Parametric and nonparametric Bayesian model specification: A case study involving models for count data

In this paper we present the results of a simulation study to explore the ability of Bayesian parametric and nonparametric models to provide an adequate fit to count data of the type that would routinely be analyzed parametrically either through fixed-effects or random-effects Poisson models. The context of the study is a randomized controlled trial with two groups (treatment and control). Our nonparametric approach uses several modeling formulations based on Dirichlet process priors. We find that the nonparametric models are able to flexibly adapt to the data, to offer rich posterior inference, and to provide, in a variety of settings, more accurate predictive inference than parametric models.     

Modelling diffusion-controlled kinetics in equilibrium and driven alloys

Summary We introduce a very simple model for thermally activated atomic migration on a lattice, and several techniques to handle it. For thermodynamical systems, the model can be used for simulating decomposition paths taking into account relevant metallurgical features. Close to equilibrium, the simplest mean-field approximation of the model can be linearized with respect to the departure from equilibrium; one then gets a microscopic interpretation of classical phenomenological coefficients, such as mobility, interfacial transfer coefficient, rate constants for the coupled relaxation of concentration and order fields. Further away from the equilibrium, the nonlinearities can be taken into account in a consistent way. For driven alloys, i.e. alloys submitted to external forcing, forced atomic migration is added to the model and new features emerge: the model is supported by several experimental results some of which confirmed its predictions a posteriori.     

中和室脉冲进气的蒙特卡罗模拟及实验验证

对于中和室内的脉冲气体，用蒙特卡罗方法模拟了气体压力沿轴向的分布。并用模拟进气系统和气压瞬时测量系统，对模拟结果进行了验证。得到与模拟结果较为一致的曲线，从而为注入器真空系统的设计提供了可靠的依据。并通过实验结果，给出了气体靶厚的建立时间约为６０ｍｓ。     

用MONTECARLO方法研究分光光度法在比色分析中的精度

对使用分光光度法进行比色分析时的误差特性及工作曲线的计算做了讨论，给出了在测试数据不等时的拟合工作曲线的最小二乘算法，并使用ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ方法定量地分析了测试精度与试验条件间的具体关系。     

Thermodynamics-inspired inverse halftoning viamultiple halftone images

Based on an analogy between thermodynamics and Bayesian inference,inverse halftoning was formulated using multiple halftone images based on Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal(MPM) estimate.Applying Monte Carlo simulation to a set of snapshots of the Q-Ising model,it was demonstrated that optimal performance is achieved around the Bayes-optimal condition within statistical uncertainty and that the performance of the Bayes-optimal solution is superior to that of the maximum-a-posteriori(MAP) estimation which is a deterministic limit of the MPM estimate.These properties were qualitatively confirmed by the mean-field theory using an infinite-range model established in statistical mechanics.Additionally,a practical and useful method was constructed using the statistical mechanical iterative method via the Bethe approximation.Numerical simulations for a 256-grayscale standard image show that Bethe approximation works as good as the MPM estimation if the parameters are set appropriately.     

《计算机组装及维护》课程项目教学法研究

项目教学法对于中高职院校培养学生的实际操作能力十分有效,针对《计算机组装与维护》这门课程,通过项目设置、任务分解、组织完成的形式,激发学生学习的兴趣,提高了学生的实际动手能力,取得较好的教学效果。     

水工钢闸门主梁模糊失效概率计算方法研究

为合理计算水工钢闸门主梁模糊失效概率,分别将主梁相对变形当作一个随机变量及三个变量的组合,采用积分法、当量随机化方法及蒙特卡罗法进行了计算。当相对变形为一个随机量时,采用积分法及当量随机化方法计算,两者的差别在于积分法用隶属函数描述模糊限值,当量随机化方法是将模糊限值当量作为一个随机量。当相对变形看作三个变量的组合时采用蒙特卡罗法进行计算,该方法考虑了三个变量的分布特性,更符合实际情况,模糊限值也用随机量表示。计算表明,积分法与当量随机化方法结果相近,验证了当量随机化方法的精度;蒙特卡罗法结果与相对变形服从正态分布时、用当量随机化方法计算的结果接近,故主梁相对变形服从正态分布更为合理。三种计算方法中,当量随机化方法计算失效概率相较于其它方法有计算过程简便,效率高的优点。     

曝光数据流优化问题的蒙特卡罗算法

集成工艺中控制图形发生器产生掩模图形的数据流文件的数据排列顺序优化,是一个其结点数可达数千个之多的大规模旅行商问题(从镜头架的位置,即每个矩形的矩心为结点),常规算法早已不适用。本文采用多阶段蒙特卡罗算法并加以改进,补充了“分层优化模式”,邻接结点的预合并和在各个阶段末提取共同子路径并删去相关结点等一系列逐步缩小问题规模的措施,形成了一个实用的优化算法。相应的软件已成功地应用于薄膜磁头的数据流文件的优化。     

A parallel Monte Carlo search algorithm for the conformational analysis of polypeptides

In recent years several approaches have been proposed to overcome the multiple-minima problem associated with nonlinear optimization techniques used in the analysis of molecular conformations. One such technique based on a parallel Monte Carlo search algorithm is analyzed. Experiments on the Intel iPSC/2 confirm that the attainable parallelism is limited by the underlying acceptance rate in the Monte Carlo search. It is proposed that optimal performance can be achieved in combination with vector processing. Tests on both the IBM 3090 and Intel iPSC/2-VX indicate that vector performance is related to molecule size and vector pipeline latency.     

焊接热影响区微观结构演化的蒙特卡罗计算机模拟方法

焊接热影响区是影响焊接性能的主要区域。焊接热影响区的晶粒长大常常导致焊接热影响区成为性能薄弱的环节，对焊接热影响区晶粒长大的研究一直是焊接接头的重要研究课题。焊接热影响区微观结构演化与诸多因素密切相关，是一个复杂的过程。运用适当的计算机方法进行模拟，完成对晶粒生长的完全预测，具有重要的意义，可以为优化焊接工艺参数，提高焊接质量提供依据。在此对在模拟焊接热影响区微观结构的演化时采用的基本方法进行综述。