Discrimination between accelerated life models via Approximate Bayesian Computation

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is widely used in high-reliability product estimation to get relevant information about an item's performance and its failure mechanisms. To analyse the observed ALT data, reliability practitioners need to select a suitable accelerated life model based on the nature of the stress and the physics involved. A statistical model consists of (i) a lifetime distribution that represents the scatter in product life and (ii) a relationship between life and stress. In practice, several accelerated life models could be used for the same failure mode and the choice of the best model is far from trivial. For this reason, an efficient selection procedure to discriminate between a set of competing accelerated life models is of great importance for practitioners. In this paper, accelerated life model selection is approached by using the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) method and a likelihood-based approach for comparison purposes. To demonstrate the efficiency of the ABC method in calibrating and selecting accelerated life model, an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out using different distances to measure the discrepancy between the empirical and simulated times of failure data. Then, the ABC algorithm is applied to real accelerated fatigue life data in order to select the most likely model among five plausible models. It has been demonstrated that the ABC method outperforms the likelihood-based approach in terms of reliability predictions mainly at lower percentiles particularly useful in reliability engineering and risk assessment applications. Moreover, it has shown that ABC could mitigate the effects of model misspecification through an appropriate choice of the distance function.     

弱渗透松散和坚硬岩石的渗透性测定方法

固体有害废物安全填埋场基础弱渗透岩石的渗透性,大多数情况下都由实验室和野外方法测定．测定方法的适用性取决于岩石种类、岩体状态和渗透性数量级别．在同一实验段内采用不同的实验方法,一情况下导致产生两个数量级的误差,而更大的不可靠性与使用不同的评价方法有关．因为可靠并可引用的渗透性测定值在废物安全填埋场建设中对地质屏障的评价具有重大意义,如果各地能同时列出科研规划,共同研究对所有可能存在的地质屏障岩石进行全面分析评价,确定不同实验方法之间相关关系,以及使评价方法尽可能统一,是十分必要的     

Virtual Mechatronic/Robotic laboratory – A step further in distance learning

The implementation of the distance learning and e-learning in technical disciplines (like Mechanical and Electrical Engineering) is still far behind the grown practice in narrative disciplines (like Economy, management, etc.). This comes out from the fact that education in technical disciplines inevitably involves laboratory exercises and this fact drastically increases the complexity of a potential e-learning system. New approach and new specific knowledge are needed to develop such a system. We expect to meet the requirements of distance learning by developing the software-based laboratory exercises, i.e., a virtual laboratory. To fully substitute a physical system like laboratory equipment, one must emulate its full dynamics. The mathematical model in the form of differential equations will be applied to calculate dynamics and provide the data that would otherwise be measured on a physical system – this means simulation.     

Towards an ICT-based psychology: E-psychology

Cognitive science is the scientific domain which studies, analyzes, simulates and infers for various aspects, functions and procedures of human mentality such as, thinking, logic, language, knowledge, memory, learning, perception and the ability to solve problems. E-psychology is in close relation with the cognitive science domain, but expands beyond it, as e-psychology is the efficient convergence of psychology and Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). E-psychology offers a number of services such as supporting, diagnosis, assessment, therapy, counseling, intervention and tests through an effective exploitation of ICTs. This article presents a user-friendly, flexible and adaptive electronic platform, which supports both synchronous and asynchronous e-psychology activities through the use of informative and communicative tools and services, which can be adapted to support various methods of e-psychology activities. It is important to underline that e-psychology is not an alternative psychology field, but a resource to enhance the conventional psychology process.     

Formal model for assigning human resources to teams in software projects

Context

Human resources play a critical role in software project success. However, people are still the least formalized factor in today’s process models. Generally, people are assigned to roles and project teams are formed on the basis of project leaders’ experience of people, constraints (e.g. availability) and skill requirements. Yet this process has to take multiple factors into account. Few works in the literature model this process. Most of these are informal proposals focusing on the individual assignment of people to project tasks and do not consider other aspects like team formation as a whole.

Objective

In this paper we formulate a formal model for assigning human resources to software project teams. Additionally, we describe the key results of the knowledge management process enacted to output the elements of the model.

Method

The model elements were identified using the Delphi expert consultation method and applying psychological tests. The proposed model was implemented in a software tool and validated on two software development organization assignment scenarios.

Results

We built a formal model for the process of assigning human resources to software project teams. This model takes into account as many factors as possible and aids the assignment of individuals to project roles, as well as the formation of the team as a whole.We found that the rules that were identified to form software development project teams are useful. From the tests we found that model implementation was feasible (all the executions of the implemented problem-solving algorithms output feasible solutions in response times that can be considered as acceptable).

Conclusion

Using the Delphi method we were able to propose software project roles and competences. Psychological tests and data mining tools identified useful rules for forming software project teams. These were used to build a formal model. This model was built into a tool that returns role assignments in acceptable response times. This decision support tool helps managers assign people to roles and to form teams. Using the tool, project leaders can flexibly evaluate different team make-ups, taking into account several factors, as well as different constraints and objectives.     

A bootstrap goodness of fit test for the generalized Pareto distribution

This paper proposes a bootstrap goodness of fit test for the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPd) with shape parameter γ. The proposed test is an intersection–union test which tests separately the cases of γ≥0 and γ<0 and rejects if both cases are rejected. If the test does not reject, then it is known whether the shape parameter γ is either positive or negative. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment was conducted to assess the power of performance of the intersection–union test. The GPd hypothesis was tested on a data set containing Mexico City’s ozone levels. ¹     

A study on the use of statistical tests for experimentation with neural networks: Analysis of parametric test conditions and non-parametric tests

In this paper, we focus on the experimental analysis on the performance in artificial neural networks with the use of statistical tests on the classification task. Particularly, we have studied whether the sample of results from multiple trials obtained by conventional artificial neural networks and support vector machines checks the necessary conditions for being analyzed through parametrical tests. The study is conducted by considering three possibilities on classification experiments: random variation in the selection of test data, the selection of training data and internal randomness in the learning algorithm.The results obtained state that the fulfillment of these conditions are problem-dependent and indefinite, which justifies the need of using non-parametric statistics in the experimental analysis.     

基于LabVIEW的移动通信路测同步技术

介绍一种基于图像化编程软件LabVIEW开发的使用现有商用测试设备和商用GPS接收机实现的同步技术。对该软件实现中的多线程编程和开发工具选择、系统设计和编程等过程进行描述。现场使用测试表明,作为一种有效的低成本方案,该技术可方便地解决地理位置和被测数据在移动测试中的同步问题。     

VLCC中的DAG并行算法

基于组件的密码学虚拟实验室（VLCC）采用有向无环图（DAG）的拓扑排序机制管理组件。在分析VLCC各组件之间的数据依赖和运行次序关系的基础上,提出一种新的基于Java多线程机制和“唤醒”机制的DAG并行算法。与拓扑排序算法相比,具有低算法时间复杂度的特点。实验结果表明,系统在新算法下较大地缩短了系统运行时间,提高资源使用效率和用户满意度,能更好地完善VLCC。     

科研实验室计算机网络的规划与实现

本文提出了建立科研实验室网络的规划方法,并给出了一个此类网络的实例。