云概率密度分布特征和云数字特征，得出了20 a来大坝的数据分布特征和运行状态。监测数据分析结果表明，云概率密度分布估计不仅能有效合理地分析大坝的运行状态，而且能够依据云数字特征来判断监测状态和监测环境的异常变化。 