A bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) for stock price prediction: Case study of DAX stock price

Creating an intelligent system that can accurately predict stock price in a robust way has always been a subject of great interest for many investors and financial analysts. Predicting future trends of financial markets is more remarkable these days especially after the recent global financial crisis. So traders who access to a powerful engine for extracting helpful information throw raw data can meet the success. In this paper we propose a new intelligent model in a multi-agent framework called bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) to predict stock price. The model performs in a four layer multi-agent framework to predict eight years of DAX stock price in quarterly periods. The capability of BNNMAS is evaluated by applying both on fundamental and technical DAX stock price data and comparing the outcomes with the results of other methods such as genetic algorithm neural network (GANN) and some standard models like generalized regression neural network (GRNN), etc. The model tested for predicting DAX stock price a period of time that global financial crisis was faced to economics. The results show that BNNMAS significantly performs accurate and reliable, so it can be considered as a suitable tool for predicting stock price specially in a long term periods.     

Effects of apparent image velocity and complexity on the dynamic visual field using a high-speed train driving simulator

Train driving is a highly visual task. The visual capabilities of the train driver affects driving safety and driving performance. Understanding the effects of train speed and background image complexity on the visual behavior of the high-speed train driver is essential for optimizing performance and safety. This study investigated the role of the apparent image velocity and complexity on the dynamic visual field of drivers. Participants in a repeated-measures experiment drove a train at nine different speeds in a state-of-the-art high-speed train simulator. Eye movement analysis indicated that the effect of image velocity on the dynamic visual field of high-speed train driver was significant while image complexity had no effect on it. The fixation range was increasingly concentrated on the middle of the track as the speed increased, meanwhile there was a logarithmic decline in fixation range for areas surrounding the track. The extent of the visual search field decreased gradually, both vertically and horizontally, as the speed of train increased, and the rate of decrease was more rapid in the vertical direction. A model is proposed that predicts the extent of this tunnel vision phenomenon as a function of the train speed.Relevance to industryThis finding can be used as a basis for the design of high-speed railway system and as a foundation for improving the operational procedures of high-speed train driver for safety.     

Design criterion for fatigue strengthening of riveted beams in a 120-year-old railway metallic bridge using pre-stressed CFRP plates

This study presents a design criterion developed for fatigue strengthening of a 120-year-old metallic railway bridge in Switzerland and presents a pre-stressed un-bonded reinforcement (PUR) system developed to apply the strengthening. The PUR system uses carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) plates; however, unlike conventional pre-stressed CFRP reinforcement methods, preparation of the existing metallic bridge surface is not required. This decreases the time required for on-site strengthening procedures. The principle of the constant life diagram (CLD) and two fatigue failure criteria (Johnson and Goodman) are described. Analytical formulations are developed based on the CLD method to determine the minimum CFRP pre-stress level required to prevent fatigue crack initiation. The PUR system uses an applied pre-stress force to reduce the mean stress level (and stress ratio) to shift an existing fatigue-susceptible metallic detail from the ‘at risk’ finite life regime to the ‘safe’ infinite life regime. The applied CLD method is particularly valuable when the stress history of the detail is not known and it is difficult to assess the remaining fatigue life. Moreover, it is shown that the currently adopted approach in many structural codes which emphasizes stress range as the dominant parameter influencing fatigue life are non-conservative for tension–tension stress patterns (i.e., stress ratios of 0 < R < 1). Analyses show that the modified Johnson formula accurately reflects the combined effect of stress range, mean stress level, and material properties, and offers a relatively easy design procedure. Details of a retrofit field application on members of a riveted wrought iron railway bridge are given. A wireless sensor network (WSN) system is used for long-term monitoring of the on-site CFRP stress levels and temperature of the retrofitted details. WSN measurements indicate that increases in ambient temperature result in increased CFRP pre-stress levels.     

用于发光温度传感的金属有机框架材料

金属有机框架(Metal organic frameworks,MOFs)由于其显著的结构多样性和可调的发光性能,为制备不同种类的发光传感器提供了良好契机。近年来,利用发光MOFs探测温度传感技术受到了人们的广泛关注。结合对发光测温的描述后,总结了发光型MOF温度计的最新研究进展,重点介绍了双发射型MOF在温度传感领域中的广泛应用。     

Static and free vibration analysis of functionally graded plates based on a new quasi-3D and 2D shear deformation theories

In this study, two dimensional (2D) and quasi three-dimensional (quasi-3D) shear deformation theories are presented for static and free vibration analysis of single-layer functionally graded (FG) plates using a new hyperbolic shape function. The material of the plate is inhomogeneous and the material properties assumed to vary continuously in the thickness direction by three different distributions; power-law, exponential and Mori–Tanaka model, in terms of the volume fractions of the constituents. The fundamental governing equations which take into account the effects of both transverse shear and normal stresses are derived through the Hamilton's principle. The closed form solutions are obtained by using Navier technique and then fundamental frequencies are found by solving the results of eigenvalue problems. In-plane stress components have been obtained by the constitutive equations of composite plates. The transverse stress components have been obtained by integrating the three-dimensional stress equilibrium equations in the thickness direction of the plate. The accuracy of the present method is demonstrated by comparisons with the different 2D, 3D and quasi-3D solutions available in the literature.     

浅谈氯碱氢的一种深度脱水工艺

概述了氢的主要工业生产方法和实际应用,详细介绍了氯碱氢三级脱水工艺过程,并运用在线分析手段,准确显示了干燥过程中的氯碱氢水分含量变化规律。     

Nonlinear response in glass fibre non-crimp fabric reinforced vinylester composites

This paper addresses the nonlinear stress-strain response in glass fibre non-crimp fabric reinforced vinylester composite laminates subjected to in-plane tensile loading. The nonlinearity is shown to be a combination of brittle and plastic failure. It is argued that the shift from plastic to brittle behaviour in the vinylester is caused by the state of stress triaxiality caused by the interaction between fibre and vinylester. A model combining damage and plasticity is calibrated and evaluated using data from extensive experimental testing. The onset of damage is predicted using the Puck failure criterion, and the evolution of damage is calibrated from the observed softening in plies loaded in transverse tension. Shear loading beyond linear elastic response is observed to result in irreversible strains. A yield criterion is implemented for shear deformation. A strain hardening law is fitted to the stress-strain response observed in shear loaded plies. Experimental results from a selection of laminates with different layups are used to verify the numerical models. A complete set of model parameters for predicting elastic behaviour, strength and post failure softening is presented for glass fibre non-crimped fabric reinforced vinylester. The predicted behaviour from using these model parameters are shown to be in good agreement with experimental results.     

Application of higher order spectral features and support vector machines for bearing faults classification

Condition monitoring and fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings timely and accurately are very important to ensure the reliability of rotating machinery. This paper presents a novel pattern classification approach for bearings diagnostics, which combines the higher order spectra analysis features and support vector machine classifier. The use of non-linear features motivated by the higher order spectra has been reported to be a promising approach to analyze the non-linear and non-Gaussian characteristics of the mechanical vibration signals. The vibration bi-spectrum (third order spectrum) patterns are extracted as the feature vectors presenting different bearing faults. The extracted bi-spectrum features are subjected to principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction. These principal components were fed to support vector machine to distinguish four kinds of bearing faults covering different levels of severity for each fault type, which were measured in the experimental test bench running under different working conditions. In order to find the optimal parameters for the multi-class support vector machine model, a grid-search method in combination with 10-fold cross-validation has been used. Based on the correct classification of bearing patterns in the test set, in each fold the performance measures are computed. The average of these performance measures is computed to report the overall performance of the support vector machine classifier. In addition, in fault detection problems, the performance of a detection algorithm usually depends on the trade-off between robustness and sensitivity. The sensitivity and robustness of the proposed method are explored by running a series of experiments. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve made the results more convincing. The results indicated that the proposed method can reliably identify different fault patterns of rolling element bearings based on vibration signals.     

Inverted pendulum stabilization: Characterization of codimension-three triple zero bifurcation via multiple delayed proportional gains

The paper considers the problem of stabilization of systems possessing a multiple zero eigenvalue at the origin. The controller that we propose, uses multiple delayed measurements instead of derivative terms. Doing so, we increase the performances of the closed loop in presence of system uncertainties and/or noisy measurements. The problem formulation and the analysis is presented through a classical engineering problem which is the stabilization of an inverted pendulum on a cart moving horizontally. On one hand, we perform a nonlinear analysis of the center dynamics described by a three dimensional system of ordinary differential equations with a codimension-three triple zero bifurcation. On the other hand, we present the complementary stability analysis of the corresponding linear time invariant system with two delays describing the behavior around the equilibrium. The aim of this analysis is to characterize the possible local bifurcations. Finally, the proposed control scheme is numerically illustrated and discussed.     

Theoretical investigation of solvent effects on the selective hydrogenation of furfural over Pt(111)

It was well known that solvent effect plays a very important role in the catalytic reaction. There are many theoretical studies on the solvent effect in homogeneous catalysis while there are few theoretical studies on the solvent effect in the heterogeneous catalytic reaction and there has been no work to investigate the solvent effect on furfural transformation in heterogeneous catalysis. In the present work, both the density functional calculations and the microkinetic analysis were performed to study the selective hydrogenation of furfural over Pt(111) in the presence of methanol as well as toluene and compared with that in the gas condition. The present results indicated that the methanol can enhance the adsorption strength of furfural and other oxygen-containing reaction species due to its relatively strong polarity properties and this can be a main reason for solvent-induced high activity and selectivity. Another reason is that reaction paths study showed that the presence of methanol solvent makes the dehydrogenation of furfural less thermochemical due to the fact that furfural is more stabilized than that of dehydrogenation species, and methanol also has an inhibition effect on the dehydrogenation of furfural in the kinetic aspect, and further energetic span theory proves highest activity and selectivity for hydrogenation in methanol solvent of vapor, methanol and toluene. Moreover, microkinetic model simulation demonstrated that the activity and selectivity of hydrogenation in methanol is both higher than that in vapor and toluene. The much higher activity in methanol is due to the stabilized adsorbed reactants in the surface, which leads to a higher surface coverage of furfural. It might be proposed based on the present work that a solvent with relatively strong polarity may be favorable for the high selective hydrogenation of furfural.